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Mine has been that way for quite some time. Called tesla and they even put in a ticket to get it fixed. That was maybe 2 weeks ago -- still no fix.
Hi everybody. Here is the latest situation.
It looks like 5K/week production rate is going to happen shortly after Q3 2018. Therefore I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla says they are now expecting 5K/week at the end of Q3 instead of Q2. The spreadsheet estimator uses Tesla's expected production numbers. I need to change that. There is a conference call on 7 Feb. I will probably wait for that because otherwise, I would need to update again after that.
This is still not too bad. The two VIN based estimates (buyer VINs and NHTSA VINs) show 164K-169K deliveries in 2018. It's still a lot better than what some analists were expecting. More charts can be found here in the opening message or here in the invites spreadsheet.
@Merle Corey, I think you are talking about the spreadsheet estimator. The droplists in Google sheets don't work well on mobile devices. Try on a desktop or laptop computer if you are using a mobile device.
It looks like 5K/week production rate is going to happen shortly after Q3 2018. Therefore I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla says they are now expecting 5K/week at the end of Q3 instead of Q2. The spreadsheet estimator uses Tesla's expected production numbers. I need to change that. There is a conference call on 7 Feb. I will probably wait for that because otherwise, I would need to update again after that.
This is still not too bad. The two VIN based estimates (buyer VINs and NHTSA VINs) show 164K-169K deliveries in 2018. It's still a lot better than what some analists were expecting. More charts can be found here in the opening message or here in the invites spreadsheet.
@Merle Corey, I think you are talking about the spreadsheet estimator. The droplists in Google sheets don't work well on mobile devices. Try on a desktop or laptop computer if you are using a mobile device.
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Sanity says you're right. Optimist in me says"but but, the increase is not linear, it's exponential"Hi everybody. Here is the latest situation.
It looks like 5K/week production rate is going to happen shortly after Q3 2018. Therefore I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla says they are now expecting 5K/week at the end of Q3 instead of Q2. The spreadsheet estimator uses Tesla's expected production numbers. I need to change that. There is a conference call on 7 Feb. I will probably wait for that because otherwise, I would need to update again after that.
This is still not too bad. The two VIN based estimates (buyer VINs and NHTSA VINs) show 164K-169K deliveries in 2018. It's still a lot better than what some analists were expecting. More charts can be found here in the opening message or here in the invites spreadsheet.
@Merle Corey, I think you are talking about the spreadsheet estimator. The droplists in Google sheets don't work well on mobile devices. Try on a desktop or laptop computer if you are using a mobile device.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
Isn't that a shared sheet rather than individual instance? Mine kept changing back until I came to the conclusion that I was just in an edit fight with other people trying to use the sheet and just went to one of the duplicate blocks to the right. No problems after that.
P.S. Ah, hadn't realized you were basing estimate deliveries on Tesla's "we're going to get here at this time" curve, not your own empirical curve. Now the result makes more sense, I was struggling to see how it was going to hit my date. I'll be happy to see it straight up to confirm it, but I think I should be able to eyeball a much better estimate now based on that.
loyalty means you're willing to contribute more money to help Tesla. waiting in line is good but voting with cash is better. we all knew this going in. no point in dwelling on this fairness issue. in fact, you should be encouraging more AWD orders because it helps Tesla?
ℬête Noire
Active Member
I can't find the curve to try do a proper integral of the gap between the curve, so pending that here's my eyeballing of how far behind VIN estimate is vs Tesla's past stated goals, in total vehicles for each month.
Feb - 1400
Mar - 2400
Apr - 3200
May - 5100
June - 7200
In my example the estimator puts me late June, about 1 week short of end of month (which is rough, because I don't remember precise time of day on Apr 1 I signed up. Can't go by the email because the backlog in Tesla's mailer system didn't get me that email until some time Apr 2.
So by then the Tesla estimate is about 18000 behind. Extrapolating July production to continue to increasing that's about 5 weeks of production at the VIN estimate to make up that gap. So that'd put my VIN rate adjusted estimate near the July/Aug boundary. It could all get very squirrelly though depending if SR and AWD production in online by then and how that all shakes out in how they set priorities.
Feb - 1400
Mar - 2400
Apr - 3200
May - 5100
June - 7200
In my example the estimator puts me late June, about 1 week short of end of month (which is rough, because I don't remember precise time of day on Apr 1 I signed up. Can't go by the email because the backlog in Tesla's mailer system didn't get me that email until some time Apr 2.
So by then the Tesla estimate is about 18000 behind. Extrapolating July production to continue to increasing that's about 5 weeks of production at the VIN estimate to make up that gap. So that'd put my VIN rate adjusted estimate near the July/Aug boundary. It could all get very squirrelly though depending if SR and AWD production in online by then and how that all shakes out in how they set priorities.
Whether they start producing AWD next or SR, employees & owners are at the front of that line too. (As they should be.) I'm a non-owner whose estimate from Tesla is "early 2018" for SR. IF Tesla starts producing SR tomorrow, I don't think I'll get mine until Q4...maybe. Or maybe 2019. But if they decide to produce AWD next...non-owner's will have a long wait for a SR Model 3.I'll be so upset if they release dual motor before opening up first production to first day reservations (non-owners). That will be a royal fu to line standers.
As I'm planning to get first production (Dec-Feb delivery) opening awd will significantly set me back. Also, standing in line and having Elon tell us how much he appreciates all the line standers and online orders before reveal Would mean nothing because technically, one awd is around, first production is no longer first production but just a config with pup/or. Opening awd before non owners even get a chance at first at First production is even more frustrating especially because I actually need a car to replace my old and busted vehicle.
suwaneedad
Member
My gut says that aiding the ramp will dominate the priority decision-making by Tesla. The sluggish ramp is the biggest threat to the company's survival at present. It would be nothing short of bizarre for Elon to do anything that gets in the way of improving the ramp. That would mean fulfilling more and more first production vehicles prior to opening AWD production. Surely SR is later in the real queue since it's at lower margin. I'd expect incremental clarity from Tesla during or following the earnings call. Or, maybe not...since lack of clarity probably helps delay widespread deposit cancellations.
Looking at the source code of Tesla's estimator, I'd say we're seeing fairly old estimations (Nov. 2017). Also, "Late 2018" for Europe is more like "Early 2019" ("currentStartDate":"2018-12-31"), at least for my reservation April 4th 2016.
Well yeah, that’s the last time Tesla updated any estimates, shortly after their last quarterly conference call. We’ve seen no evidence that they’ve tweaked the delivery estimates on their site since updating them in early November. Expect to see updated estimates shortly after the quarterly conference call this Wednesday.
Estimator says delivery on Feb 7. Picking up tomorrow, Feb 6. I would call that spot on.
Lhshockey24
Member
I have the same estimate as you in the sheet, but have not even received an invite. Reservation was placed on 12/24/16. When did you place yours?
Is it known at that point what is the ‘conversion rate’ for already placed deposits? I.e. what is %age of orders vs initial deposits? Does this number differs a lot from what was expected initially?
Related question - is it expected for this number to be visibly different between current owners vs non-owners?
Related question - is it expected for this number to be visibly different between current owners vs non-owners?
Well, my status changed somewhat. Standard battery changed to "Early 2019". First production and dual motor are still "Late 2018".
I am an owner that reserved on 01/24/18.
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