It played out as I thought it would. Here is what I think happened:
Tesla's 220 miles estimate for SR was conservative. They knew the actual score would be higher. We don't know the actual score because EPA hasn't released it yet but using the LR and SR cell counts that were leaked
here in 2017 and EPA scores of LR, I'm calculating that the SR pack with 2976 cells actually scores ~234 miles EPA rated range.
I think to make use of this difference they came up with the SR+ idea as an afterthought. To increase the range gap between SR and SR+ I think Tesla increased the ~234 miles score to 240 miles by using alternative multipliers instead of 70% to convert dyno scores to range numbers. EPA allows this. This is actually a common method they use.
In fact, Model 3 LR AWD didn't quite score 310 miles either but they really wanted exactly 310 miles for all three versions, so they used the same method there. At the time, I found the alternative multipliers in an EPA document. It was published on Electrek
here. To summarize, SR+ buyers are getting what was originally planned to be SR's battery and SR's range.
This thread started on 1st March 2019 when Tesla added SR to the design studio. On the same day, I wrote message #22 above and predicted that SR would be discontinued because most people buy SR+ anyway. Unsurprisingly, Tesla's blog post
here mentions the same reason. Quote:
"Given the popularity of the Standard Plus relative to the Standard, ..." Therefore, as far as predictions go, I'm happy with mine. Here are other predictions:
- Soon the off-menu SR option will be gone.
- Eventually, they will replace SR+ with SR AWD. All Model 3s will be AWD.
- When they start Model Y production, SR will be completely discontinued. They will only have LR AWD and P versions of Model 3 and Y.
I think the $35K version will be discontinued because Elon has now kept his promise and they already have the replacement in place which is the $37K version. Most people will buy the $37K SR+ anyway which means $35K SR will be gone.
Also, based on my calculation, I think SR and SR+ will have the exact same battery and the actual EPA score will be 240 mi for both because the SR pack with 2976 cells can in fact achieve 240 mi EPA. I think the 220 mi SR score is a voluntary reduction.