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Model X Production ramp up discussion

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ugh...I am soooooo sorry for releasing the info that I had with my DS. Apparently it caused a huge influx of calls and concerns to DS across the country and my DS to get into hot water from Tesla.

I was hoping to just update the forum and give good news that production looked like it was ramping up, not to spur crazy calls to Tesla.

Formal apologies to my DS.
No more updates from me until I get delivery.

sorry man. Too bad for your DS. I can't imagine why telling you your car was in production would be bad. He was just telling you the status of your car.

This is leads me to believe other owners cars are in production but DS's are apparently restricted from telling onwers. Weird.
 
Model S ramp-up curve

Several threads here suggested that the curve of X is predicted to be similar to that of the S. Does anybody have hard numbers of how the S' launch went? Something like what modelxtracker.com does? Or maybe a spreadsheet with number of cars produced/delivered each month?
 
So it's been a full month since the "launch".

And except for one DS claiming that a customer's car was "in production" (and getting in trouble for it... did they get in trouble because they told the truth and weren't supposed to, or because they passed on information that's actually incorrect (for whatever reason)) we have no indication that a single non-insider car has gone in production. I could be wrong, but somehow I think that if bonnie's car were in production (not the weird Tesla state that means that you are in the waiting line to eventually go in production, but the actual "the metal is being shaped into a car") she would know about that. And most likely share that knowledge with us.

My personal thought is that no, no Sig is actually in production and 7racer's DS for some reason told 7racer something that is not backed up by reality.

And, sadly, that the plan of "all US Sigs delivered in 2015" is off the table and been replaced with "the first handful of Sigs delivered in 2015". We do appear to have data from several reservation holders that appears to back up this interpretation (with them being told that they won't get their car until January). But of course those DSs might be the ones being wrong and 7racer's might be the one who's correct. It's all speculation :)
 
So it's been a full month since the "launch".

And except for one DS claiming that a customer's car was "in production" (and getting in trouble for it... did they get in trouble because they told the truth and weren't supposed to, or because they passed on information that's actually incorrect (for whatever reason)) we have no indication that a single non-insider car has gone in production. I could be wrong, but somehow I think that if bonnie's car were in production (not the weird Tesla state that means that you are in the waiting line to eventually go in production, but the actual "the metal is being shaped into a car") she would know about that. And most likely share that knowledge with us.

My personal thought is that no, no Sig is actually in production and 7racer's DS for some reason told 7racer something that is not backed up by reality.

And, sadly, that the plan of "all US Sigs delivered in 2015" is off the table and been replaced with "the first handful of Sigs delivered in 2015". We do appear to have data from several reservation holders that appears to back up this interpretation (with them being told that they won't get their car until January). But of course those DSs might be the ones being wrong and 7racer's might be the one who's correct. It's all speculation :)

If things are on plan, the misinformation should have been cleared by Tesla as it impacts customers. There is no benefit in spreading misinformation. The conclusion I am making based on Tesla's action so far after the MX release is that they are well behind and rushed to meet self imposed q3 deadline.
 
If things are on plan, the misinformation should have been cleared by Tesla as it impacts customers. There is no benefit in spreading misinformation. The conclusion I am making based on Tesla's action so far after the MX release is that they are well behind and rushed to meet self imposed q3 deadline.

Tesla's in a rather interesting position. For any other large automaker, the dates for a new vehicle model to initial customers would be largely inconsequential among everything going on within that company. For Tesla, the Model X launch represents a very significant impact on their market valuation. Even shipping dates to initial Signature customers (as a class, not an individual basis) could be considered material information that must be released to the public officially. Perhaps after Tuesday we'll see the communications channels open slightly - I doubt it, but we can hope.
 
Several threads here suggested that the curve of X is predicted to be similar to that of the S. Does anybody have hard numbers of how the S' launch went? Something like what modelxtracker.com does? Or maybe a spreadsheet with number of cars produced/delivered each month?


Model S Order Delivery Tracker - Q1 2014

We all went thru this back in 2014. Keep your chin up. Its worth the wait. I ordered the Model X in 2013. My res was 1260'S. Paid lot of $ down. 2 weeks later they moved the date back to 2015. I called the and told them, I'm 81 rears old and I don't buy green bananas. Send me a Model S. I waited 3 month not 3 years. Happy, Happy , Happy.

IMG_2052.JPG
 
I think the market is more concerned with how many vehicles deliver Q4 rather than which models. Tesla delivering a lot of MX in 2016 doesn't seem to be at risk.

Presumably the strategic choices Tesla will make over the next six months are designed to minimize the cost of acquiring additional capital.
 
Especially if they convert to a MS.

I wish the Tesla Tracker site updated their charts. The last post for reservations was 9/30. I would like to see what the reservation tally has been since the reveal. What is the current rate of reservations?
There is no new data for the Tally as the launch as Tesla stopped giving out any sequence numbers. :(

There were 18 new reservation records recorded in the tracker for the Month of October. Not enough data to even do a wild guess of the estimated monthly reservations or current rate. So looks like the Tally days are over.

The Tracker will now get more focused on orders, assembly/production, and delivery analysis. But since the Model X launch the only thing seen is some VIN assignments with little rhyme or reason.

I'm just waiting for one official "in production" or delivery date to release a new dashboard and work on some reports once we get enough to validate the dates and data flow to use in said reports.
 
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...E16-DE1FAC0BABDF/Q3_15_Shareholder_Letter.pdf

Outlook

In Q4, we plan to build 15,000 to 17,000 vehicles, and deliver 17,000 to 19,000 vehicles, which will result in 50,000 to 52,000 total deliveries for the year.

Model S production and deliveries are on track to achieve our initial Q4 plan. The primary limiting factor to higher Q4 deliveries is the near term ramp of Model X production, with the biggest constraint being the supply of components related to the second row monopost seats. To eliminate these supply constraints and achieve a better overall outcome, we have brought manufacturing of these seats in-house. In addition we, and some of our other Model X suppliers, are still ramping up and fine-tuning production. These factors add uncertainty to our build plans during Q4, but we feel emphasizing quality is the right decision for our customers.

We expect that Model X will achieve steady state production capacity during Q1 as we do not foresee any significant production, design or supply chain constraints that will impact this plan. Looking ahead, we still remain highly confident of average production and deliveries of 1,600 to 1,800 vehicles per week for Model S and Model X combined during 2016.
 
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http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...E16-DE1FAC0BABDF/Q3_15_Shareholder_Letter.pdf
Looking ahead, we still remain highly confident of average production and deliveries of 1,600 to 1,800 vehicles per week for Model S and Model X combined during 2016.
Outlook
1600 to 1800 vehicles per week - that would be 20800 to 23400 vehicles per quarter, or 7000 to 7800 per month. Per this site here (Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard), an average of 1890 Model S have been sold per month in the US (I don't know how accurate that is). I'm not sure how to extrapolate international Model S sales from that, but it would still leave a good amount of room for Model X productions.
 
From the call:

<Q>: Hi, everybody. Had a couple questions, first on Model X I just wanted to confirm, did you say you thought you could get a few hundred produced and delivered by year end? And just so that we understand what's been happening here, is it just the seat at this point or are there other unique challenges that you think prospectively affect the ramp of the vehicle?


<A>: No, to be precise I said several hundred per week that we expect to reach the production rate of several hundred per week next month.


<Q>: OK.


<A>: And we'll -- that no way we can predict the exact number we'll develop. Because we're on an exponential ramp. So exactly one week this way or that can actually make a significant number, an impact in the absolute but number of vehicles delivered, we do feel [indiscernible] reaching the several hundred per week production rate next month. And the issues are a bunch of little things. Door seals right now is a challenge, for example. The monopost seat in the second row is still a challenge but less of a challenge it's not a [indiscernible] factor. Basically going through a series of constraints. Most constraints can change from one day to the next. But the important point is that we don't see any fundamental obstacle to achieving a production rate of several hundred per week sometime next month.


<Q>: OK. And it sounds like the target that you late out the 1600 to 1800 a week, it sounds like you might think that that's achievable in early '16 and wanted to confirm that, you didn't provide CapEx for next year but also just confirm is that what you sort of thinking you'll need to achieve that full cash flow breakeven?


<A>: Yeah, I think it's likely that, you know, that we could be in that 1600 to 1800 range, per week range in Q1. I mean, I'm guessing we're probably towards the lower end of that range but then again maybe exceed that, the high end of that range towards the end of next year if things go well. I mean, there are some caveats there, depends on what metric and economic conditions are like around the world next year. But right now we do see that 16 to 1800 per week on average as occurring in Q1.
 
<A>: Yeah, I think it's likely that, you know, that we could be in that 1600 to 1800 range, per week range in Q1. I mean, I'm guessing we're probably towards the lower end of that range but then again maybe exceed that, the high end of that range towards the end of next year if things go well. I mean, there are some caveats there, depends on what metric and economic conditions are like around the world next year. But right now we do see that 16 to 1800 per week on average as occurring in Q1.

How is it possible that their ramp in Q1 depends on 'economic conditions'? They have 20k people waiting for an X and god knows how many for an S. Even if orders came to a full stop right now, they are booked solid for well into the second quarter.
 
How is it possible that their ramp in Q1 depends on 'economic conditions'? They have 20k people waiting for an X and god knows how many for an S. Even if orders came to a full stop right now, they are booked solid for well into the second quarter.

Yeah, that comment only makes sense if it is about all of 2016, unless he's thinking massive cancellations due to world war 3 or something...

Actually, if you believe Elon's biography, they did have a lot of deferrals for Model S in their first full quarter of production, so maybe he was thinking along those lines, but there are a lot more Model X reservations now than there were Model S orders then.
 
How is it possible that their ramp in Q1 depends on 'economic conditions'? They have 20k people waiting for an X and god knows how many for an S. Even if orders came to a full stop right now, they are booked solid for well into the second quarter.
"depends on what macro economic conditions are like around the world next year."
He was talking about full year. Tesla expects to produce 1600-1800 total cars (Model S plus Model X) per week average in 2016 if demand for S and X are as expected and that demand is sustained through 2016. And this definitely could vary depending on global economic conditions, exchange rates, EV incentive policies, etc.

"But right now we do see that 16 to 1800 per week on average as occurring in Q1." Q1 is fairly safe as there are so many orders for the X that it's likely they will be at max production capacity for the full quarter even with some deferrals and cancellations. A major financial crisis in Q1 could technically impact Q1 deliveries, but it would have to be pretty huge to cause enough cancellations or deferrals to impact Q1 deliverables. Keep in mind that each deposit is refundable and non-binding. It shows intent but is not a promise. They can't count on those as money in the bank (even though they do have some of our money in the bank). :smile: