Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[Troy]

There is 50% chance the $7,500 federal tax credits will drop to $3,750 on 31st March 2018 and 50% chance it will happen on 30th June 2018. There is no third option. In early January 2018, they will have delivered 52% of RWD California orders and 0% of AWD orders. At that time, AWD buyers, including day 1 reservation holders, will be eager to get their car soon to qualify for the full federal tax credits. I don't see why it would make things better in terms of customer happiness to try to reach 60%, 70%, 80% delivery on the RWD list while the AWD list has twice the number of people and is close to 0%. Elon tweeted here about increasing customer happiness. I think many AWD buyers will be less than impressed if they waited in line but still missed the $7,500 while RWD buyers who reserved much later get their car in time.

I will watch the trends and see if more people are giving up on P or D versions to maximize the federal tax credits. If the recent rumors by Trev's source (link) are true, the tax credits will definitely drop to $3,750 after 31st March 2018.

 

[shrspeedblade]

There is 50% chance the $7,500 federal tax credits will drop to $3,750 on 31st March 2018 and 50% chance it will happen on 30th June 2018. There is no third option. In early January 2018, they will have delivered 52% of RWD California orders and 0% of AWD orders. At that time, AWD buyers, including day 1 reservation holders, will be eager to get their car soon to qualify for the full federal tax credits. I don't see why it would make things better in terms of customer happiness to try to reach 60%, 70%, 80% delivery on the RWD list while the AWD list has twice the number of people and is close to 0%. Elon tweeted here about increasing customer happiness. I think many AWD buyers will be less than impressed if they waited in line but still missed the $7,500 while RWD buyers who reserved much later get their car in time.

I will watch the trends and see if more people are giving up on P or D versions to maximize the federal tax credits. If the recent rumors by Trev's source (link) are true, the tax credits will definitely drop to $3,750 after 31st March 2018.

I just hope that if they hit the 200k in 4th quarter 2017, they ramp quicker to get more cars out before the end of 1st quarter 2018. Worse case scenario would be hitting the mark in late November or December.

 

[Ken7]

Does anyone know how many reservations there were by 4/15/16?

 

[Troy]

Does anyone know how many reservations there were by 4/15/16?

Hi, Ken.

• 339,443 until 15 April 2016 10 am PST, including 7,696 employee reservations, 8000 cancellations, and 4200 duplicates.
• 327,243 until 15 April 2016 10 am PST, after the 8000 cancellations, and the 4200 duplicates are removed. This count includes 7,696 employee reservations.
  
• 319,547 until 15 April 2016 10 am PST, excluding 7,696 employee reservations, 8000 cancellations, and 4200 duplicates.

In the Estimator of you enter 15 April 2016, it shows 319,547 but this excludes employees. Including employees, it should be around 327,243. The 8,000 cancellations and 4,200 duplicates that Tesla mentioned (see the second link) are already dropped from this count. These are the relevant data points:

325,000 @ 7 Apr 2016, 07:21 PST
373,000 @ 15 May 2016, 13:00 PST

The 373,000 number, released by Tesla was after 8000 cancellations and 4200 duplicates were removed based on their statement. Before those were removed, the number would have been 373,000+8,000+4,200= 385,000. This is the number comparable to previously announced reservation counts.

In other words, the count looked like this including cancellations, duplicates, and employees:
325,000 @ 7 Apr 2016, 07:21 PST
385,000 @ 15 May 2016, 13:00 PST

And like this excluding cancellations and duplicates but including employees:
314,870 @ 7 Apr 2016, 07:21 PST
373,000 @ 15 May 2016, 13:00 PST

Using these last two numbers, it is possible to calculate the exact reservation count at any point in time between those two dates.

 

[JoeCoolMan24]

Currently, the estimator shows 45,468 units in 2017. I will do a little more research and see if I should increase that slightly.

Your estimator has me listed as reservation number ~53,000, yet you still have a November 2017 delivery date for me. Or is your 45,468 figure subtracting employee cars?

 

[Troy]

Hi, @JoeCoolMan24. The "Global Reservation Number" in row 11 is not the only factor that determines the Global Production Sequence Number in row 19. The region, the trim level, and ownership status all affect the production sequence number and the delivery date.

Example 1:
Reservation time: 21st June 2017 10:00 (today)
Region: California
Ownership status on 15 Aug '17: Tesla owner
Trim level: Model 3 75

It shows 455,049 for the reservation number, 5,792 for the production sequence number and 22 Oct 2017 for delivery date. Even though this person reserved today, he would get his car very early because of his ownership status, region, and RWD selection.

Example 2:
Reservation time: 1st Apr 2016, 16:00
Region: California
Ownership status on 15 Aug '17: Tesla owner
Trim level: Model 3 75

It shows 204,577 for the reservation number, 38,049 for production sequence number and 30 Dec 2017 for delivery date. Even though this person reserved the next day after the reveal event, because he is in California and wants an RWD, he is getting his car this year.

 

[Ken7]

Hi, Ken.

• 339,443 until 15 April 2016 10 am PST, including 7,696 employee reservations, 8000 cancellations, and 4200 duplicates.
• 327,243 until 15 April 2016 10 am PST, after the 8000 cancellations, and the 4200 duplicates are removed. This count includes 7,696 employee reservations.
  
• 319,547 until 15 April 2016 10 am PST, excluding 7,696 employee reservations, 8000 cancellations, and 4200 duplicates.

In the Estimator of you enter 15 April 2016, it shows 319,547 but this excludes employees. Including employees, it should be around 327,243. The 8,000 cancellations and 4,200 duplicates that Tesla mentioned (see the second link) are already dropped from this count. These are the relevant data points:

325,000 @ 7 Apr 2016, 07:21 PST
373,000 @ 15 May 2016, 13:00 PST

The 373,000 number, released by Tesla was after 8000 cancellations and 4200 duplicates were removed based on their statement. Before those were removed, the number would have been 373,000+8,000+4,200= 385,000. This is the number comparable to previously announced reservation counts.

In other words, the count looked like this including cancellations, duplicates, and employees:
325,000 @ 7 Apr 2016, 07:21 PST
385,000 @ 15 May 2016, 13:00 PST

And like this excluding cancellations and duplicates but including employees:
314,870 @ 7 Apr 2016, 07:21 PST
373,000 @ 15 May 2016, 13:00 PST

Using these last two numbers, it is possible to calculate the exact reservation count at any point in time between those two dates.

Great info, Troy. Thanks much!

 

[tpatana]

Currently estimates Dec 7 2017 for me if I take RWD. April 2018 if I take 75D. If that's true for sure I'll take non-D, if just other options I want are available by then.

Btw., examples above the #2 did you mean non-owner?

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. I was thinking about what @tpatana said and I noticed a risk that might affect a specific group of buyers. If you are from the USA and you are considering the RWD to get your Model 3 sooner even though you prefer AWD and you reserved after 31st March 2016, 10:15 pm Pacific time, be aware that because many people are switching to the RWD, you might actually get your RWD later than you would have if you had selected AWD. That's not very good because you are not only getting the car late, you are also not getting the AWD version which was your first choice.

More people are switching to RWD which makes it difficult to get an RWD in 2017 unless you reserved early. If you have reserved after 31st March 2016, 10:15 pm Pacific time, I don't recommend selecting RWD to try to get the car sooner if you prefer AWD because potentially the RWD could be delayed all the way from December 2017 to June 2018. Don't switch if 2017 RWD delivery looks risky.

The percentage of people who are switching from AWD to RWD might increase suddenly if there is TV news etc. about federal tax credits ending soon for Tesla. So keep watching this thread. I will update the calculations as new information becomes available.

@tpatana, yes I meant non-owner in example #2.

 

[JoeCoolMan24]

Hey Troy, I don't expect you to have an answer, but just maybe an educated assumption. Do you think it's possible Tesla will give us an estimated delivery date based on the options we choose, and then allow us to tweak it and make changes to update that estimated date? I want to do anything I can to get the car before the end of 2017, but if accepting the default black interior means a November delivery, but a white interior would only push back my wait time until December, I'll take the extra month wait in order to get a higher preference.

Any guesses as to whether Tesla will keep us in the loop for delivery estimations dynamically?

 

[Troy]

Hi, @JoeCoolMan24. I don't think Tesla will provide that kind of dynamic estimate. They will probably just display a rough timeline for each option similar to what they did with the Model X. Check out the screenshots in this article. Look at the trim levels and the 5 seater option.

 

[beenmb]

Nice tool thank you. I'll bet the estimation is pretty close +/- a month or two.
Maybe add a little more +/- since Tesla has a habit of changing things. There must not be very many stones in Fremont, CA suitable for carving.

 

[tsla007]

Troy-You've improved this calculator to much more realistic dates-give or take a couple of months.
I now applaud your extreme efforts doing this over such a long span on time.

 

[Bokonon]

Hey @Troy, have you been working with the folks at Teslanomics on a web-form version of this calculator?

The reason I ask is because Teslarati just published an article stating that Teslanomics has "built" a Model 3 delivery calculator. The calculator is embedded within the article itself, and can be found on the Teslanomics website as well.

The calculator's input parameters and output are strikingly similar to your spreadsheet, and if I enter the same parameters into both calculators, I get the exact same results. This makes me believe that their calculator is actually built on top of your spreadsheet. However, I do not see anywhere where you are credited, nor do I see a link to your spreadsheet. In other words, Teslanomics seems to be claiming this work as its own (and the Teslarati article suggests the very same thing).

Given how much thought and research you've put into this tool, I just wanted to make sure you were aware of this situation, in the event that you hadn't given Teslanomics permission to use your work. At the very least, both Teslanomics and Teslarati should be giving you credit as the original author.

EDIT: In the full blog post on Teslanomics, I see that you are given credit for the data at the bottom. However, Teslarati does not give this credit, nor do they link to the full blog post. I also find it very disingenuous that Ben Sullins states in his video that he ("I") built the tool when in fact all he did was create a web form that runs your formulas and spits out the result... IMHO he should have given you full credit right up front. Alas, his choice to claim the work as his own only helps cement my view that his website is just a clickbait-mobile for monetizing cult-like following around Tesla and the Model 3. Very disappointing.

Anyway! Back to our regularly-scheduled programming...

 

[JoeCoolMan24]

Hey @Troy, have you been working with the folks at Teslanomics on a web-form version of this calculator?

The reason I ask is because Teslarati just published an article stating that Teslanomics has "built" a Model 3 delivery calculator. The calculator is embedded within the article itself, and can be found on the Teslanomics website as well.

The calculator's input parameters and output are strikingly similar to your spreadsheet, and if I enter the same parameters into both calculators, I get the exact same results. This makes me believe that their calculator is actually built on top of your spreadsheet. However, I do not see anywhere where you are credited, nor do I see a link to your spreadsheet. In other words, Teslanomics seems to be claiming this work as its own (and the Teslarati article suggests the very same thing).

Given how much thought and research you've put into this tool, I just wanted to make sure you were aware of this situation, in the event that you hadn't given Teslanomics permission to use your work. At the very least, both Teslanomics and Teslarati should be giving you credit as the original author.

EDIT: In the full blog post on Teslanomics, I see that you are given credit for the data at the bottom. However, Teslarati does not give this credit, nor do they link to the full blog post. I also find it very disingenuous that Ben Sullins states in his video that he ("I") built the tool when in fact all he did was create a web form that runs your formulas and spits out the result... IMHO he should have given you full credit right up front. Alas, his choice to claim the work as his own only helps cement my view that his website is just a clickbait-mobile for monetizing cult-like following around Tesla and the Model 3. Very disappointing.

Anyway! Back to our regularly-scheduled programming...

Yeah, I see what you're talking about. The end the video and the end of the description give Troy credit, but he says multiple times in the video that HE created this tool, it's even the first sentence of the video. That's BS. I think that guy has a huge ego and is looking to looking to let people stroke it a bit under false pretenses. Dick move, Ben.

 

[Troy]

Hi. Ben asked for permission to use the data. I don't mind anybody using the data or creating their version of the estimator. Since day 1, I tried to make all the data available. I created the data tab to explain how it works and to show the data sources. I even offered help with spreadsheet formulas. So I'm OK with anybody using the data. I think what Ben meant was, he created the web version. I don't know how his version works. He uses the tableau software. I have never used that. It's a shame that the video talks about the original version but never shows it and there is no link directly on the video and the description section is a bit cluttered.

 

[hoang51]

Yeah, I see what you're talking about. The end the video and the end of the description give Troy credit, but he says multiple times in the video that HE created this tool, it's even the first sentence of the video. That's BS. I think that guy has a huge ego and is looking to looking to let people stroke it a bit under false pretenses. Dick move, Ben.

Yeah, I saw the video too and I thought it was click bait. I knew that Troy had a spreadsheet up way before his video and I used it before, so when I saw Ben's video, I was like you're late. Towards the end of Ben's video, instead of maintaining that he built the tool, he then credits Troy towards the end of the video and in the description of the video. Really disingenuous.

 

[Snow Drift]

I thought maybe Troy was Teslanomics. The end result data was pretty spot on to what I was getting via the google doc.

 

[boiler81]

Yeah, I see what you're talking about. The end the video and the end of the description give Troy credit, but he says multiple times in the video that HE created this tool, it's even the first sentence of the video. That's BS. I think that guy has a huge ego and is looking to looking to let people stroke it a bit under false pretenses. Dick move, Ben.

Yes, not sure why Ben felt it a value to copy Troy's estimator and make it web based. Troy's is more detailed and provides more info. As mention Ben's also late to the party...great estimating tool Troy, Thx

 

[databen]

Hey folks, Troy and I have collaborated on several videos before where he provides the data. The tool "I" built was the Tableau version which uses his data and very similar logic. My tool is quite different in the interface, output, and doesn't require you to find an empty slot to get your prediction. Of course, I could not have done it without him which is why I credited him at the end of the video and added links in the description as well as in the top pinned comment.

If this upsets you at all I'd encourage you to unsubscribe, stop following, commenting, etc. It actually helps me focus on making things my audience loves without added noise.

The td;dr version about the video...

My target audience is global, and many would be intimidated by the spreadsheet format. So for that reason I decided to keep it out of the video and just reference it for those that want to dive deeper. As far as the website / description, those are written in a way to attract outside viewers using SEO. If you're unfamiliar with how SEO works there are many videos / pages explaining this online you can find with a simple google search.

If you're curious about how YouTube works, which may result in some things you don't like, Linus does a great job explaining this here:

I hope you all have a beautiful day!

Cheers,
Ben