Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[Mrbrock]

Since they have a year's worth of backlog making the existing model Y, there really isn't ANY market reason to offer a cheaper model.

There might be a short term technical or logistical reason to stretch the limited supply of 2170 and 4680 batteries across as many cars as possible. Or it could be that something with the 4680 pack that means a standard-range model is best to start with....

It's weird. But it almost can't be a need to make a new model to drum up more demand.

There are a lot of reasons. You have a $56,000 order but have it on hold waiting for 4680? Well, here it is. 280 miles. Take it now or release your hold on a 2170 from fremont. Sh!t or get off the pot. And it saves 4680 cells allowing them to make more. If this is simply a strategic move, it’s brilliant. You want to play chicken? Tesla is calling your bluff. This might be a limited time offering only to existing reservation holders. Draw down the on hold backlog and spread out 4680 cells.

Or it is a combination of that and hiding an issue with 4680 production.

This has nothing to do with drumming up more demand. It is an offering to ease demand and save money in the process while working out kinks of a new factory and new cell production.

And, fwiw, the EPA certification website is down. Routine maintenance or ???

 

[ZenRockGarden]

There are a lot of reasons. You have a $56,000 order but have it on hold waiting for 4680? Well, here it is. 280 miles. Take it now or release your hold on a 2170 from fremont. Sh!t or get off the pot. And it saves 4680 cells allowing them to make more. If this is simply a strategic move, it’s brilliant. You want to play chicken? Tesla is calling your bluff. This might be a limited time offering only to existing reservation holders. Draw down the on hold backlog and spread out 4680 cells.

Or it is a combination of that and hiding an issue with 4680 production.

This has nothing to do with drumming up more demand. It is an offering to ease demand and save money in the process while working out kinks of a new factory and new cell production.

And, fwiw, the EPA certification website is down. Routine maintenance or ???

Again, Tesla has ZERO concern with someone upset and cancelling their MYLR order - there's literally a hundred thousand more people waiting in line to take it. No reason to change anything about what Fremont is shipping to offer a cheaper price point (with lower margin)

The only two reasons I can see to offer an additional variant right now is either it allows them to make more cars faster (relieves a battery constraint, which Elon has said isn't the issue at the moment), or because their new plant has technical or logistical problems that prevent it from shipping MYLR'S. Neither seems to be true.

 

[Yperformance]

How about another thought. Tesla over inflated the price increase to put pressure on customer s not to risk loosing there locked in price to make sure they took delivery rather than go for the wonderful 4680 structural battery in the coming months, ha . Could be just a shell game. By the way coming from financial markets where blogs are used to manipulate stock prices wonder how many participants here are used to shape expectation for Tesla. Now that's a comment you can really get your teeth into.

 

[bkp_duke]

How about another thought. Tesla over inflated the price increase to put pressure on customer s not to risk loosing there locked in price to make sure they took delivery rather than go for the wonderful 4680 structural battery in the coming months, ha . Could be just a shell game. By the way coming from financial markets where blogs are used to manipulate stock prices wonder how many participants here are used to shape expectation for Tesla. Now that's a comment you can really get your teeth into.

There is no shell game. Tesla's order book is months to nearly a year long for every car they make.

Seriously, have you checked gas prices out lately? Have you been to a showroom? There are LINES at these places with people wanting to see the cars (and then they order on the spot). People are sick of being jerked around by big oil and finally see a viable alternative. Most people on this forum realized this years ago, but it's just now clicking with the masses.

If someone doesn't want their order, Tesla can have it reassigned to someone in the queue in milliseconds.

Supply and demand, and demand is BONKERS right now. The analyst note from Morgan Stanley yesterday said they expect this to continue for at least another 18 months.

 

[Ghostchili]

There are a lot of reasons. You have a $56,000 order but have it on hold waiting for 4680? Well, here it is. 280 miles. Take it now or release your hold on a 2170 from fremont. Sh!t or get off the pot. And it saves 4680 cells allowing them to make more. If this is simply a strategic move, it’s brilliant. You want to play chicken? Tesla is calling your bluff. This might be a limited time offering only to existing reservation holders. Draw down the on hold backlog and spread out 4680 cells.

Or it is a combination of that and hiding an issue with 4680 production.

This has nothing to do with drumming up more demand. It is an offering to ease demand and save money in the process while working out kinks of a new factory and new cell production.

And, fwiw, the EPA certification website is down. Routine maintenance or ???

What percentage of orders are on hold? I would think it’s such a small number that Tesla doesn’t even care. The average consumer buying the Model Y or any Tesla doesn’t read forums or have a clue on what batteries are in it. If Tesla was worried about held orders I would think they would tell the SA to talk customers out of it. Mine recommended I put mine on hold to see what new comes up.

 

[Quagmire2]

What percentage of orders are on hold? I would think it’s such a small number that Tesla doesn’t even care. The average consumer buying the Model Y or any Tesla doesn’t read forums or have a clue on what batteries are in it. If Tesla was worried about held orders I would think they would tell the SA to talk customers out of it. Mine recommended I put mine on hold to see what new comes up.

If Tesla didn't care, they wouldn't have implemented the new 90-120 day hold policy and sending emails to people approaching that limit with saying, " Take the hold off by March 23rd or face cancellation". And it isn't a bluff, people who tried to call it got their orders cancelled.

I will agree that the amount of holders are a minority, but clearly enough for Tesla to do something about it. It's still abuse of the system. It seems like Tesla has made changes( big or small) every quarter and we have people jumping through hoops in order to get those changes. It's getting ridiculous. Especially with these longer wait times and this 90-120 day policy where lets say my moms Y shows up during their vacation and have to let that car go, the order may not be able to be put on hold and the next VIN is assigned quickly to where they are still not available and boom order cancelled. One part of that is Tesla's absolutely crappy customer service, but the other part is these holders have affected people's abilities to put off delivery with legit reasons. Instead of people chasing headlights, biohazard mode, tax credits, etc.

 

[advocate8]

except it apparently weighs the same, so it probably isn’t using half the batteries.

There is no shell game. Tesla's order book is months to nearly a year long for every car they make.

Seriously, have you checked gas prices out lately? Have you been to a showroom? There are LINES at these places with people wanting to see the cars (and then they order on the spot). People are sick of being jerked around by big oil and finally see a viable alternative. Most people on this forum realized this years ago, but it's just now clicking with the masses.

If someone doesn't want their order, Tesla can have it reassigned to someone in the queue in milliseconds.

Supply and demand, and demand is BONKERS right now. The analyst note from Morgan Stanley yesterday said they expect this to continue for at least another 18 months.

Bingo. I would bet fewer than 5 percent of the couple hundred thousand current order holders even know what 4680 is.
And there may be a few hundred of those holding order up. It isn’t a phenomenon anywhere except in a few minds here and on Reddit.
Did you ever notice only like 10 people even here focus on the subject?

 

[pepperoni]

What if… we’re all just getting punked by Tesla. There is no 279 mile AWD model, it’s just a ruse to prevent a rash of EOQ holds. Then the actual specs for the Austin Y get revealed in the “corrected” EPA report submitted Feb 23, which is… another MYLR.

Or maybe this was some big screwup, and Tesla is just ask shocked as we are that their updated model with the fancy new batteries lost 50 miles of range. Imagine the screaming coming from the corner office.

I’m only half joking. I just can’t see them starting to take orders for a 279 mile model with a 6-9 month waiting list for the 330 range model. They are taking orders even today, starting at $64K and promising 330 miles of range. They’re going to what? Deliver these customers a 279 mile version instead, knowing today that these people would never be receiving a 330 range model when they ordered?

 

[BGOwner]

If Tesla didn't care, they wouldn't have implemented the new 90-120 day hold policy and sending emails to people approaching that limit with saying, " Take the hold off by March 23rd or face cancellation". And it isn't a bluff, people who tried to call it got their orders cancelled.

I will agree that the amount of holders are a minority, but clearly enough for Tesla to do something about it. It's still abuse of the system. It seems like Tesla has made changes( big or small) every quarter and we have people jumping through hoops in order to get those changes. It's getting ridiculous. Especially with these longer wait times and this 90-120 day policy where lets say my moms Y shows up during their vacation and have to let that car go, the order may not be able to be put on hold and the next VIN is assigned quickly to where they are still not available and boom order cancelled. One part of that is Tesla's absolutely crappy customer service, but the other part is these holders have affected people's abilities to put off delivery with legit reasons. Instead of people chasing headlights, biohazard mode, tax credits, etc.

Or just to lock in price. When I first ordered, there were a number of people that were posting that had Year or longer holds. No reason other than they were not ready to get the car, but wanted to lock in the price. When you have orders that the price has increased by 15-20k, its a bad thing overall and hurts the bottom line of Tesla. Not many but enough where they can't let you have a locked in price forever.

 

[yepeekai]

The 279 miles AWD model EPA document is submitted by Tesla... so it is not a screwup

 

[advocate8]

What if… we’re all just getting punked by Tesla. There is no 279 mile AWD model, it’s just a ruse to prevent a rash of EOQ holds. Then the actual specs for the Austin Y get revealed in the “corrected” EPA report submitted Feb 23, which is… another MYLR.

Or maybe this was some big screwup, and Tesla is just ask shocked as we are that their updated model with the fancy new batteries lost 50 miles of range. Imagine the screaming coming from the corner office.

I’m only half joking. I just can’t see them starting to take orders for a 279 mile model with a 6-9 month waiting list for the 330 range model. They are taking orders even today, starting at $64K and promising 330 miles of range. They’re going to what? Deliver these customers a 279 mile version instead, knowing today that these people would never be receiving a 330 range model when they ordered?

Oh we’re getting punked all right.
By sawyer and bearded Tesla guy, the drone guys….
And yeah, I punked MYSELF a little. Guilty.

 

[Quagmire2]

Or just to lock in price. When I first ordered, there were a number of people that were posting that had Year or longer holds. No reason other than they were not ready to get the car, but wanted to lock in the price. When you have orders that the price has increased by 15-20k, its a bad thing overall and hurts the bottom line of Tesla. Not many but enough where they can't let you have a locked in price forever.

While I am not sympathetic to Tesla's bottom line, the locked in price holders can be lumped in to the feature chasers in my disdain for these holders.

 

[pepperoni]

The 279 miles AWD model EPA document is submitted by Tesla... so it is not a screwup

Ergo, they knowingly submitted a report for a 279 range car they’re not selling just to see how the gearheads on TMC would flip out.

 

[yepeekai]

There will be a 279 miles AWD MY produced in Austin as per the discussions done on this thread.

The idea that a LR MY and/or perfomance MY may be also built in Austin without EPA recertification is "possible" (I don't know all the rules) but there are some things that don't add up: an LR MY with structural pack, front casting and 4680 would have a different weight (mostly impossible to have the same weight with all those changes) so the spec in the application document would be off... also, if the 4680 are what they told it would be (more energy for the same weight) the EPA rating would also be different: the battery would be lighter for the same energy capacity, so: for the range to be the same, the MPGe would have to be different. I don't think it is legal or otherwise to produce a car that is different from the specs that were submitted to EPA

 

[advocate8]

While I am not sympathetic to Tesla's bottom line, the locked in price holders can be lumped in to the feature chasers in my disdain for these holders.

Hell yeah.
I don’t feel disappointed myself, Fremont cars I’ve looked at lately are awesome.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

If Tesla didn't care, they wouldn't have implemented the new 90-120 day hold policy and sending emails to people approaching that limit with saying, " Take the hold off by March 23rd or face cancellation". And it isn't a bluff, people who tried to call it got their orders cancelled.

I will agree that the amount of holders are a minority, but clearly enough for Tesla to do something about it. It's still abuse of the system. It seems like Tesla has made changes( big or small) every quarter and we have people jumping through hoops in order to get those changes. It's getting ridiculous. Especially with these longer wait times and this 90-120 day policy where lets say my moms Y shows up during their vacation and have to let that car go, the order may not be able to be put on hold and the next VIN is assigned quickly to where they are still not available and boom order cancelled. One part of that is Tesla's absolutely crappy customer service, but the other part is these holders have affected people's abilities to put off delivery with legit reasons. Instead of people chasing headlights, biohazard mode, tax credits, etc.

Simple: Stale orders lock in older, cheaper prices. Tesla wants to deal with customers who want to take delivery, at current price, now.

 

[Quagmire2]

Simple: Stale orders lock in older, cheaper prices. Tesla wants to deal with customers who want to take delivery, at current price, now.

Oh I understand Tesla's motivation for the changes is purely monetary than actually caring about poor old me wanting to take delivery of my car, but these holders keep on clogging up the order queue.

But there wouldn't be a monetary motivation for Tesla for these changes if it was only 100 people lets say doing this. It's enough though a minority for Tesla to do something about it.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Or just to lock in price. When I first ordered, there were a number of people that were posting that had Year or longer holds. No reason other than they were not ready to get the car, but wanted to lock in the price. When you have orders that the price has increased by 15-20k, its a bad thing overall and hurts the bottom line of Tesla. Not many but enough where they can't let you have a locked in price forever.

This is exactly why they put an end to holds over a specific length of time. If tesla didn't care they wouldn't have changed their policy. It had obviously become enough of a problem at the end of 2021 that they had to send out the take or cancel threats.

If there is another non-retro rebate or they do change model specs again I am sure we will see it again. Tesla should allow holds of up to a month for people to put finances in order, availability, holidays etc... especially after the waiting hell they put others through. They should also hold the actual car at the local SC and after the hold period just cancel if not taken.

 

[Blueswoosh248]

Never understood why the holds are happening in droves, so this was informative for me.

I locked in my delivery in October 2021, and have never put it on hold once. I have to admit, I love the pricing I got, and it’s the main reason I’m hanging on so long.

Would gladly take delivery of whatever new MYLR in my config that they offered me, but that won’t be until May-June based on latest EDD, or possibly longer because I have vacations planned this summer and I’m not basing my life around a date that has shifted 6 times so far.

 

[Ron J.]

Some upcoming dates/events. 3 weeks from today will be giga-fest when a lot more should be revealed about what (and when) will be producved at Austin and maybe even plans for Fremont upgrades. Even earlier is the timeline Elon mentioned at the Jan 26 earnings call when he said he expected the MY deliveries from Austin would begin by the end of this quarter (end of March). If Elon's hopes become a reality, then perhaps next week we might see some MYs shipping out from Austin. The 3rd event will be 1st quarter 2022 earning call which will likely happen in late April, where more info on Tesla plans may be revealed.

Some people seem to think there is some mystery related to the 2/23/22 Tesla submission to the EPA. There is no mystery as that doc is simply a correction to their earlier submission and the doc is available at the EPA web site. (link posted earlier in this thread)

I appears EPA doesn't post the submissions and also their approval letters until 2 to 4 weeks after the submission or approval actually happens. So it's certainly possible Tesla has made an addiitional submission related to MY LR and/or MY P updated specs, but it just hasn't yet been posted on the EPA web site.