Model S range and interior update imminent?

[Chaserr]

This isn't a Tesla improvement, it's a Samsung battery improvement. The Model 3 uses batteries manufactured by Samsung (albeit by Samsung employees that work inside the gigafactory and produce batteries solely for Tesla contracts) and those 21700 battery cells have a published capacity of 4200–4800 each, currently as opposed to the 1500–3600 capacity per cell in the older packs used by Model S and X. Capacities of publicly available cells have always been different than Tesla battery cells, which use the standard packaging but customized chemistry and I expect that will continue with the 21700 although nobody has disassembled one of them yet to verify. 21700 batteries available on any website store have already been verified to have substantially higher capacity per cell than Tesla ever shipped in a Model S or X. This commercial availability is why we know that the cells are both higher capacity and cheaper. Tesla doesn't sell them, but Samsung does, as does LG and I'm sure plenty of knockoffs by now as well.

The huge jumps in cell capacity that you read about from some distant 5 year future are not what we are talking about when we discuss the currently available 21700 lithium cell here. Speculation is not the same as publicly available commercial technology, and while Tesla sells speculation in the AP system, it sells physically real and verified batteries that are already in customer hands.

If you're interested in the underlying technology rather than hearing about it second hand and being confused with who makes what or what's real and what's imaginary when it comes to these commercial products, start here: List of battery sizes - Wikipedia

 

[electracity]

Samsung? I really need to do a better job of keeping up with the news.......

 

[brkaus]

Samsung? I really need to do a better job of keeping up with the news.......

Panasamsonic is what I heard

I did read Samsung is involved in powerpacks.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

Tesla likes to use demand levers. Despite my personal desire for it, I don't think Tesla is going to give us a completely redesigned Model S. Instead, they will announce new interior options when they need to pull a lever. They will ride on those sales for a while. Then they will pull another lever, trickling another major change into the platform, etc. Tesla will milk each change for as long as it can, spreading them out over time.

 

[Zaphod]

This isn't a Tesla improvement, it's a Samsung battery improvement. The Model 3 uses batteries manufactured by Samsung (albeit by Samsung employees that work inside the gigafactory and produce batteries solely for Tesla contracts) and those 21700 battery cells have a published capacity of 4200–4800 each, currently as opposed to the 1500–3600 capacity per cell in the older packs used by Model S and X. Capacities of publicly available cells have always been different than Tesla battery cells, which use the standard packaging but customized chemistry and I expect that will continue with the 21700 although nobody has disassembled one of them yet to verify. 21700 batteries available on any website store have already been verified to have substantially higher capacity per cell than Tesla ever shipped in a Model S or X. This commercial availability is why we know that the cells are both higher capacity and cheaper. Tesla doesn't sell them, but Samsung does, as does LG and I'm sure plenty of knockoffs by now as well.

The huge jumps in cell capacity that you read about from some distant 5 year future are not what we are talking about when we discuss the currently available 21700 lithium cell here. Speculation is not the same as publicly available commercial technology, and while Tesla sells speculation in the AP system, it sells physically real and verified batteries that are already in customer hands.

If you're interested in the underlying technology rather than hearing about it second hand and being confused with who makes what or what's real and what's imaginary when it comes to these commercial products, start here: List of battery sizes - Wikipedia

I think you're confusing things. The Samsung batteries are used for the powerpacks (maybe powerwalls too?) and are not actually manufactured at the Gigafactory. I believe they might still be 18650 as well.

Panasonic is the one making the 21700 cells at the Gigafactory.

 

[Naonak]

Tesla likes to use demand levers. Despite my personal desire for it, I don't think Tesla is going to give us a completely redesigned Model S. Instead, they will announce new interior options when they need to pull a lever. They will ride on those sales for a while. Then they will pull another lever, trickling another major change into the platform, etc. Tesla will milk each change for as long as it can, spreading them out over time.

This is my thought as well. They will offer a refresh interior. Then a bit down the road a new battery pack, and then another bit down the road, a new exterior... repeat. It's not a bad strategy from a business perspective, and it's probably what I would do in their position as well... especially if there wasn't the resources or technology to make major changes fairly often and regularly.

Keeps things fresh for the product line. But honestly, the body is getting a little long in the tooth as far as that goes and probably needs a major redesign sooner rather than later. Maybe the Model 3 will serve as a nice stand-in for a MS/X body refresh and buy them another year or two on the current body style, though.

 

[R.S]

This isn't a Tesla improvement, it's a Samsung battery improvement. The Model 3 uses batteries manufactured by Samsung (albeit by Samsung employees that work inside the gigafactory and produce batteries solely for Tesla contracts) and those 21700 battery cells have a published capacity of 4200–4800 each, currently as opposed to the 1500–3600 capacity per cell in the older packs used by Model S and X. Capacities of publicly available cells have always been different than Tesla battery cells, which use the standard packaging but customized chemistry and I expect that will continue with the 21700 although nobody has disassembled one of them yet to verify. 21700 batteries available on any website store have already been verified to have substantially higher capacity per cell than Tesla ever shipped in a Model S or X. This commercial availability is why we know that the cells are both higher capacity and cheaper. Tesla doesn't sell them, but Samsung does, as does LG and I'm sure plenty of knockoffs by now as well.

The huge jumps in cell capacity that you read about from some distant 5 year future are not what we are talking about when we discuss the currently available 21700 lithium cell here. Speculation is not the same as publicly available commercial technology, and while Tesla sells speculation in the AP system, it sells physically real and verified batteries that are already in customer hands.

If you're interested in the underlying technology rather than hearing about it second hand and being confused with who makes what or what's real and what's imaginary when it comes to these commercial products, start here: List of battery sizes - Wikipedia

They are Panasonic cells and no wonder they have a higher capacity if the cell is physically bigger. But if you want to keep weight, or volume of the pack the same having a larger cell doesn’t help at all.

And just making a larger cell isn’t new technology. It’s just a bigger package. So IMO the changes in energy density will be minimal. Real change will come due to a new chemistry. Everything else ist just back of the napkin math based on made up rumors, misinterpretation of the few facts we have and mostly wishful thinking.

 

[Chaserr]

if you want to keep weight, or volume of the pack the same having a larger cell doesn’t help at all.

This is precisely my point. There is no way for Tesla to continue to produce the same battery pack in the future; 18650 is old technology that has reached its peak any way; it was a good choice for the Roadster nearly a decade ago and still a good choice for the Model S and then X in the last half decade, but it is a poor choice moving forward.

Meanwhile, dimensions of battery packs have to be changed to fit the new battery, meaning there is a requirement to modify the skateboard of the Model S and X to fit that new battery any way, and therefore an interior and exterior update is imminent, simply because it's necessary to fit the extended range that we already know is coming.

I'd love to be wrong; I'd love to be able to retrofit a 400 mile battery into my car, but I have a feeling I'm going to need to upgrade to a new car entirely pretty soon. I just hope the new battery packs have beter cooling so they can run more than one hot lap on a track day; Tesla makes cars that love to run, but get heatsoaked too quickly to really learn how well they can do.

 

[hacer]

They are Panasonic cells and no wonder they have a higher capacity if the cell is physically bigger. But if you want to keep weight, or volume of the pack the same having a larger cell doesn’t help at all.

And just making a larger cell isn’t new technology. It’s just a bigger package. So IMO the changes in energy density will be minimal. Real change will come due to a new chemistry. Everything else ist just back of the napkin math based on made up rumors, misinterpretation of the few facts we have and mostly wishful thinking.

BEEP!

The volume ratio of the cells is: (70/65)(21/18)^2 = 1.4658
The mass ratio of the steel shells is: [21*70 + 0.5*21*21]/[18*65 + 0.5*18*18] = 1.2691

So you do in fact get 46% more energy storage with less than 46% more weight with the larger cells. Although the shell makes up a fraction of the volume, it is a significant part of the weight because it has much higher density than most of the other cell components. There isn't as much gained in terms of capacity to total volume as there is in terms of capacity to total weight, but there is still a gain there too.

 

[wdolson]

Tesla already ditched the aero wheels on the S and owners are pulling off the hubcaps on the Model 3. Range-killing huge staggered wheels are very popular on the Model S, that demand isn't going to disappear nor is demand for the top of the line model cars to have at least equal range to the Model 3... but buyers will start to vanish if the cheaper cars with better battery technology remain superior to the more expensive cars for long enough that buyers realize this. They can't rely on hubcaps to catch up with the new cell technology, and Tesla has never been able to keep redundant production lines going for long. Tesla *always* reduces costs and times for production, usually in a matter of months not years so I expect the new Model S and X second gen cars in that '3 months probably 6 months definitely' span we hear so often. I just don't see the old chassis remaining for an entire year, even in Tesla time estimates.

So, with the cheaper and larger capacity 21700 batteries being made in the gigafactory right now, there's no real future for 18650 in the next Model S, and no real reason to avoid a completely new car. The model S is 5 years old, right at the time the car industry expects a total refresh from any manufacturer. We've already seen a mild refresh so we know they're stretching the current design in keeping with standard industry practice and timelines, and now there's a reason to fit the new battery dimensions in a new chassis. They could re-engineer the current pack to fit fewer 21700 cells, and I hope they do because I'd love one of those packs myself, but they'll most likely just release a new car with a new pack; it's very unlikely the Model 3 uses the same modules as the Model S and X re-arranged for a less efficient composition of 21700 cells inside. The next Model S and X will definitely use the same modules as the Model 3 battery, again because Tesla has always gone with the cheapest production costs possible, so arranging those new modules full of new cells that are already in the Model 3 into a larger pack for the bigger cars is how the redesign will be based. If I'm wrong, great! But I just don't see a retrofittable pack for our current cars being a priority for such a short term and pricey effort. As soon as someone wrecks a Model 3 and that pack gets torn down, we'll know for sure, but my bet is squarely on a completely new module rather than the same dimensions as those used in the current S and X packs, and those modules are what determines whether we can retrofit into our cars.

I could be wrong, but I believe Tesla discontinued the aero wheels because the manufacturer couldn't supply them any longer. They aren't the greatest looking wheels either, but if I could get a set, I'd put them on.

 

[Shock-On-T]

BEEP!

The volume ratio of the cells is: (70/65)(21/18)^2 = 1.4658
The mass ratio of the steel shells is: [21*70 + 0.5*21*21]/[18*65 + 0.5*18*18] = 1.2691

So you do in fact get 46% more energy storage with less than 46% more weight with the larger cells. Although the shell makes up a fraction of the volume, it is a significant part of the weight because it has much higher density than most of the other cell components. There isn't as much gained in terms of capacity to total volume as there is in terms of capacity to total weight, but there is still a gain there too.

That’s only the density for a single cell. The packs are made of multiple cells and have gaps between each cell. The bigger cells have bigger gaps so the total density of the pack is not necessarily greater with the larger cells.

 

[Chaserr]

The packs need a substantial amount of cooling, they aren't simply leaving a lot of totally unused space between cells. If anything, Tesla needs a lot more cooling for the cells which will require even more space used between each of them - they definitely don't want less! This would negatively impact regular driving and charging; already we can't race a full lap on current cooling without the computer going into limp mode.

 

[328GTS]

Hooks for clothes? Well, case closed better car My 911R doesn't have hooks for clothes what a piece of crap.

Agree my Ferrari doesn't have coat hooks and the range is awful.

 

[alehbaba]

This is precisely my point. There is no way for Tesla to continue to produce the same battery pack in the future; 18650 is old technology that has reached its peak any way; it was a good choice for the Roadster nearly a decade ago and still a good choice for the Model S and then X in the last half decade, but it is a poor choice moving forward.

Meanwhile, dimensions of battery packs have to be changed to fit the new battery, meaning there is a requirement to modify the skateboard of the Model S and X to fit that new battery any way, and therefore an interior and exterior update is imminent, simply because it's necessary to fit the extended range that we already know is coming.

I'd love to be wrong; I'd love to be able to retrofit a 400 mile battery into my car, but I have a feeling I'm going to need to upgrade to a new car entirely pretty soon. I just hope the new battery packs have beter cooling so they can run more than one hot lap on a track day; Tesla makes cars that love to run, but get heatsoaked too quickly to really learn how well they can do.

agree.....ideally one would hole a "green" ev would consider just replacing a battery pack in the future to make the car very recyclable and uber "green"..i mean you can keep the same car yet upgrade the battery would be ingenious...but not sell enough future cars to support that mindset. I know tech is changing fast as well so it may be hard to do untill tesla gets a specific end all be all battery type and can build the car around that ultimate sized battery....instead of building the battery around the car.

Look at the 1st roadsters....i wouldnt touch those with a ten foot pole and the resale on them for me is poor.
Like so many companies they move on and leave past vehicles in the past. Tesla is still new so one may not see this now but if you get your s now in 2017 imagine in 10 years.??? When s models will surely be getting 500 mi on batteries maybe 600...and you 200 mi will be worth not much and likely no way to retrofit a 400 mi battery into it. Thats life.....in tech world.

In ice its no big deal. My 2004 mr2 spyder is the same now 13 yrs later with 80k on it as it was 13 yrs ago when new. In fact it gets better gass millage then new cars of the same type do. my 1986 gti mk2 got better gass miles then the new gti's do.

Anyhow my point is that one will likely have to buy a new tesla within 8 yrs to get a 400-600 mi battery: the retrofit is a very great idea and very forward thinking but not a money maker and with the tech changes being so fast kind of not possible.

 

[Chaserr]

Fellow (multiple generations of) Mr2 owner here, I suspect there's a lot of us. Technically, our Teslas are mid engined layout as well!

There may be hope for us in the future. The Roadster got a 3.0 battery update that increases range long after the platform itself was out of production. We have 300 mile batteries available now that can only fall in price as 18650 batteries are ubiquitous and old and hopefully Tesla treats us as they did Roadster owners, even though the odds of getting more than that are technologically improbable.

 

[wdolson]

The packs need a substantial amount of cooling, they aren't simply leaving a lot of totally unused space between cells. If anything, Tesla needs a lot more cooling for the cells which will require even more space used between each of them - they definitely don't want less! This would negatively impact regular driving and charging; already we can't race a full lap on current cooling without the computer going into limp mode.

The 2170 was chosen for the ideal form factor because it is the best trade off between energy density and cooling.

We probably won't see much improvement in the overheating any time soon. A bigger cooling system would add weight and take up space with only minimal benefit. What cars have today is good enough for 99+% of the uses.

 

[buttershrimp]

This is my thought as well. They will offer a refresh interior. Then a bit down the road a new battery pack, and then another bit down the road, a new exterior... repeat. It's not a bad strategy from a business perspective, and it's probably what I would do in their position as well... especially if there wasn't the resources or technology to make major changes fairly often and regularly.

Keeps things fresh for the product line. But honestly, the body is getting a little long in the tooth as far as that goes and probably needs a major redesign sooner rather than later. Maybe the Model 3 will serve as a nice stand-in for a MS/X body refresh and buy them another year or two on the current body style, though.

Does anybody think that the new dual charge port placement in the side of the car (in china) is a way to free up the redesign of rear lights?

 

[skitown]

Does anybody think that the new dual charge port placement in the side of the car (in china) is a way to free up the redesign of rear lights?

Could be, but I swear I heard Franz die a little death the moment I saw what they'd done with this for the Chinese market. Just seems out of character for him/them and a design shoehorn job. To me it also seems analogous to when I read Jony Ive basically sigh and say that the "camera bump" on the iPhone 6 was "a really very pragmatic optimization.”

 

[sakimano]

No, you are right, the Designo interior is better. But its also (here) a $20k option. The standard E class interior is inferior to the Model S.

And its also a 2018 car that is a whole new redesign.

Compare apples to apples and look at the previous generation Eseries that was launched when the model S was launched. The one that was a designed with a ruler and whose screens and gauges look prehistoric compared to a Tesla.

 

[diplomat33]

I would love a redesign of the Model S interior. Maybe switch to the new Model 3 ventless air system.But I don't think Tesla will do that anytime soon for 2 reasons:
1) A redesign would require changing the production line for the S which would take resources away from Model 3 "production hell".
2) Sales of the S are good enough right now that they don't need pull that demand lever yet.