I have studied the Tracker endlessly and while there is no one specific thing that tells you exactly when your car will be produced, transported, and delivered there are a few things that can help you gauge it pretty well.
1. Of the 51 cars that have been delivered on the Tracker so far, none have been delivered more than 18 days after their VIN was assigned.
2. Location of delivery matters. The vast majority of cars delivered so far have been in California.
3. Once I got a VIN I was able to schedule a delivery date by going into the Service Center and requesting one. However, they were ultra conservative about what dates I could choose. He said that if it comes in early they would move the date up.
4. They typically will deliver a car to the person with the lower order number first IF there are two people who ordered the exact same car at the exact same location and neither one had a previous RWD/LR order that they were converting over. Yes, there are exceptions to this rule but that is generally what they try to do if the orders are truly identical.
5. Your order date/order number mean absolutely nothing if they don't have your specific configuration going to your specific delivery center. If they have a blue one with white seats going to your delivery center and you ordered any other colors someone who ordered WAY after you might get that car before you get yours. Logistics seems to matter the most for who gets a car and when they get it.
. Wish Tesla offered a brighter blue option.
