Model S range and interior update imminent?

[ucmndd]

The reddit leaker bigteslaguy stated that the refresh would use 18650 cells.

It’s super foolish to think anything else at this point.

There’s zero chance the 4680s are ready, baseless forum speculation aside.

It would be a monumental wasted effort to do a temporary/transitional design with 2170s, particularly when Tesla still has crazy demand for every 2170 cell they can produce, and existing long-term contracts to buy 18650s from Panasonic.

I expect no major S/X pack changes beyond some iterative improvements to charging/cooling and chemistry updates similar to what we’re seeing in 2170 cells that will increase energy density 5-10%.

4680 transition is clearly tied to Plaid timeline at the absolute earliest and no major battery changes are happening before that.

As I said upthread, my hat is at the ready should I prove to be wrong. But I’m not wrong.

 

[Zorg]

I would be surprised if Tesla was able to ramp up 4680 battery production to build 80,000 S and X per year. I am guessing that 4680 will go to Plaid S only to start.

I also doubt that a full blown refresh is in the cards as we would have seen test mules driving around the bay area. An interior refresh seems more likely.

 

[henderrj]

It’s super foolish to think anything else at this point.

There’s zero chance the 4680s are ready, baseless forum speculation aside.

It would be a monumental wasted effort to do a temporary/transitional design with 2170s, particularly when Tesla still has crazy demand for every 2170 cell they can produce, and existing long-term contracts to buy 18650s from Panasonic.

I expect no major S/X pack changes beyond some iterative improvements to charging/cooling and chemistry updates similar to what we’re seeing in 2170 cells that will increase energy density 5-10%.

4680 transition is clearly tied to Plaid timeline at the absolute earliest and no major battery changes are happening before that.

As I said upthread, my hat is at the ready should I prove to be wrong. But I’m not wrong.

Absolutely agree. about the same time this thread started I started one that said "why you won't see 2170 sales in the model S anytime soon". mostly I was raked over the coals. interestingly the reasons are about the same now as they were then, mostly revolving around supply and demand. and, as we've discussed many times, the difference between 2170 and 18650 is pretty much nil as far as availability to deliver power or capacity. The chemistry is the same in both. only the new cell format is actually different. I guess I should go back and look up the link, but you'll get the idea anyway.

 

[Vic_F]

With the Panasonic ramp of 2170 cells and the relatively low number of S X cars IMO they could simplify to one battery type

 

[DanCar]

With the Panasonic ramp of 2170 cells and the relatively low number of S X cars IMO they could simplify to one battery type

I believe Tesla has stated long term they plan to converge on 4680 cells.

 

[Vic_F]

4680 cells might initially be targeted to Semi and Cybertruck. Will interesting to see

 

[DanCar]

BigTeslaGuy who has been accurate, leaked that the refresh will have 3 screens. If you are wondering what 3 screens will look like, here is 4 screens on the lucid air,

 

[henderrj]

4680 cells might initially be targeted to Semi and Cybertruck. Will interesting to see

If the cybertruck is a large user of the new cells the semi will be an absolute vacuum. it'll be years before they catch up, but once they do, I think you're correct. I don't think you'll see anything but 18650s in the s&x until they move all the way to the new format. Remember, all of that equipment to make the older size cells is bought and paid for by now. It would be multiplied millions to put 2170s in them for a middle step. And no advantage really at all.

 

[Cheburashka]

I wonder if this means MCU3 is also incoming.

Maybe the refresh will finally have a usable web browser!

 

[ICUDoc]

There’s zero chance the 4680s are ready

Zero chance?
Bugger.
I was so excited....

 

[ICUDoc]

Many people seemed to be underwhelmed at Battery Day 2020.
But some commentators, who seemed pretty excited, and perhaps more steeped in Tesla culture than others, said that Battery Day was SO exciting because its biggest surprise was how it showed how quick and easy 4680 tabless cells are to produce compared to 18650s / 21700's.
So:
Maybe:
Tesla can build 4680 factories more quickly (speculation) and in a smaller space (true, as per Elon) so then 4680's can be churned out at a stunning rate.
Hence: 4680's in the trucks, and in Plaid, in 2021. Seems possible to me.
.
OTOH, what I think is odd is that if there IS a significant Model S refresh in early 2021, then that would seem to be a big change very close to ANOTHER big change in late 2021, when Plaid is due.
Hmmm.
Any Texans seen any 4680-factories-disguised-as-pizza-joints lately?

 

[WarpedOne]

Tesla can build 4680 factories more quickly (speculation) and in a smaller space (true, as per Elon) so then 4680's can be churned out at a stunning rate.

It is all public knowledge already ... Tesla's pilot plant (roadrunner) has equipment for some 10GWh annual production, that is 1/3 of current Nevada output.
All there is left is speeding up those machines to reach design target and quality.

No secret locations needed.

 

[Krash]

I wonder if this means MCU3 is also incoming.

Maybe the refresh will finally have a usable web browser!

Has anyone complained that the web browser isn't fast enough in MCU2.0? I think the next additions in the MCU are 5G and the GPU. I've not seen any CPU upgrade rumors.

 

[ICUDoc]

It is all public knowledge already ... Tesla's pilot plant (roadrunner) has equipment for some 10GWh annual production, that is 1/3 of current Nevada output.

I see. Thanks.
When is the next Roadrunner plant due to come online? 10GWh sounds like VERY limited production.
What's the point in celebrating a small-footprint factory if the output is small? I thought the plan would be to make LOTS of small-footprint factories?

 

[wdolson]

The reddit leaker bigteslaguy stated that the refresh would use 18650 cells. He was spot on about the Model 3 refresh that came out recently. So I think his info was at least correct / current at the time he shared. That said, I'm sure the battery will be a major step up in cooling and supercharging capabilities.

For what it's worth another reddit user TheMightyFuji has made some interesting comments replying to a posts speculating the S refresh would include 4680s. He claims to work for Tesla in battery manufacturing. He gently implies the cell form factor is not changing and also that the refresh Model S will beat Lucid's EPA range.

"I have a friend at Lucid and I told him that the Air is a fantastic car and they should be proud of it. Its just bad luck for them that it will be obsolete before it ever rolls out of the factory."

See this thread on reddit while you can:
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotor...j?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Retooling and ramping up production of 4680s is going to take time. On Battery Day they said 4680s will be faster to produce, but they didn't talk about the time it would take to switch production over to the new cells. Tesla also has contracts with Panasonic Japan for 18650s that need to be converted to a new cell form factor, or something done with them.

I would be surprised if Tesla was able to ramp up 4680 battery production to build 80,000 S and X per year. I am guessing that 4680 will go to Plaid S only to start.

I also doubt that a full blown refresh is in the cards as we would have seen test mules driving around the bay area. An interior refresh seems more likely.

If the new packs are 120 KWH, 80K cars a year is 10 GWH. It's quite doable, but as others have said, they can better apply the first 4680s to the Semi, which will need lots of cells.

Many people seemed to be underwhelmed at Battery Day 2020.
But some commentators, who seemed pretty excited, and perhaps more steeped in Tesla culture than others, said that Battery Day was SO exciting because its biggest surprise was how it showed how quick and easy 4680 tabless cells are to produce compared to 18650s / 21700's.
So:
Maybe:
Tesla can build 4680 factories more quickly (speculation) and in a smaller space (true, as per Elon) so then 4680's can be churned out at a stunning rate.
Hence: 4680's in the trucks, and in Plaid, in 2021. Seems possible to me.
.
OTOH, what I think is odd is that if there IS a significant Model S refresh in early 2021, then that would seem to be a big change very close to ANOTHER big change in late 2021, when Plaid is due.
Hmmm.
Any Texans seen any 4680-factories-disguised-as-pizza-joints lately?

I suspect the Plaid S will be introduced with 4680s, but the rest of the Model S/X will continue to use 18650s until there are enough 4680s to build enough cars and that may be a while with other vehicles sucking up 4680s. Before the Model 3 came out whenever there was a change in battery chemistry or pack capacity the Performance cars got the new battery for a while until production caught up.

 

[BigNick]

BigTeslaGuy who has been accurate, leaked that the refresh will have 3 screens. If you are wondering what 3 screens will look like, here is 4 screens on the lucid air,

View attachment 617505

Just opinions here.

I'd still consider that Lucid as having two screens. The console and the instrument panel wraparound cluster, even if that cluster is three individual smaller screens, it flows as one big one.

Also, if there is an MCU3 on the horizon, it should be ARM-based. Better performance per watt than the relatively power-hungry Intel chips. Tesla wouldn't be using actual Apple Silicon but "standard" ARM chips.

 

[thebishop]

Three screens:

1. Center console, like in m3 but slightly larger possibly.
2. Left rear mirror
3. Right rear mirror

possible hud

Rip old style instrument cluster.

My 0.02c

 

[BigNick]

Three screens:

1. Center console, like in m3 but slightly larger possibly.
2. Left rear mirror
3. Right rear mirror

possible hud

Rip old style instrument cluster.

My 0.02c

HUD would be cool. I don't think I could get used to the Model 3-like center screen for speedometer, etc without a major pain in the neck on long drives.

Or, still an IC and large center screen, plus a camera/OLED driven rear view mirror in its "normal" location? (After all, the Chevy Bolt has a rear-view-mirror screen that can be turned on/off.) Not sure the US DOT will give approval for full-time camera-based side views without mirrors yet?

 

[MP3Mike]

Three screens:

1. Center console, like in m3 but slightly larger possibly.
2. Left rear mirror
3. Right rear mirror

Screens in place of side view mirrors still aren't legal in the US.

 

[thebishop]

Sure, but for the rest of us... one would expect them to follow eventually, it seems inevitable.