Model X Signature Configuration has begun!

[FlasherZ]

2015 Aug 54,000 (14,500 for 2015 + prior years)

The current rate has them selling more than 20,000 in the US for 2015. Ramping up Model X and production in general might trigger the 200,000 mark in 2018? I figure it'll be a Model 3 that is the 200,000th sold in the US (or at least Model 3 sales will be under the 200,000 mark and contribute to the total).

I was doing a bit of estimation math of my own... 50,000 units with a bit more than half (or more) of them in the US in 2015, with an acceleration toward 2018. In 2014, 55% of units were sold in the US, and they produced 35,000 cars. So your 2014 number should be roughly 19k or so. In 2015, that would represent 27,500 (not 14,500 that you estimate). A ramp-up of the factory will result in more numbers, especially as line 2 begins operating at peak efficiency... I'm guessing by 2017 they can get 75k-100k vehicles, which would give us 40k-50k per year in the US. By that time, in early '18, the Model 3 triggers the phase-out in the first few ten-thousand or so.

Note my comment is when the phase-out is started (200k is hit), not when the credit isn't available anymore.

I agree with you that the Model 3 will trigger the phase-out - "the first few thousand" or so is what I had figured.

 

[dhanson865]

I was doing a bit of estimation math of my own... 50,000 units with a bit more than half (or more) of them in the US in 2015, with an acceleration toward 2018. In 2014, 55% of units were sold in the US, and they produced 35,000 cars. So your 2014 number should be roughly 19k or so. In 2015, that would represent 27,500 (not 14,500 that you estimate). A ramp-up of the factory will result in more numbers, especially as line 2 begins operating at peak efficiency... I'm guessing by 2017 they can get 75k-100k vehicles, which would give us 40k-50k per year in the US. By that time, in early '18, the Model 3 triggers the phase-out in the first few ten-thousand or so.

Note my comment is when the phase-out is started (200k is hit), not when the credit isn't available anymore.

I agree with you that the Model 3 will trigger the phase-out - "the first few thousand" or so is what I had figured.

You seem to misunderstand the significance of the formatting of this line

2015 Aug 54,000 (14,500 for 2015 + prior years)

That is 14,500 from Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard which is the best historical number you can get without waiting for a quarterly conference call. You seem to be assuming that I'm doing some sort of estimate of that number when I'm just pulling existing data.

again the actual data is

US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger
2011 end 1,900 (roadster 1900)
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 Model S for 2012 + prior year (1900 roadster))
2013 end 22,200 (17,650 for 2013 + prior years (the 22,200 was correct, had a typo of 14,650 but did the math with 17,650)
2014 end 39,500 (17,300 for 2014 + prior years)

2015 Aug 54,000 (14,500 for 2015 + prior years)

now from Sept 2015 forward you can toss in your estimates.

Are you saying you expect Tesla to deliver 13,000 cars between Sept 1 2015 and Dec 31 2015? Assuming you do that gets you to 27,500 for 2015 and to 49,500 for the 2011 to 2015 total.

Then you say you expect 40,000 to 50,000 in 2017. That takes us to 89,500 to 99,500 at end of 2017 without 2016 in the mix.

For that to run out the credit 2016 would have to produce twice as much as 2017 in your scenario. Do you see the disconnect?

Even if 2016 gets the same 50,000 then that leaves another 50,000+ for 2018 and then another 6 months of sales to make it over 100,000 model 3s with the full credit.

Leave out the world numbers and stick to the US and tell me what you expect for 2016 and 2017 if I've misunderstood your math.

Even if you and I are in agreement on the ramp up I feel it is worth it to make these numbers clear to others that don't realize it phases out. Too many posts use terminology that make it sound to the uninformed like a hard cutoff.

 

[Max*]

Is your 2013 off by 3,000? (that link has 17,650, not 14,650)

 

[lloyds]

Does it state anywhere in the configurator that the larger wheels will affect range?

 

[Red Sage]

And the headrests are shaped like a cone! ... Content for small childs are hard to get in a format that can be stored on a tablet. Streaming? Not an option for out of country travel...

Velcro straps work wonders. Not all content is streaming. You can download video of television shows and movies to removable media attached to a tablet -- though maybe not an iPad. I use Android devices, some use Amazon Fire HD, or Microsoft Surface.

They barely have any padding, they're tiny, and the "upholstery" is a nylon mesh.

Somehow, I hadn't realized that those third row seats for Model S are always black. It hadn't occurred to me to inquire whether they would match the upholstery of the rest of the car for some reason...

 

[NigelM]

Content for small childs are hard to get in a format that can be stored on a tablet.

Dora the Explorer.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

You can download video of television shows and movies to removable media attached to a tablet -- though maybe not an iPad. I use Android devices, some use Amazon Fire HD, or Microsoft Surface.

I've been doing this for years and it is so much cheaper than streaming or renting/buying a video from an app store. It does take some planning but is free or nearly free. You can use programs such as AnyDVD and Handbrake to easily rip movies. Also, Amazon Prime just a announced downloadable content this week and Comcast and other cable companies have apps which do this as well.

 

[etm33]

I'm going to quote myself from another thread. I find your responses about it "running out" misleading.

{snip}

If that rolls them into the next quarter it extends the tax credit by 3 months no matter how many they sell after that.

I've seen similar elsewhere, but thanks for the great summary.

 

[gizmoboy]

I would argue Tim Cook's logistical genius, while not exciting, is one core element of Apple's resurgence and was not a strength of Jobs.

And I would agree with you 102%

 

[dhanson865]

Is your 2013 off by 3,000? (that link has 17,650, not 14,650)

2013 end 22,200 (17,650 for 2013 + prior years (the 22,200 was correct, had a typo of 14,650 but did the math with 17,650)

edited the post above to correct the typo, good catch since the math above and below wasn't affected you'd have to pay attention to notice.

 

[FlasherZ]

You seem to misunderstand the significance of the formatting of this line

2015 Aug 54,000 (14,500 for 2015 + prior years)

Okay, I thought your 2015 number was estimated end of 2015 #'s and I was going to say that an estimate of 14,500 was far too low for US sales in 2015.

With Model S and Model X deliveries over 2016 and 2017, I think it's reasonable to expect they can achieve 40k-50k cars each year (or more) in the US.

I'm using rough estimates - from the reports I saw (can't recall exactly where at the moment, since I'm mobile), the US mix in 2014 has been reported at 55%, not 49% (17300/35000). Using that same mix, 50,000 cars produced in 2015 would give you 27,500. So 39,500+27,500 = 67,000. Add 90,000 for 2016 and 2017 and you get 157,000. I guess I'm a bit short, then, but it's clear that by mid-2018, if Model 3 is shipping, the 200,000 mark is reached and the ramp starts.

 

[jomo25]

I've been doing this for years and it is so much cheaper than streaming or renting/buying a video from an app store. It does take some planning but is free or nearly free. You can use programs such as AnyDVD and Handbrake to easily rip movies. Also, Amazon Prime just a announced downloadable content this week and Comcast and other cable companies have apps which do this as well.

I rip all our DVDs to video files. That way I can put them on any device and have them play from our Plex server. I agree that builtin entertainment systems are a waste of money, given the extreme premium they place on the prices.

Also, to get around the "post less" headrests, I got these iPad mini cases (Amazon.com: iPad Mini Case, i-Blason ArmorBox Kido Series for Apple iPad Mini 3, iPad Mini, iPad Mini with Retina Display Light Weight Super Protection Convertible Stand Cover Case for Kids Friendly (Green): Computers Accessories) that all you to hook it up around the headrests if each kid want stop watch their own shows. Also, you can get a simple stand like this (http://www.containerstore.com/s/tablet-ereader-stand/d?productId=10033951&q=ipad%20stand) and place it towards the back of the armrests if you want to let multiple kids watch together.

- - - Updated - - -

I may have missed it, but did we ever get confirmation of the charger rates for the X? 10kW, 15kW, 20kW? Dual chargers? Single chargers? Since its not listed on the configurator or the confirmation list, I'm inclined to think it is only a single charger, and the rumor that it was only 60A capable (15kW) was true.

 

[CarlK]

My thought on this is:

People generally don't talk about something that didn't change if they like it and there was no indication it would change. The people who talk are the ones who don't like that it didn't change. So, even if it's a tiny minority on the whole, it seems like a big majority here on the forum.

I personally love the minimalist interior, so I'm happy Tesla has stuck with it.

Count me too as a person who likes the unique minimalist interior. I'm really glad that Tesla did not give in and drift to the fancy or some called luxury direction.

 

[smartypnz]

Count me too as a person who likes the unique minimalist interior. I'm really glad that Tesla did not give in and drift to the fancy or some called luxury direction.

I would have actually preferred bean bag chairs. But with taste, of course.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Peter Carlsson: Executive Bios | Tesla Motors

Let us hope that Mr. Carlsson is up to the challenge. If he can make mass production of Model 3 happen, he will become a legend.

I would argue Tim Cook's logistical genius, while not exciting, is one core element of Apple's resurgence and was not a strength of Jobs.

Apple's recovery and rise to the top is definitely a great example of how many elements are needed for a company to be successful. Without Steve Jobs, there was no product vision and no "editor" so to speak. Without Jony Ive, no expert to give that vision physical form. Without Tim Cook, no way to replicate that physical form tens of millions of times over and deliver to customers.

It may be years before the inside story on Model X comes out, but I'm very curious as to how Elon, Franz, Mr. Carlsson, and others collaborated on Model X. It seems to have been a much more difficult process than anyone expected.

 

[PoweredByRain]

I may have missed it, but did we ever get confirmation of the charger rates for the X? 10kW, 15kW, 20kW? Dual chargers? Single chargers? Since its not listed on the configurator or the confirmation list, I'm inclined to think it is only a single charger, and the rumor that it was only 60A capable (15kW) was true.

I don't think you can conclude anything at this point. You can't order a Model S from the factory with dual chargers either. The addition of a second charger is done at the service centre.

Tesla Accessories and Charging Adapters Dual Charger with Installation

I very much doubt that there is inadequate room in the X for dual chargers. If there is a new 60A charger, then the implications could be significant for Superchargers, as they use a stack of the car chargers in parallel. Maybe an increase in peak Supercharger power is in the works? That would be quite something to announce at the Model X delivery ceremony. (Just dreaming...)

 

[ohmman]

I wish someone would post a simple explaination of the NEMA 14-50 versus j1772 versus HPWC, versus.......

I can't seem to sort all this out and will need to make decisions with the MX and wiring in two houses very soon.

HPWC: A wall connector that includes Tesla charging cable and handle. Can be directly wired to 100A/240V circuit, which would provide 80A or 20kW of charging, around 58mph (assuming the vehicle can accept 20kW, which means dual chargers in the MS). Can also be wired to smaller circuits in case you don't have room for expansion, and in some cases owners have wired it to a 14-50 (below). This is the most expensive option.
NEMA 14-50: A standard wall outlet that runs at 50A/240V. This delivers 40A or 10kW, around 29mph. You would use your UMC (charging cable that comes with the car) to connect from the car to the wall outlet. This is the most affordable option, and is more than adequate for most owners.
J1772: Connector type used for other electric cars. Public chargers (in the US anyway) are usually J1772 and provide a range of amperage and voltages. The MS (and I assume MX) comes with an adapter that connects from the J1772 to the Tesla charge port. You put this adapter in your charge port, then plug the J1772. This is a "universal" option.

If you're considering for homes, the first two options are the best unless you plan to have a variety of other-branded EVs. I have a HPWC because I like the idea of my UMC always being in the car. I also like the look of the HPWC, I have dual chargers on my MS, and I like the idea of loading it up quickly if necessary. In 16 months, it's been needed only once: the car hadn't charged overnight because the handle wasn't inserted all the way, and I needed to quickly charge in the morning.

Hope this helps.

 

[JST]

To add to ohmman's summary, check the FAQ available here:

FAQ: Home Tesla charging infrastructure QA

 

[Mark Z]

I wish someone would post a simple explaination of the NEMA 14-50 versus j1772 versus HPWC, versus.......
I can't seem to sort all this out and will need to make decisions with the MX and wiring in two houses very soon.

(after I posted I noticed the great advice from ohmman and JST. I give a different angle to the question, so enjoy the added info)

Tesla Motor's site explaining the charging is very informative and mandatory reading for every Tesla buyer, so start with that now: Tesla Charging | Tesla Motors

Only the Wall Connector (HPWC) will give you the ability to just plug-in without fuss. No adapters or connecting the included charge cord is required. Can charge at various levels, but if you can, install a 100 amp circuit breaker for maximum charging. In my area a separate cut-off switch in the same area as the HPWC is required for the 100 amp install, so check with an electrician about that requirement if you are planning more than a 50 amp circuit breaker.

For NEMA 14-50 you can buy a 50 amp RV power panel for outside or inside installation or a wall flush mounted socket. Use a 50 circuit breaker and it provides 40 amps to the Tesla EV. At $28 this lockable metal box with the included socket is the most value for the money. http://www.lowes.com/pd_242308-82364-CHU1S_0__

J1772 is an expensive choice and you would have to use the included adapter from Tesla Motors every time you charge at home. Skip it until you need one for another manufacture of EV. 30 amp maximum is limiting factor with a 40 amp circuit breaker.

Whatever you choose, have an electrician put in adequate wire size for the NEMA 14-50 or HPWC. I had both HPWC and NEMA 14-50 installed in my garage and it came in handy when the HPWC failed. If you have an electric clothes dryer outlet in the garage, Tesla Motors may have an adapter for that socket. I no longer see the NEMA 14-30 adapter for the 4 prong dryer outlets. But it can be a nice "gotta have it today" solution if you have a three prong NEMA 10-30 dryer outlet or need to charge where one exists: Tesla Accessories and Charging Adapters Charging and Adapters

And one more thing... Check with your electric company about lower rates for electric vehicles. Some rates require a second meter install, so that should be checked on when you are installing new wiring. (Tacoma Public Utilities is not showing any EV topics, but Southern California Edison certainly does.)

 

[ChadS]

While a little outdated (and written before Tesla had something very comprehensive), another explanation of Model S charging options is HERE.