Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[ℬête Noire]

why do you want a dual motor? I can't understand why people are willing to pay an extra $5k for a marginally faster 0-60 time?

1) "Less than $5K", a good guess is $4K but we'll see.
2) Higher efficiency though improved traction thus extra range, potentially around 10% (not clear yet if about that or below it).
3) More "sure-footed" on poor traction surfaces.

 

[boiler81]

why do you want a dual motor? I can't understand why people are willing to pay an extra $5k for a marginally faster 0-60 time?

Forget about whether RWD traction is adequate in winter... because with AWD and rated all-season tires, I can drive through the snow covered mountain passes each winter, without having to chain up (mandatory for RWD).
Every laid down on a cold wet slushy highway shoulder struggling to get chains on...never again for my AWD M3. It will be worth every penny.
Oh and added performance, handling, and range is a bonus.

 

[gregd]

Ummm you know that is not the main purpose of AWD right? lol

It's been said that the primary effect of AWD is to get you stranded farther from civilization.

That said, in addition to the above posted list, there is also the ability to pass through chain control checkpoints without having to put on tire chains (even if you don't actually need them).

 

[AMIYY4YOU]

Ummm you know that is not the main purpose of AWD right? lol

Right, but in an electric vehicle the dual motor is almost useless given the center of mass. People's fear of RWD in the snow is pointless with a Tesla because the center of mass is virtually next to the normal force whereas with an ICE its very far away which causes fishtailing. I just don't see the value.

 

[AMIYY4YOU]

It's been said that the primary effect of AWD is to get you stranded farther from civilization.

That said, in addition to the above posted list, there is also the ability to pass through chain control checkpoints without having to put on tire chains (even if you don't actually need them).

OK I see your point with someone who lives in an area where there are tire chain checkpoints? But I live in Boston where it snows pretty heavily and we don't have that kind of crazy stuff. I've heard the RWD M3 handles super well in the snow even with all season tires, but I read (and it seems logical to believe that) having snow tires helps even more than having the incremental dual motor.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

why do you want a dual motor? I can't understand why people are willing to pay an extra $5k for a marginally faster 0-60 time?

Your profile says you're from Boston. Shouldn't be THAT hard to figure out why I want Dual Motors....


and unlike an ICE car, AWD is actually more efficient in a Tesla. So yes...I want the marginally faster 0-60, the traction, AND the range.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

OK I see your point with someone who lives in an area where there are tire chain checkpoints? But I live in Boston where it snows pretty heavily and we don't have that kind of crazy stuff. I've heard the RWD M3 handles super well in the snow even with all season tires, but I read (and it seems logical to believe that) having snow tires helps even more than having the incremental dual motor.

I live 40 miles west of Boston, where the difference in elevation means you get rain, and I get 8" of snow. But mostly I'm getting it for the range. If the actual range of the RWD is any indication, I may be able to go well into the 300s with an AWD 3, and the ability to skip a Supercharger or 2 in the Northeast Corridor is a huge timesaver on long trips.

 

[EVNow]

Q1 2018: 13,100 Model S/X and 12,200 Model 3s
Total = 162,545 + 13,100 + 12,200= 187,845

Q2 2018: 13,100 Model S/X and 31,800 Model 3s
Total = 187,845 + 13,100 + 31,800 = 232,745

Current totals as of end of Feb (from insideEVs) is

Model S/X : 3,500
Model 3 : 4,300

Bloomberg puts Model 3 at around 6k (8697 - 2686).

I'd say chances of S/X hitting 13k and especially Model 3 hitting 31k are very slim.

 

[AMIYY4YOU]

Your profile says you're from Boston. Shouldn't be THAT hard to figure out why I want Dual Motors....


and unlike an ICE car, AWD is actually more efficient in a Tesla. So yes...I want the marginally faster 0-60, the traction, AND the range.

If you were talking about an ICE RWD vs AWD I would agree that it's not hard to figure out. You said in your second post you're mostly getting it 'for the range'. I don't see value in paying 4k more for ~10%(?) extra range. Purely from the weather and handling perspective, the point I'm making is that the RWD option is perfectly adequate particularly if you plan to get dedicated snow tires. IMHO snow tires would make a much larger difference for handling in snow than AWD does given the weight distribution of a Tesla (including the Model 3).

I notice there are also a lot of haters disagreeing with me and are touting AWD, but no one has been able to disprove my statements above, so I'm sticking with my sentiment and not wasting an additional 4k for marginal range and speed benefits.

 

[TEG]

I wish Tesla would publish specs for the AWD soon. (Range, 0-60, top speed, price). We are making a lot of assumptions based on what they did with Model S & X, but really don't know the details yet.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @EVNow. Neither Bloomberg nor insideEVs have an estimate for Q2 2018 right now and Tesla won't release US numbers for Q2 either. If Tesla were to release US sales numbers and if Bloomberg and insideEVs had estimates for Q2 2018 right now, we could write those down and come back when the actual numbers are released. This way we would find out who is better at guessing the actual Q2 2018 numbers 4 months in advance. However, we can't do that. Therefore why comment on the accuracy of an estimate that we can't measure instead of picking something else that we can actually measure?

I encourage you to pick a number that Tesla will release so we can compare the accuracy of estimates by different sources. I don't mind at all if my estimates are compared to Bloomberg or InsideEVs. I encourage people to do that. On 2 or 3 April 2018, Tesla will release these numbers:

#1 Model 3 global production in Q1 2018
#2 Model 3 global deliveries in Q1 2018

Bloomberg's number here will be comparable to #1 (after we subtract 2,685). InsideEVs numbers here will be comparable to #2 assuming (1) InsideEVs will release an estimate for March 2018 before Tesla releases the actual number for Q1 2018 and (2) Tesla doesn't start deliveries to Canada by the end of Q1. I will make predictions for both #1 and #2 at the end this quarter.

 

[vinnie97]

I didn't get any feedback on my question before, but I have to surmise that the reason for a full week delay on invitation to configure across neighboring time zones (pacific and mountain) is simply due to a likely west coast prioritization. Since my delivery center is likely in Las Vegas, though I live in mountain, perhaps I should remove mountain zone from the equation entirely for simplicity's sake. However, I'm still tempted to rely more on the conservative estimate of 3-15 (mountain) versus 3-7 (pacific).

 

[ModelNforNerd]

If you were talking about an ICE RWD vs AWD I would agree that it's not hard to figure out. You said in your second post you're mostly getting it 'for the range'. I don't see value in paying 4k more for ~10%(?) extra range. Purely from the weather and handling perspective, the point I'm making is that the RWD option is perfectly adequate particularly if you plan to get dedicated snow tires. IMHO snow tires would make a much larger difference for handling in snow than AWD does given the weight distribution of a Tesla (including the Model 3).

I notice there are also a lot of haters disagreeing with me and are touting AWD, but no one has been able to disprove my statements above, so I'm sticking with my sentiment and not wasting an additional 4k for marginal range and speed benefits.

To each their own, but I look at it as getting all 3 benefits for that cost....so maybe a "glass mostly full" outlook.


EDIT: As you can see over there <~~~~ I have a RWD S. It IS the best RWD car I've ever driven in the snow (once I decided to put it in Chill Mode/Low Regen during storms), however.....a RWD w/good snow tires will never be > an AWD with equal tires. Physics.


And I'm not at the point where the $4,000 estimate worries me. I'll probably back down from Performance though, since that may end up being another 10-15K.

 

[EVNow]

Therefore why comment on the accuracy of an estimate that we can't measure instead of picking something else that we can actually measure?

Since you base the forecast on available data + Tesla forecast it is really a comment on Tesla's forecast. Ofcourse they could still make up in March.

Blooberg has a nice chart to show Tesla's shifting forecasts.

 

[TEG]

Since you base the forecast on available data + Tesla forecast it is really a comment on Tesla's forecast. Ofcourse they could still make up in March.
Blooberg has a nice chart to show Tesla's shifting forecasts.

My first thought when looking at that is "it is starting to fall flat..."

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Another 1k vin registered.

Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) on Twitter

 

[Troy]

Of course they could still make up in March.

The numbers you quoted are from 31st January. They are not the current numbers the estimator uses. The current number is 10,463 deliveries in Q1. It was 12,200 on 31st January.

I'd say chances of S/X hitting 13k ... are very slim.

I disagree. I think they will exceed 13K US deliveries in Q1 and then again in Q2. If you have a better estimate let's see it. However, I recommend estimating global S/X deliveries or production instead of US so we can measure the accuracy.

Bloomberg puts Model 3 at around 6k (8697 - 2686).

Their current production estimate is 8,771 units. My current production estimate on March 3rd on the estimator is 9,050 units. See cell D1219 here. The difference is only 279 units. That's already as close as it gets.

Current totals as of end of Feb (from insideEVs) is ...

Imagine you are trying to decide whether I'm good at estimates or not. Let's assume at the end of October 2017, I estimate that Tesla delivered only 100 Model 3s during that month. Then the next month, I estimate 200 Model 3s. Then December passes and you say where is the December estimate and I say let's wait a little more. We wait a few more days and Tesla releases the Q4 delivery number which is 1,550 units. After that, I make a quick calculation 1,550 - 100 - 200= 1,250 and tell you that my December estimate is 1,250 units. What would you say?

You would probably tell me that I didn't make any estimates at all and I just low-balled the first two months and then waited for Tesla to release the actual number and matched that. That's exactly what happened in Q4 with insideEVs except instead of 100, 200, they estimated 145 in Oct and 345 in Nov and then waited for Tesla's number instead of releasing an estimate for December. Therefore you mentioning their monthly estimates has zero credibility in my eyes. Hopefully, they won't repeat the same thing at the end of Q1.

 

[Troy]

Here are the current numbers the estimator uses. These were last updated on 26 Feb:

Deliveries
Q3 2017 219
Q4 2017 1,544
Q1 2018 10,463
Q2 2018 35,902
Q3 2018 61,778
Q4 2018 88,378

Production
Q3 2017 260
Q4 2017 2,425
Q1 2018 12,955
Q2 2018 39,024
Q3 2018 65,076
Q4 2018 90,727

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

This is getting fun! We were told 2500 by end of March. Then it was reiterated 2500 by end of March. Then we were told no need for new assembly line to hit 2500. Based on every one reporting vins, there have been no new production cars above 8500 being distributed since two weeks ago. Now tesla registered 1k extra of vins. Why not 10k to accommodate for 2500 per week?!

 

[nvx1977]

I notice there are also a lot of haters disagreeing with me and are touting AWD, but no one has been able to disprove my statements above

You aren't actually wrong. RWD on a Tesla is way better than RWD on an ICE. I used to have a BMW M3 in Boston, and that thing was all over the place in the winter. My RWD Model S handles soooo much better. Went up to Sunday River in a snowstorm, and people were shocked that the car was RWD and made it up the slopes to the resort.

Ultimately I made the same decision as you: RWD on the Model 3 was good enough. However AWD on a Tesla is much better than RWD on a Tesla. There's plenty of people who own both and can attest to this. I've even seen it characterized as Tesla AWD w/ all-seasons is better than Tesla RWD w/ winter tires. Some people will pay for that extra traction in the winter.