MXLRplus
Active Member
Oil prices dropped nearly 50% at the start of the 2009 pandemic and jump in the Dow. It's not as different as it might appear.
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Model Y Launch/CoronaVirus/Likely Recession
- Thread starter zedtava
- Start date
Oil prices dropped nearly 50% at the start of the 2009 pandemic and jump in the Dow. It's not as different as it might appear.
When I ordered my Y in January I bought some Tesla stock at $300 -- 2 weeks later it went up to $900 a share pre-COVID. I'm using this as an opportunity to buy up more Tesla stock because I see no reason to think that it won't recover to that level, or higher, once this panic is over! Not to belittle people's worries about this, but I'm a doctor and dealing with people dying of the flu all the time, so the current situation is not much different as of yet (so far 1 death from COVID at my hospital, and several deaths from the flu. . .) When I decided to buy the car I just put the cash aside somewhere safe, and because I'm not a smart enough stock investor I never count on my stock market portfolio to fund anything in the short term!. . . agree with everyone who has said sit tight.
Now Tesla let's get those white interiors in production!!!
Now Tesla let's get those white interiors in production!!!
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
The 2009 flu had a CFR of <0.1%. COVID-19 is up to ~100x more lethal so there's far more effort being placed on minimizing the spread.
Hhhhhhmmm, gambled may be a strong word. I have a portfolio that includes fixed and equity (probably a lot like your portfolio). As of the beginning of the year, we had some extra money that we could "afford" to get a nicer car for my wife. That has changed because of a severe and unprecedented situation. If I had all of my money in "fixed" returns, I would never retire and probably wouldn't get anything nicer because that money doesn't work over the long run. If anything, our overall investments are probably very conservative compared to the normal family.
Please let me know the next time there is going to be a major dip and I will move my money ahead of time
Are we going to get a new car for her still? Yes. Maybe we wait a bit longer now though. Will it be a new Tesla? Probably not. I simply don't want to take on those interest payments. Down the road we will get it. I just hope Tesla can absorb this mess and we pull out of this nosedive. The panic is nuts atm.
I only meant that you were gambling with the money you needed to buy the Y with. You could have moved that money into a fixed account as soon as you felt you had enough for the purchase. My 401K is in both fixed and equities, like yours. I don't touch that money and won't until it is needed in retirement. The money I'm buying a Model 3 today with is in my savings account, earning little if any interest from a total loss settlement and using money from a trade in vehicle. We also have a Y on order that should be delivered in a couple of months which will be partially financed (hope the rates stay low or go even lower).
Aarons12
Enjoying my Pearl White LR AWD with inductions
times like this i'm glad i have about 1/3 equities, 1/3 commercial real estate, and 1/3 recession resistant business. i'm concerned because i think there are a lot of businesses that are marginal and might be badly affected, and of course i'm concerned about people's health. but i'm still getting my tesla.
Hhhhhhmmm, gambled may be a strong word. I have a portfolio that includes fixed and equity (probably a lot like your portfolio). As of the beginning of the year, we had some extra money that we could "afford" to get a nicer car for my wife. That has changed because of a severe and unprecedented situation. If I had all of my money in "fixed" returns, I would never retire and probably wouldn't get anything nicer because that money doesn't work over the long run. If anything, our overall investments are probably very conservative compared to the normal family.
Please let me know the next time there is going to be a major dip and I will move my money ahead of time
Are we going to get a new car for her still? Yes. Maybe we wait a bit longer now though. Will it be a new Tesla? Probably not. I simply don't want to take on those interest payments. Down the road we will get it. I just hope Tesla can absorb this mess and we pull out of this nosedive. The panic is nuts atm.
Why don’t you just wait till you can get a tesla.... I have a hat time imagining myself buying anything but a Tesla ever again at this point
Don’t you wish you would have kept more cash? I kind of do... I only got 50k cash that is available for investment.. now seems like a good time.
Also, market wasn’t at the top of its cycle anyways...
Aarons12
Enjoying my Pearl White LR AWD with inductions
MXLRplus mentioned dividends though, and that is still legit. Years ago I did quite a bit of historical analysis of dividend payouts long term and especially during downturns, and they don't drop near as much as the actual principal value of the stock underlying.
I believe the 2009 dividend payout on the S&P only dropped 20% at worst. and I don't have the numbers in front of me but I want to say even during the great depression the payouts only dropped 40%.
Sure, lots of companies went belly up or hurt really badly during the recent mortgage crisis, but a lot of companies kept on truckin and paying out their dividends (I want to say microsoft even increased their payouts during the year following the crisis but I could be remembering wrong). So I think the premise of dividends helping offset loan interest is still a valid take on staying invested + taking a loan out. However, of course there are always other concerns like job security in a downturn vs maintaining debt.
Its never exactly clear when the bottom is reached. I'm sure people that work in teh industry have indicators (like the VIX or volume or something), but not so sure about generic retail investors.
I have always used options to position myself during downturns, but they appear to be really expensive right now (more than I would spend, anyway). I wasn't actively trading during the mortgage crisis so .. not sure if derivatives will get cheaper closer to "the bottom" or not.
feigen66
Member
Trading options are only great when you are confident an event would occur in certain time horizon while the premium was still cheap.
I bought a few put options when it was cheap (<$1 per contract in late Dec) and now it went up like crazy. IMHO, the current downturn is driven by the lack of information in US.
CDC does not put daily update of tested / positive cases so that general public doesn't have the clear picture of the scope. When you don't have a clear picture, you live in imaginary fear because you cannot make the best decisions from the real data. The market doesn't like imaginary fear.
I bought a few put options when it was cheap (<$1 per contract in late Dec) and now it went up like crazy. IMHO, the current downturn is driven by the lack of information in US.
CDC does not put daily update of tested / positive cases so that general public doesn't have the clear picture of the scope. When you don't have a clear picture, you live in imaginary fear because you cannot make the best decisions from the real data. The market doesn't like imaginary fear.
As an alternate perspective: I don't trade them (which IMO is why options have a reputation for being risky), I use them to take advantage of price on the underlying. My intent is to assume ownership of the underlying, not just make money on the derivative. In this case I don't need anything to happen before the contract expires, the time horizon isn't significant because I am comfortable with the price I am paying through the option (seems like this is the original intent of options, not just an extremely leveraged trading vehicle).
This is just how I handle the "I don't have cash right now" during downturns. I can still buy what I want, I am simply buying time to get the cash together to make the move. Margin would be another way to get this done, but I can't use margin in some of my accounts, and options give me a "floor" on losses that is also worth the expense.
Wow... what an epic decline, though. I just recently was able to celebrate a new milestone on my net worth, and now that has all been clobbered away dramatically.
Ah well. Outside of swing trading a few things, all I can do is gawk silently at the growing mushroom cloud. Salud!
Ah well. Outside of swing trading a few things, all I can do is gawk silently at the growing mushroom cloud. Salud!
rxlawdude
Active Member
Instead of calling it a "payroll tax cut" call it, "taking money from Social Security". That's what it is. Doesn't sound that great now does it?
feigen66
Member
Maybe the weakness of Tesla now becomes the strength since you rarely meet Tesla people.
Not at all. You can tell Trump is getting held back, otherwise he'd just get the money back that the economy/stock market is losing by increasing the the tariffs on China which is the start of all this virus trouble anyway.
