Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[bkp_duke]

Except investors. And you can’t just “lower the range” without re-engineering the battery pack. And the demand would increase so much that people wouldn’t buy the LR 2170 based model because the price difference including the tax rebate would be $66k-$55k+$7.5k=$18.5k. That’s a lot for 51 more miles of range. $363/mile. Applying that to the whole 330 miles of range makes the LR MY “worth” $120k.

Also, that $18,500 difference is almost enough to buy a Chevy volt ($27,500-$7500 rebate).

Sure you can "lower" the range without re-engineering the pack. Tesla has done it multiple times with the S. The 75 pack was installed in cars with software-limited "60" and "70" models.

Can't, and shouldn't, very different in this scenario.

 

[acpd]

Except investors. And you can’t just “lower the range” without re-engineering the battery pack. And the demand would increase so much that people wouldn’t buy the LR 2170 based model because the price difference including the tax rebate would be $66k-$55k+$7.5k=$18.5k. That’s a lot for 51 more miles of range. $363/mile. Applying that to the whole 330 miles of range makes the LR MY “worth” $120k.

Also, that $18,500 difference is almost enough to buy a Chevy volt ($27,500-$7500 rebate).

Its not matter of if just when u see $55k MY.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Its not matter of if just when u see $55k MY.

It'll be tricky offering a min-option or slightly-nerfed MY to hit the $55k price point because if you do so there's now a huge gap in the cost layout between that model and all the slightly-more-expensive MYLR's...

 

[Twiglett]

Except investors. And you can’t just “lower the range” without re-engineering the battery pack. And the demand would increase so much that people wouldn’t buy the LR 2170 based model because the price difference including the tax rebate would be $66k-$55k+$7.5k=$18.5k. That’s a lot for 51 more miles of range. $363/mile. Applying that to the whole 330 miles of range makes the LR MY “worth” $120k.

Also, that $18,500 difference is almost enough to buy a Chevy volt ($27,500-$7500 rebate).

The current price is due for a reset soon anyway the supply chain issues ease and competition increases.
Used prices have already started falling.
I'd be very surprised if we didn't see a reduction in pricing this year.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

The current price is due for a reset soon anyway the supply chain issues ease and competition increases.
Used prices have already started falling.
I'd be very surprised if we didn't see a reduction in pricing this year.

I figure about time Tesla does drop new MYLR prices in order to manage demand vs factory-capacity, the folks yelling for cheaper new car prices will be replaced by equally loud voices that Tesla wrecked their resale value

 

[acpd]

It'll be tricky offering a min-option or slightly-nerfed MY to hit the $55k price point because if you do so there's now a huge gap in the cost layout between that model and all the slightly-more-expensive MYLR's...

It's simple if they lower prices of all models by ~$5k, Everything will line up. 279 range MY used to be $60k.

MY AWD: $55k
MYLR: $61k
MYP: $64k


Don't forget there are plenty of Tesla buyers who don't qualify for Tax credit. So they would prefer to get MY LR or MYP. Win Win..

 

[ZenRockGarden]

It's simple if they lower prices of all models by ~$5k, Everything will line up. 279 range MY used to be $60k.

MY AWD: $55k
MYLR: $61k
MYP: $64k


Don't forget there are plenty of Tesla buyers who don't qualify for Tax credit. So they would prefer to get MY LR or MYP. Win Win..

That functionally makes MYWD $47.5k which is too big a gap up to MYLR... Tesla has regarded MYWD as a MYLR with a slightly different battery for $1k less.

 

[dhanson865]

That functionally makes MYWD $47.5k which is too big a gap up to MYLR... Tesla has regarded MYWD as a MYLR with a slightly different battery for $1k less.

MY AWD needs to be between the Blue and yellow lines, It's way more than 1k less than the yellow line.

For now it can start in the low 50s but it's going to end up below 50 thousand, similar to the old LR RWD price with a solid red line on the left.

For that matter the LR AWD will end up in the low 50s as well (when the MY AWD is in the 40s) .

and the Performance will drop back down into the low 60s.

 

[acpd]

That functionally makes MYWD $47.5k which is too big a gap up to MYLR... Tesla has regarded MYWD as a MYLR with a slightly different battery for $1k less.

Not everyone qualify for Tax credit. Plus MY LR also qualify with 3 row. So in that case MYLR is at $56.5k with 3-row. Customer's can pick what they want. Tesla gets sell anyway and they get full $55k or $61k or $64k.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Not everyone qualify for Tax credit. Plus MY LR also qualify with 3 row. So in that case MYLR is at $56.5k with 3-row. Customer's can pick what they want. Tesla gets sell anyway and they get full $55k or $61k or $64k.

If plenty of customers don't care about tax refund and/or can just ordeer 7 seat, then there's no reason to artificially discount the MYAWD...

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Also - I expect the MYAWD to eventually go away whenever Tesla gets the 4680 teething problems fixed and they can just make what they intended which was a matching MYLR 4680 pack that has the same range as MYLR 2170 so they can sell them under same label.

 

[dhanson865]

Also - I expect the MYAWD to eventually go away whenever Tesla gets the 4680 teething problems fixed and they can just make what they intended which was a matching MYLR 4680 pack that has the same range as MYLR 2170 so they can sell them under same label.

There have been 5 trims of Model Y on the US price chart, it sounds like you think they'll go down to 2 trims only.

I'm saying there is room for 3 or 4 trims at the same time

* Performance
* LR AWD
* SR+ AWD
* SR RWD

Maybe a trim goes away but I'm saying one or two replace it.

 

[acpd]

If plenty of customers don't care about tax refund and/or can just ordeer 7 seat, then there's no reason to artificially discount the MYAWD...

Yes there is. At current prices Tesla won't make q1 numbers. Everyone knows that price cuts are coming. Models with or without tax credit, both needs price cut to make q1 numbers.

 

[Yelobird]

Yes there is. At current prices Tesla won't make q1 numbers. Everyone knows that price cuts are coming. Models with or without tax credit, both needs price cut to make q1 numbers.

Yet they pulled it off for years before the need to discount to appease a government hand out.

 

[acpd]

Yet they pulled it off for years before the need to discount to appease a government hand out.

Let's give it till end of Q1. No need to debate.

 

[CHILLIBAJJI]

past is past.. just because Tesla was able pull off before doesn't mean they could for eternity.
lot of things have changed... including tesla ability to manufacture more and more cars like 50% more... coupled with high prices, hign interest rates, economy, etc... tesla will have to adjust... and they did as indicated by Dec Deep Discounts...
I dont know who would actually buy this car at this price right now...
remember - until Nov End - tesla was delivering cars that were booked back in march/april of 2022 well below current prices... in my view not lot of people bought the car at 66k..... May be performence version is diff but buyers for that are small %...
It's just matter of time Tesla would have to come down...

 

[ZenRockGarden]

There have been 5 trims of Model Y on the US price chart, it sounds like you think they'll go down to 2 trims only.

I'm saying there is room for 3 or 4 trims at the same time

* Performance
* LR AWD
* SR+ AWD
* SR RWD

Maybe a trim goes away but I'm saying one or two replace it.

Tesla has endlessly favored fewer models and options. Right now, there's 1 battery choice in the US market (and a few 4680 prototypes being sold on the side). There 2 interior color options. They do not want to make 5 different flavors of anything if they can avoid it.

I expect the 4680 to eventually roll out as a direct replacement for 2170 in the form of MYLR.

The MYP continues as a halo car, built on the same MYLR.

There is room for a MYSR - which will happen only when the US factories can make more MYLR than available demand, and will probably use the cheaper LFC chemistry as seen in standard range Teslas elsewhere.

That's it. 2 models for now, maybe 3 eventually.

 

[pdx_m3s]

Yet they pulled it off for years before the need to discount to appease a government hand out.

The market is completely different now. The last 18 months was a bubble that has popped in terms of car prices.

 

[DanCar]

Let's give it till end of Q1. No need to debate.

It is interesting to hear people's thoughts on this.

 

[acpd]

past is past.. just because Tesla was able pull off before doesn't mean they could for eternity.
lot of things have changed... including tesla ability to manufacture more and more cars like 50% more... coupled with high prices, hign interest rates, economy, etc... tesla will have to adjust... and they did as indicated by Dec Deep Discounts...
I dont know who would actually buy this car at this price right now...
remember - until Nov End - tesla was delivering cars that were booked back in march/april of 2022 well below current prices... in my view not lot of people bought the car at 66k..... May be performence version is diff but buyers for that are small %...
It's just matter of time Tesla would have to come down...

Couldn't have said any better. Absolutely correct on every point. MY inventory is all time high already, even higher than What they had in December 2022.

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