I don't even think that they would bother opening the Austin plant unless it was ready to produce the 4680 cars. It has already been confirmed that 4680s are rolling around in demo form, so I see no reason to believe that they would revert to 2170s.Why the down thumbs guys? It’s a known fact Tesla exaggerates timelinesThere is nothing to suggest Austin wouldn’t start with 2170’s until both factories can produce 4680’s and they aren’t offering 2 products at the same time. I’d love to believe Tesla commentary but quarterly delays occur more often than not. Not saying they won’t come, just a matter of when.
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Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production
- Thread starter Ron J.
- Start date
Destiny1701
22’ M3LR ‘DrkNite’/ 22’ MYP BliueRocket
Sincerely hope your right ! my MYP order is March 12-26th but I may have to hold it a bit longer until confirmed
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
that part is not hard, they already fill between the cells with a thermal-conductive "glue". There will just be more glue.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Thank youvery well explained.
Very smart move to control future cost/profit; Longer range at a higher price, or perhaps build that $28K economy car.
One question; I heard that Panasonic Japan will also be selling 4680’s to other manufacturers; Or do they have a lone commitment/contract with Tesla?
Right now, the "word" is that the commitment is exclusive to Tesla. Tesla has openly told all battery manufacturers that they will literally buy every single battery cell that any of them will sell to them. Long term, they remain battery constrained, and this is by far the limiting factor for not just Tesla automotive, but also for Tesla Energy, which Elon says long-term he believes is a bigger market than even auto.
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Mrbrock
Active Member
Please show me the quote where he says they are only producing 4680 cars in Austin...
This isn't it:
“Throughout 2021, we focused on growing cell supply alongside our in-house 4680 effort to provide us flexibility and insurance as we attempt to grow as fast as possible. As we sit today, sales from suppliers actually sort of exceeds our other factory-limiting constraints that you mentioned, Elon, in 2022. Or to say differently, 4680 cells are not a constraint to our 2022 volume plans, based on the information we have. We are making meaningful progress of the ramp curve in Kato. We’re building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before. And we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter. Our focus on the cell, the pack, and the vehicles here is driving yield quality and cost to ensure we’re ready for larger volumes this year as we ramp and next year,” Baglino said.
All it says if you take it literally and not read into it or speculate is that they have 4680 and they are building 4680 cars in Austin. There is no quote anywhere at any time that says they are NOT using 2170 packs at Austin, they already stated they would use them as a contingency plan. They have been quite forthcoming with how many 4680 cells they have to build cars with. 1 million as of January. 1200 cars. Either they are planning a really slow ramp with very limited deliveries, or they are using 2170 packs to help ramp production until 4680 production can ramp the same. That million cells is 6+ months of battery output. 200 cars per month.
Only if they want to make money. They have a lot invested in the plant and to sit around and wait for 4680 production to ramp while they could be building 2170 based cars and making money makes 0 sense. With all the SR M3 switching to LFP, they have excess 2170 cells. Where are they using those if Austin is only 4680? 35gWh / 82 kWh = 427,000 packs. They aren't producing that many LR/P M3/MY at Fremont.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
No NO NO!
1) that 1 mil cells is from Kato Rd from the early part of the S-curve ramp (the slow part), and furthermore Kato Rd is a test facility that is in the process of ramping, it will probably make 1mil in the past month, and then accelerate that
2) Austin battery lines are in testing phase right now, and will accelerate that number of available cells
3) the 2170 pack is NOT a "drop-in" replacement for the 4680 structural pack. People seem to not grasp this, but the front and rear casts for the Model Y in TX are designed exclusively for a structural battery pack. Building a 2170 structural battery pack would make the car a "3rd variant". It WOULD NOT be like Fremont Y's, and not like the 4680 Y that is in the EPA hands for validation. What does that mean? It means we would need an ADDITIONAL validation of another kind of car.
4) An finally, Tesla does NOT have an "excess" of ANY kind of cells, 2170 or otherwise. Why the @#$% do you think Tesla Energy products are so delayed (go look at wait times for Powerwalls and Powerpacks - they exclusively use 2170 cells)?
Mrbrock
Active Member
I’ll give you #4, I didn’t account for non auto products.
As far as #3 goes, you are suggesting the rear casts used in Fremont will have to be redesigned for the 4680 packs? How come we only see front casts stacking up? If what you say is true, what is the point of making front casts when there’s no back cast to pair them with? Waste of time and material if they have to retool the rear casts. The front and rear casts don’t include the center of the car. It will be bonded to the two casts. if It was as hard as you say it is to switch between the two, why would Tesla say they have a backup plan for 2170 in Austin? Why have a plan for 2170 if according to you they won’t operate Austin without 4680?
If Tesla has ramped Kato from a million cells in 6+ months to a million in a month that would be unheard of. And would have been announced on Twitter just like the first million.
Be realistic. I’m all for hoping Austin ramps quickly and they get 4680 under control and can ramp quickly but there reports for January of 7000 cells per day output at Kato. That’s nowhere close to 1 million per month.
I believe there has been a lot of conflicting and false info put out about 4680 production at Kato Rd. and 4680 availability in MYs in general.
1. Elon said sume time ago that although Kato road is a pilot plant, but it is in fact something like the 5th largest battery factory in the world.
2. Kato Rd. started 4680 production about 6 months ago and significantly ramp up production in late 2021.
3. The statement about 1 million 4680 cell at Kato Rd. was not an official statement from Tesla and even if corrent it was not clear what this number was referring to. It could have meant that there were 1M 4680 cells on hand at that moment in time ready to be put into battery packs or perhaps 1M cells have been produced that month. I did not read the original statement to mean that only 1M total cells had been produced at Kato Rd. since the beginning of 4680 production. We don't know how many 4680 battery packs were already shipped to Austin during 2021.
4. We do know that it was said by at least two Tesla Execs. during the Jan. 26 earnings call that there are enough 4680 cells available for Austin MYs production. This would imply there will an adequate supply of 4680 battery packs coming from Kata Rd. production such that MYs from Austin will be equippied with only 4680 Kato Rd. battery packs until Austin's own battery production gets cranked up and also supplies from 3rd parties (e.g., Panasonic) come on line later this year.
5. There has been no official word from Tesla on plans for Fremont to produce V2.0 MYs, that include the 4680 battery packs. Who knows, that could also start happening soon or it could still be some months away.
1. Elon said sume time ago that although Kato road is a pilot plant, but it is in fact something like the 5th largest battery factory in the world.
2. Kato Rd. started 4680 production about 6 months ago and significantly ramp up production in late 2021.
3. The statement about 1 million 4680 cell at Kato Rd. was not an official statement from Tesla and even if corrent it was not clear what this number was referring to. It could have meant that there were 1M 4680 cells on hand at that moment in time ready to be put into battery packs or perhaps 1M cells have been produced that month. I did not read the original statement to mean that only 1M total cells had been produced at Kato Rd. since the beginning of 4680 production. We don't know how many 4680 battery packs were already shipped to Austin during 2021.
4. We do know that it was said by at least two Tesla Execs. during the Jan. 26 earnings call that there are enough 4680 cells available for Austin MYs production. This would imply there will an adequate supply of 4680 battery packs coming from Kata Rd. production such that MYs from Austin will be equippied with only 4680 Kato Rd. battery packs until Austin's own battery production gets cranked up and also supplies from 3rd parties (e.g., Panasonic) come on line later this year.
5. There has been no official word from Tesla on plans for Fremont to produce V2.0 MYs, that include the 4680 battery packs. Who knows, that could also start happening soon or it could still be some months away.
Sorry if that came across a bit too direct. I should have asked, so I will. Is that May 2022 or May 2023? Because, if it's May 2023, then the answer is maybe versus a hard no.
pepperoni
Member
I would have said Maybe. We don’t know what will be built in Fremont in May yet.
The official statement said “Celebrating our one millionth 4680 cell in January” and since it came well into February that can be interpreted at least two ways. “Here’s something we celebrated last month, achieving 1 million total...” or “Here we are celebrating hitting the milestone of being able to produce one million batteries in a month."
More imprecise language from Tesla on 4680s, probably intentionally, just like that utter spin at battery day that left people thinking MY was headed for 550 miles of range and 2.3 second 0-60.
They need to reinstate a communications department. Elon’s twitter feed about his personal ssues with Wall Street regulators and rockets to Mars doesn’t quite cut it for one of the most valuable automakers in the world.
Nothing they have said in all their mumbling precludes the use of a structural pack with the smaller batteries in it at Austin.
What I do know is their claims about being able to deal with the chip shortage by being clever with repurposing chips from Cracker Jack prize toys or whatever is overhyped, and by a lot. My EDD just got bumped again. I started as potentially getting delivery as early as February. Then March. Then May. Now I’m looking at June.
All this hand wringing around 4680s; I’ve got a June/July window and if they offer me delivery EOQ this month here in California, I’ll grab that 2170 equipped Y and drive it happily. If anything, I’d be nervous if I did get one of the first few thousand 4680 packs.
MY EDD has also jumped around since I completed my MY LR order in Sept. A few days ago it bumped fo June 5 - July 3. If it actually turns out I get a V2.0 MY then I'm willing to wait to June. On the subject of 4680 cells, I feel the best info we have from Tesla is MYs from Austin will be equipped with 4680 structural battery packs and I believe that means all MYs from Austin will be so equipped. Fremont remains an open question for which Tesla has not yet spoken about.
Your take is the definitely most rational interpretation... their language is maddeningly imprecise though.
Wait... your were a September order and you’re looking at June-July now? That’s just insane. Sorry about that.
Tesla doesn't owe anyone anything as far as communications. Infact I think they are better off not saying anything at all . Legacy car companies make announcements because it does not impact any of their inventory. They announce a change that will go into the next model year a few months before they launch it , they generally don't make changes during the year unless its for safety. Tesla makes changes whenever they can but this also causes FOMO. If they annunced that from date XXX the car would have YYY it causes all sorts of problems. Its best for them to make the change and announce it after its done.
All of the Rumors are being put out by youtubers and speculators and Tesla should never respond to this or they will always be responding to it. The car specs are on the web page. Everyone here will get what they ordered (eventually) and some will get the structural batteries from austin and other upgrades not posted.
Didn’t say they owe anyone anything re: communications on stuff like one million batteries. They are a corporation not some sort of emoting entity.
What WOULD be wise as a corporation selling products to humans and not delivering them very quickly is to have a proper means of communicating to its customers. Even if that means a totally minimalist approach, not commenting on things like this 4680 fervor, and seldom releasing anything. But.. control that information better. DON’T release confusing stuff at all, and when you DO release information, at a time, place and on subjects of your choosing, make it clear and concise. Why put out “one million blah bah blah” incoherently? It makes no sense at all.
They absolutely do need better comms to folks on order about basic things like timing. 95 percent of the people on the forum would agree. They DO owe people with orders a bare minimum of information.
And if they want to not feed the bear that it the hype machine on Youtube, twitter etc? A professional communications staff could help counsel them on reducing their own hype numbers, spin, and wildly fanciful timelines, which feed that bear quite a lot.
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