Model X sales versus other large luxury SUV's

[larmor]

Pulling sentiment from several posts above: Low gas prices have emboldened the large SUV segment once again, which includes large high end suv's. If gas prices were to rise, one would see a shift towards the MX- why? A large expensive ICE SUV chews gas at 12 to 14 mpg (really 12) this is my experience for a gl550. So fill ups were on the order of $100, times four per month, it adds up. If you want your wife to drive the MX or large SUV, then they do the math, since they are much more practical, and right now the math says large canyonero GL.

IMHO i wouldnt trade the FWDS for anything. View out of the MX is fantastic. The MX is a perfectly suited car for FSD. When FSD becomes available, the MX will be the people mover of choice.

 

[bonaire]

Pulling sentiment from several posts above: Low gas prices have emboldened the large SUV segment once again, which includes large high end suv's. If gas prices were to rise, one would see a shift towards the MX- why? A large expensive ICE SUV chews gas at 12 to 14 mpg (really 12) this is my experience for a gl550. So fill ups were on the order of $100, times four per month, it adds up. If you want your wife to drive the MX or large SUV, then they do the math, since they are much more practical, and right now the math says large canyonero GL.

IMHO i wouldnt trade the FWDS for anything. View out of the MX is fantastic. The MX is a perfectly suited car for FSD. When FSD becomes available, the MX will be the people mover of choice.

Argument holds up if you drive LOTS of miles. If you drive 5000-8000 a year, buyers who lease SUVs couldn't care less. They'll still go and have $150 meals at Cheesecake Factory with family. Buyers of new vehicles such as SUVs don't always consider gas prices over actual utility. Heck, I know a family with 10 kids. They care little about gas prices. I can't see families eyeing $5/gas and running off to buy a $100k Model X 6-7 seater. It's dumb to buy a "new" car to fix a specific short term financial problem. Buy a used SUV instead of new and save $20K. The consumer mindset is out about 1-2 years max. And if you're wealthy enough to buy a Tesla, you are also wealthy enough to buy gas at almost any price.

You pointed out actual reasons to buy MX. Window View, FWD, novelty, green-feelings, etc. Those are the objectives of the buyer. By the way, a car does not have to be electric to have FSD. FSD could become "de-norm" in the industry across all automakers. They're vying for the money of large firms who want to eventually automate labor costs of driver-jobs. Imagine Uber without having to pay drivers. Taxi companies. Delivery services. And more. Every automaker, truck maker, semi-maker and their customers want FSD. Autonomous is not necessarily a people mover. It can also be looked at as a people replacer.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Argument holds up if you drive LOTS of miles. If you drive 5000-8000 a year, buyers who lease SUVs couldn't care less. They'll still go and have $150 meals at Cheesecake Factory with family. Buyers of new vehicles such as SUVs don't always consider gas prices over actual utility. Heck, I know a family with 10 kids. They care little about gas prices. I can't see families eyeing $5/gas and running off to buy a $100k Model X 6-7 seater. It's dumb to buy a "new" car to fix a specific short term financial problem. Buy a used SUV instead of new and save $20K. The consumer mindset is out about 1-2 years max. And if you're wealthy enough to buy a Tesla, you are also wealthy enough to buy gas at almost any price.

You pointed out actual reasons to buy MX. Window View, FWD, novelty, green-feelings, etc. Those are the objectives of the buyer. By the way, a car does not have to be electric to have FSD. FSD could become "de-norm" in the industry across all automakers. They're vying for the money of large firms who want to eventually automate labor costs of driver-jobs. Imagine Uber without having to pay drivers. Taxi companies. Delivery services. And more. Every automaker, truck maker, semi-maker and their customers want FSD. Autonomous is not necessarily a people mover. It can also be looked at as a people replacer.

Well the SUV segment is strongly correlated with gas prices, although the luxury segment may not necessarily be as strongly affected. When gas averaged above $4 per gallon, SUV sales tanked and people were trying to sell their used ones such that it flooded the used car market.

 

[McRat]

Extra Large 4x4 SUVs of today, using the stricter EPA mileage #s get far better mileage than they used to. The days of the 12mpg SUV is long gone. 70mph on the freeway is about 20mpg, 65 is 21-22.

 

[larmor]

Argument holds up if you drive LOTS of miles. If you drive 5000-8000 a year, buyers who lease SUVs couldn't care less. They'll still go and have $150 meals at Cheesecake Factory with family. Buyers of new vehicles such as SUVs don't always consider gas prices over actual utility. Heck, I know a family with 10 kids. They care little about gas prices. I can't see families eyeing $5/gas and running off to buy a $100k Model X 6-7 seater. It's dumb to buy a "new" car to fix a specific short term financial problem. Buy a used SUV instead of new and save $20K. The consumer mindset is out about 1-2 years max. And if you're wealthy enough to buy a Tesla, you are also wealthy enough to buy gas at almost any price.

You pointed out actual reasons to buy MX. Window View, FWD, novelty, green-feelings, etc. Those are the objectives of the buyer. By the way, a car does not have to be electric to have FSD. FSD could become "de-norm" in the industry across all automakers. They're vying for the money of large firms who want to eventually automate labor costs of driver-jobs. Imagine Uber without having to pay drivers. Taxi companies. Delivery services. And more. Every automaker, truck maker, semi-maker and their customers want FSD. Autonomous is not necessarily a people mover. It can also be looked at as a people replacer.

That is true, low mileage in the rest of the world, here in socal, average miles driven is much much higher. There are alot of GLs here, but now with GLC recent update, there are now alot of GLCs around. And mercedes raised their GL prices and the dealer always tells you they are in high demand.

Agreed, alot people don't look at gas prices for luxury SUVs, but in my experience my significant other is very sharp, and does care about operating costs...

My last gl which got 12 mpg was from 2012 (old i guess) and i did want the instant pick up and hence its associated gas penalty.

Also my auto mindset is different, i leased a GL for five years, cuz i didn't want the hassle of the transaction to get a new leased car. If i had bought it, would have been done for car shopping. Long ago, i got a new C350, drove it for 9 years and last 196,000 miles...

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Actually, all the FWD discussion is probably on topic. Comparing Model X sales to other vehicles, you have to take into account whether the FWD's contribute to or detract from sales. Lots of good perspectives from both sides.

I'm not sure that the definition of "success" for the Model X should be the same as for the Model S, which has almost taken over the premium sedan segment. Would it be great if the Model X did the same? Sure it would. Is the Model X then deemed a "failure" if it doesn't? I don't think so.

The Model S will go down in history, already has actually, as the single EV that proved that EV's don't have to have any constraints versus Ice cars. The sales numbers reflect that the demand was always there for such a vehicle, it just didn't exist.

While the large SUV segment is currently "in favor" due to low gas prices, the Model X is a very expensive vehicle. I think Tesla will be fine with X sales as long as they are able to sell them at a profit.

If the Model 3 does what the Model S did, and given the reservation numbers it may even surpass it, meaning becoming one of the best selling cars period, then Tesla will be 2 for 3 in the "complete game changer" category.

No company hits a grand slam with every product they release. Nor do they have to. The Model S was a very tough act to follow.

I would expect Model X sales to benefit from the 2170 batteries when they switch over to them, and can reduce the price.

RT

I never said Model X would need to take over its segment, though, to be a success. I don't recall anyone else suggesting that either.

But Model S sits in such a small segment that even if it owned all of it, Model X should sell significantly more than Model S just by selling "normally".

It seems Model S is overperforming in its segment - and Model X is underperforming in its own. Falcon wings seem like a plausible reason.

That's the failure so far. We shall see if it lasts.

 

[RubberToe]

February results are now in:

[URL=http://s882.photobucket.com/user/RubberToe420/media/mx_zpspfw13fek.jpg.html][/URL]

SUV sales continue booming. In 2016, the Model X was the 5th best selling on the list here, at 8.76% of all sales. Escalade was in 4th, selling 26,690 versus the Model X's 18,295. The Caddy sales are dropping like a rock, so the Model X should easily pass it.The GL is doing well, but the XC90 has had a couple bad months in a row. We shall see.

Cheap gas rules! The thing is, if gas prices go up $1.00 per gallon, it will impact the sales of the lower priced SUV's more than the expensive ones. Anyone corking off $150,000 on a Model X doesn't care what gas costs to begin with, but someone deciding between a $50,000 SUV and a $30,000 car that gets 58 MPG (I'm looking at you Hyundia Ioniq Hybrid) might actually think things through.

Remember, it only takes one unstable hot head to light the fuse in the Middle East. And it's going to be one long hot summer there I'm sure.

RT

 

[Sean Wagner]

I take it the Tesla numbers' source is the estimate from insideevs. But the Fremont factory is producing roundabout 8000 vehicles per month now, and usually more than half the output stays in the US. Even if the Model X is only a third of that lower bound, they could be moving 1330 vehicles.

 

[RubberToe]

Yes insideevs. Tesla has a habit of shipping all early quarter output overseas so it arrives and gets delivered before the end of the quarter. U.S. cars are delivered at the highest rate in the last month of the quarter since they travel less distance. At some point Tesla will stop "gaming the system" to maximize quarterly revenue, and run the factory to produce cars in the most efficient manner. The end result would be fewer deliveries for a single quarter, and from then on it would be more steady. But for now, when Tesla misses quarterly goals, the world comes to an end.

RT

 

[McRat]

... The Caddy sales are dropping like a rock, so the Model X should easily pass it...

Correction: Cadillac sold 39,092 Escalades in 2016 in the USA . They have sold 4643 so far this year in the USA.

The monster Escalades have not been "falling like a rock", they just don't sell like GMC and Chevrolet do. Escalade 116/130" US sales:
2013 = 20.5k
2014 = 30.5k
2015 = 35.9k
2016 = 39.1k

GM sells 5 models of large/XL luxury SUV's, including 3 of the largest with 130" wheelbases (Model X = 116"). The 'large' GM luxury SUV is 116" wheelbase.

2016 GM luxury large/XL SUV sales:
Escalade 116/130 WB = 39,092
Yukon 116/130 WB = 90,501
Chevy 116/130 WB = 163,388

Total 2016 GM large/XL frame chassis luxury SUVs US sales = 326,776

They are about 11% of sales.

 

[Driver Dave]

Tesla has a lot of road to catch up on though it already beat Toyota and Lexus in the short run thus far.

Which is pretty amazing in itself.

Then again, I went from Landcruiser to LX570 to X... and never going back.

So maybe there are more like me, making the switch.

 

[Sean Wagner]

...U.S. cars are delivered at the highest rate in the last month of the quarter since they travel less distance. At some point Tesla will stop "gaming the system" to maximize quarterly revenue, and run the factory to produce cars in the most efficient manner. The end result would be fewer deliveries for a single quarter, and from then on it would be more steady. But for now, when Tesla misses quarterly goals, the world comes to an end.

RT

Thank you! I'm very curious to uncover the effects of the newly sustained higher rate of production.

 

[FlatSix911]

Yes insideevs. Tesla has a habit of shipping all early quarter output overseas so it arrives and gets delivered before the end of the quarter. U.S. cars are delivered at the highest rate in the last month of the quarter since they travel less distance. At some point Tesla will stop "gaming the system" to maximize quarterly revenue, and run the factory to produce cars in the most efficient manner. The end result would be fewer deliveries for a single quarter, and from then on it would be more steady. But for now, when Tesla misses quarterly goals, the world comes to an end.
RT

Here is the Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

[RubberToe]

March is now in the history books:

Escalade continues to be the worst underperformer (right McRat? ), with March sales about half what they were last March. I noted in the Model S thread that overall U.S. light vehicle sales are now starting to trend down from all time highs. Not visible here in the SUV world yet, with this March's sales being 19,558 versus last years 17,769.

RT

 

[FlatSix911]

The Tesla Model S is back on top with the Model X at number 4 Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

[ElectricTundra]

March is now in the history books:

Thanks @RubberToe. X seems to be settling in to about 9% marketshare for the segment and not able to get above it. Demand or supply constraint?

 

[RubberToe]

April numbers are now in:

Declining sales overall are now creeping into the Luxury SUV world. Land Cruiser went from green to red, so now only 5 of the 10 are doing better than the previous year. Mat could very well see the overall totals go red, almost did it this month.

RT

 

[AnxietyRanger]

With a few more months of fully ramped up data since our previous conversation, I continue to believe falcon wings (including the lack of folding 6/7 seater, lack of roof racks, usability/too different concerns, increased price etc. they are causing) are detrimental to Model X sales.

No matter how you slice it, Model X simply is not selling as well as a premium SUV on average, which is a huge market (much larger than premium sedans). And it is failing to double Tesla's sales even. On the other hand Model S is selling better than a premium sedan/hatchback should sell on average, because it appeals to a very wide audience. Model S is brilliant for what it is.

Model X is a complex weirdmobile monster and that is not appealing to the average buyer. My feelings on this have only grown since finally getting one myself in Q1. And by now I think we are beginning to have enough data on this to say it like it is.

Perhaps the falcon wings will still be able to vindicate themselves in that Tesla minibus or something, but other than that, they have been an expensive mistake. A few owners enjoying them for putting in babies does not a success make.

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Model Y moving on to the next generation is a result of Tesla cancelling a falcon wing car based on Model 3.

Just being realistic. I like that mechanical dance, but they are far from practical in so many ways - and what's more they are not perceived as practical either which hinders adoption ever more, in my view.

 

[PedanticOne]

With a few more months of fully ramped up data since our previous conversation, I continue to believe falcon wings (including the lack of folding 6/7 seater, lack of roof racks, usability/too different concerns, increased price etc. they are causing) are detrimental to Model X sales.

While I don't doubt that, OTOH, every one of those other cars gets a lot more advertising than a Tesla. I'm frankly amazed Tesla is doing as well as they are given they do zero advertising. Heck, some people still don't even know what a Tesla is, or are still scared of going electric.

 

[nikeykid]

With a few more months of fully ramped up data since our previous conversation, I continue to believe falcon wings (including the lack of folding 6/7 seater, lack of roof racks, usability/too different concerns, increased price etc. they are causing) are detrimental to Model X sales.

No matter how you slice it, Model X simply is not selling as well as a premium SUV on average, which is a huge market (much larger than premium sedans). And it is failing to double Tesla's sales even. On the other hand Model S is selling better than a premium sedan/hatchback should sell on average, because it appeals to a very wide audience. Model S is brilliant for what it is.

Model X is a complex weirdmobile monster and that is not appealing to the average buyer. My feelings on this have only grown since finally getting one myself in Q1. And by now I think we are beginning to have enough data on this to say it like it is.

Perhaps the falcon wings will still be able to vindicate themselves in that Tesla minibus or something, but other than that, they have been an expensive mistake. A few owners enjoying them for putting in babies does not a success make.

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Model Y moving on to the next generation is a result of Tesla cancelling a falcon wing car based on Model 3.

Just being realistic. I like that mechanical dance, but they are far from practical in so many ways - and what's more they are not perceived as practical either which hinders adoption ever more, in my view.

i hear all those points but i don't think you can really look at April US sales as indicative of how model X is selling in the US. Generally tesla is producing S and Xs for overseas in the first month of each quarter, then producing domestic cars at the end of the quarter.