Model X Production ramp up discussion

[AnxietyRanger]

I think it's funny this thread was created to "bury" the Model X delay thread (indeed folks were asking for it be closed since it was "clearly" BS), and now it's basically validating it.

While it still seems possible Tesla can deliver more than 100 Model X in 2015, I think an objective observer admits Delay in Model X launch? thread gave us unique insight into Tesla's supplier relationship and parts design issues already before Elon Musk and subsequent events confirmed as much. It seems to have been very accurate.

What is not unique is accuracy of leaks, though. I would go as far as to say most Model X leaks posted on TMC turned out to be more true than false over the past year, from car looks to production ramp-up. Hopefully this is reflected in how such leaks are received in the future. A lesson learned for Model 3 watch.

 

[FlasherZ]

What is not unique is accuracy of leaks, though. I would go as far as to say most Model X leaks posted on TMC turned out to be more true than false over the past year, from car looks to production ramp-up. Hopefully this is reflected in how such leaks are received in the future. A lesson learned for Model 3 watch.

You can't treat all disclosures in the same way, though. There are true leaks (both parties *know* that it's embargoed information), there are inadvertent disclosures (someone was talking and said something they shouldn't have), there are the intended public disclosures, and there are the announcements.

In the case of the new 48A charger news, I specifically asked "is this information for public consumption?" and was told indeed it was, and that the updated material was going out to the sales & delivery teams earlier that day. Learning more about the sources certainly helps determine the likelihood of truth.

Then you have to consider the material presented - is it a technical detail, or is it something that's a 50-50 flip anyway? Anyone can say "there will be a delay with Model 3" - if I were in Vegas I'd be offering 3:1 odds to anyone wanting to wager on them getting a delivery out the door by end of 2017. It's probably 50-50 for 2018!

 

[jstoneman]

I am just in shock that this car is not ready to go. They held an event to give 6 cars to insiders. Slap in the face. They spent probably more on the event than most make in a year, just to deliver 6 cars. 2 to the CEO. I'm sitting here with my head in my hands every day, just waiting for news that ANYBODY has a delivery date. I am the biggest fattest Tesla Cheerleader on the whole planet, and I feel sicker every day. Bob Lutz piling on last week with his 1990's logic of going to an ICE/hybrid engine didn't help the discussion at all. Are these engineering challenges just so hard that not even a genius level CEO can solve them? Is sustainable transport hanging in the balance right now?
So many questions!
-Why are we not hearing about 1000's of bodies just being built and shelved until the last parts arrive?
-Why haven't we heard about base pricing yet?
-Why has a seal problem known about for years, not been solved?
-How long does it take to bring seat production in house and get a line running with significant numbers?
-What is the company spending so many millions of dollars on (eye watering really) if not for solving these problems on time?
-Why hasn't powerwall just been thrown into high gear just to get some cash flow going? Talk about an easy engineering problem compared to a vehicle.
(STATIONARY STORAGE? Yeah, we'll knock that out in a week!)
-What does this delay mean for the Model 3 in March?
-Has this company got enough money to survive until then (2016-2017)?
-What if the stock tanks in a couple of months once the market decides that no significant growth is happening? How will they finance debt then?
-Why aren't we in crisis mode on communication with X reservation holders?
-Why can't we start advertising in a conventional way to boost S demand like crazy until X is ready?
Anyone? Any hope? Elon? JB?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I am just in shock that this car is not ready to go. They held an event to give 6 cars to insiders. Slap in the face. They spent probably more on the event than most make in a year, just to deliver 6 cars. 2 to the CEO. I'm sitting here with my head in my hands every day, just waiting for news that ANYBODY has a delivery date. I am the biggest fattest Tesla Cheerleader on the whole planet, and I feel sicker every day. Bob Lutz piling on last week with his 1990's logic of going to an ICE/hybrid engine didn't help the discussion at all. Are these engineering challenges just so hard that not even a genius level CEO can solve them? Is sustainable transport hanging in the balance right now?
So many questions!

I believe the reason for the silence is the one that was controversally made by a leakster here during the summer: Tesla is tight lipped about the process to protect the stock price. Are they annoying many loyal fans in the process? For sure. But being vague for that reason makes sense. Secondarily, I expect Tesla is downplaying Model X as much as possible to avoid Osbourning Model S sales until such a time as when Model X is ramped up and no longer as much of a delay threat to car purchase decisions. Being vague for this reason also makes sense.

Speculatively Tesla needs to look like delivering the Model X for the first reason but also, at the same time, not look too much like Model X is an alternative to Model S yet for the second reason. Given the difficulties in finishing and ramping up Model X, it doesn't look too pretty, the way they are trying to balance these speculated concerns.

Tesla will get there eventually, but Model X clearly has been delayed many times over and it seems likely the initial car will not be quite as versatile as it will be 6-12 months later, as a result of having to compromise to minimize further delays.

I certainly wish Tesla would have been more open about things.

 

[ecarfan]

Wow. The sky is falling. Tesla is doomed. Life as we know it is is over.
In a few months when the X is being produced in quantity the anxiety will pass. Patience, my friend.

 

[AnOutsider]

Wow. The sky is falling. Tesla is doomed. Life as we know it is is over.
In a few months when the X is being produced in quantity the anxiety will pass. Patience, my friend.

Over dramatic, but I think we can agree the X isn't ready. A leakster knew it months ago, so we can only assume Tesla did as well. The poor communication and management of expectations are of bigger concern IMO. If you needed 6 more months to get it right, take them. Don't force sigs to config with barely any info (which changed quite a few times), hold a farce of a "launch" event, and then string folks along.

 

[dirkhh]

Over dramatic, but I think we can agree the X isn't ready. A leakster knew it months ago, so we can only assume Tesla did as well. The poor communication and management of expectations are of bigger concern IMO. If you needed 6 more months to get it right, take them. Don't force sigs to config with barely any info (which changed quite a few times), hold a farce of a "launch" event, and then string folks along.

This all comes down to "what were they thinking?". Tesla needs to get to Model 3. They didn't need falcon wing doors. They didn't need mono-post second row seats. They didn't need the things that are causing them all this pain now. It's over-ambition and arrogance. Not something I like to think about in a company that I really want to succeed.
And to answer the question a few posts up

"How long does it take to bring seat production in house and get a line running with significant numbers?"

A very long time. Easily 9-12 months. Building a seat is complicated, needs purpose built tools, quite a bit of testing and training. This is not something you can solve in 6 weeks. Now there is the valid question of "when did they know and could they have dealt with this more quickly?". Which brings us back to over-ambition and arrogance, I guess. The genius CEO assumes that he can get done whatever he wants done because he wants it. That works out well most of the time. Until it doesn't.
I don't think this will doom Tesla. I think in a few months when production starts for good this will be all but forgotten. But it's indicative of a larger problem, IMHO.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Over dramatic, but I think we can agree the X isn't ready. A leakster knew it months ago, so we can only assume Tesla did as well. The poor communication and management of expectations are of bigger concern IMO. If you needed 6 more months to get it right, take them. Don't force sigs to config with barely any info (which changed quite a few times), hold a farce of a "launch" event, and then string folks along.

...and that brings us to the third reason for Tesla: Because they decided - arguably to protect stock price - to launch Model X sooner than it was ready, they must now protect its sales from Osborning by not disclosing near-future features even in blatant cases like 48A chargers being included as a sudden compromise. No, it doesn't look exactly pretty and Signatures will most certainly be "A pack" all over again.

As for Tesla knowing the belated schedule, the biggest proof is the referral program that allowed Founders victories and orders and ends only in late October. As I'd expect Founders to be built before or at the very latest alongside Signatures, they must have known Signature manufacturing won't start before November at the earliest...

 

[ohmman]

A very long time. Easily 9-12 months. Building a seat is complicated, needs purpose built tools, quite a bit of testing and training.

Also, being that it's a regulated industry, things move a lot more slowly because you have to wait on other (slow) entities for approvals.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I am just in shock that this car is not ready to go.
-Why can't we start advertising in a conventional way to boost S demand like crazy until X is ready?
Anyone? Any hope? Elon? JB?

From the Q3 2015 shareholder letter, and comments during the last conference call, Tesla expects to be producing Model X in the hundreds of units/week by the end of the year. This is consistent with what the company reported in the Q2 shareholder letter. It's also somewhat consistent with the leaked info from the late forum member "Eds", who was essentially knocked off this site by Tesla's lawyers. However, many of us here who read the forums every day remember the general message from Eds: getting final components in quantity from suppliers was proving difficult.

I am not concerned about Model S demand. Elon stated that Model S demand actually went up after the Model X reveal. Presumably, the event drew attention to Tesla via lots of media reporting, and new customers opted to buy a Tesla they could get within a month or two, rather than wait a year for a Model X. Also, the release of the Autopilot software upgrade resulted in additional positive press for Tesla. Finally, fence-sitters who were deciding on Model S vs. Model X were at last able to make a decision on which car to buy.

Secondarily, I expect Tesla is downplaying Model X as much as possible to avoid Osbourning Model S sales until such a time as when Model X is ramped up and no longer as much of a delay threat to car purchase decisions. Being vague for this reason also makes sense.

I don't believe that Model S was ever in any realistic danger of suffering the Osbourne effect, because Model S and Model X serve different customer needs.

Model S still has superior range, superior top performance, and sportier looks versus the Model X. Model S can also accommodate longer cargo because its 2nd row folds down. Model X offers more adult seating, more headroom for rear passengers, easier rear bench access via Falcon Wing doors, tow capability, and a medical grade air filtration system. Neither car is clearly superior to each other. This isn't iPhone 5 vs. iPhone 6, where the later model is superior in most ways. This is more akin to iPhone 6 vs. iPhone 6 Plus: same generation hardware with differences mostly related to specific usage needs.

As far as the ramp up, we just won't know for sure what will happen. My advice is for everyone to wait 6 weeks and observe how deliveries progress (or don't progress).

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm perfectly fine with Tesla being closed-mouth and secretive, makes the surprises all the more surprising, and I like to be surprised. I'm also okay with Tesla and Elon shooting for the moon/Mars/pick a place in outer space. While they may not hit the mark, having such ambitions and intent means they'll accomplish far more than someone aiming for the wastebasket. Not worried or concerned, they'll figure it out. I have faith, which is entirely unusual given my general lack of faith in mankind. Just sayin'.

 

[AlMc]

I'm perfectly fine with Tesla being closed-mouth and secretive, makes the surprises all the more surprising, and I like to be surprised. I'm also okay with Tesla and Elon shooting for the moon/Mars/pick a place in outer space. While they may not hit the mark, having such ambitions and intent means they'll accomplish far more than someone aiming for the wastebasket. Not worried or concerned, they'll figure it out. I have faith, which is entirely unusual given my general lack of faith in mankind. Just sayin'.

I would be quite happy with something in between the 'wastebasket' and 'the moon'.

An SUV without the Falcon Wing doors, a panoramic glass windshield/roof and pedestal second row seats would, IMO, already be out now and selling as fast as TM could make them with good margins. The goal is model3/mass production/moving us to renewable energy sources for transportation. The X is unique among the SUV offerings because it is a BEV that has high performance. It would have competed very nicely with the Audi/BMW and Porsche SUVs of the world without the FWD, panoramic glass windshield/roof and sculptured second row seats.

These other features have caused much of the delay and added significant expense.

 

[Duckjybe]

This all comes down to "what were they thinking?". Tesla needs to get to Model 3. They didn't need falcon wing doors. They didn't need mono-post second row seats. They didn't need the things that are causing them all this pain now. It's over-ambition and arrogance. Not something I like to think about in a company that I really want to succeed.

I would argue that Tesla does need falcon wing doors and mono-post second row seats. Their brand expects these things now. I love the extending door handles on the Model S. It is a distinguishing feature. These innovative features are Tesla's "Moat". It will be much more difficult for competitors to copy Tesla when they have falcon wing doors. These hard to engineer features will be costly and will slow competitors down immensely so they likely won't get copied. This will ensure Tesla will not get eaten by competitors.

I'd rather wait a bit for a unique and innovative Model X than have a plain Model X sooner.

 

[Merrill]

If you just want another plain vanilla suv, do not buy the Model X. I will wait for whatever time it takes to have something that is futuristic and electric.

 

[ohmman]

I'm perfectly fine with Tesla being closed-mouth and secretive, makes the surprises all the more surprising, and I like to be surprised. .

If you were a consumer of the vehicles instead of an observer, you may feel differently. There's a different commitment, and therefore a different mindset.

 

[Aljohn]

I also understand the frustration for some. I angst over the Model X last year, but came to the personal conclusion that I am not walking. Do I want my new toy -- YES. Would I like more info -- YES. Do I realize my Production X will be Feb/March of next year -- YES. Did we finally get to see and ride in the Model X -- Yes.

Tesla can't deal with 20 questions..... If they answer ONE, there is another..... and someone else will think of another related or unrelated. So what will they tell us? The specifics of the seat issue... they are working on it. The issue with the seals... they are working on it. The five other low volume parts....they are working on it.

They have answered all the question at a high level. Some parts aren't ready for volume production. They are tracking with Elon being updated every day. They estimate manufacturing several hundred (you pick the definition of several), in December. They stated the total number built by year end is a moving estimate based on when all things come together.

I understand the angst .... But 24,000 reservation holders, or 1200 Signature holders can't Micro-Manage what Tesla is doing. Twenty questions leads to 40 questions, leads to what does that mean? 20 more Questions. It's not disrespect of the reservation holders, it is the realization 20 questions is a no-win game.

Tesla: Keep the focus on the Job needed to be done! Thanks.

 

[AlMc]

If you just want another plain vanilla suv, do not buy the Model X. I will wait for whatever time it takes to have something that is futuristic and electric.

That is great and your choice. The reason for me to switch/sell my current SUV and replace it with an X: (in order of important)

1. A BEV SUV
2. Safer than current SUVs.
3. Range of 200+ miles
4. Performance similar or better than ICE SUV

The Falcon Wings are 'cool' but I don't need them. The panoramic glass is 'cool' but I don't need it. The pedestal seats that can't fold are actually a large negative.

As for the S: Similar criteria: BEV, safe, good range, great performance. The door handles and 17" screen are 'cool' but I would have bought the car without them.

I admit, that is my criteria and probably not yours.

My concern is that the X is delayed for 'cool' features (IMO) not features that will cause the X to see demand constraint. I thought the whole idea was to complete the mission statement. I think we could complete it with less R&D costs, delays and potential service issues (complexity of the doors/crack windshield needed total panoramic replacement) by going with an X that was not, as EM stated, 'a vehicle that probably should not have been made'.

We will never know or be able to prove *IF* I am right or wrong about the demand for the X being great because of people with similar criteria as mine versus people who would not have bought the X without some of the features that *appear* to be causing the delay.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I understand the angst .... But 24,000 reservation holders, or 1200 Signature holders can't Micro-Manage what Tesla is doing. Twenty questions leads to 40 questions, leads to what does that mean? 20 more Questions. It's not disrespect of the reservation holders, it is the realization 20 questions is a no-win game.

Respectfully - and fully - disagree.

It is the realization that answering the 20 questions would lead to uncomfortable answers that might Osborne Model X sales (wait for future product changes, delayed beyond initial launch due to changes and supplier issues), Model S sales (wait for future Model X) and hurt stock price (delays).

Hey, my guess is as good as yours.

 

[ohmman]

I thought the whole idea was to complete the mission statement.

That's certainly what one expects - and is precisely why mission statements exist. They are there to remind us what our end goal is and make sure decisions are aiding in the achievement of that goal.

I suppose an argument could be made that all of these cool things, despite their delays, will increase the adoption of EVs, and eventually the uptake will be higher because of the attention they get. I don't buy it personally, as I think the MX would have gotten plenty of attention if it were just a puffed up MS without anything unique. But that argument could certainly be made.

 

[MitchJi]

From the call:

we feel very confident of getting to several 100 vehicles per week by the end of the year.

When he said that he was talking about the fact that they are continuing to discover and deal with problems.

I believe that this means that he is "very confident", but not absolutely positive, that they won't discover a problem that will make that goal impossible to achieve.