Yep, I dug into the data and tried to mark what color and wheel corresponds with each 100 VINs from 5k - 10k. I should have tried to average the VIN assignment date per VIN batch as well, but didn't. The pattern is roughly: black, midnight silver, silver, red, blue, white in one set of wheels. They don't produce both sets of wheels in the same paint runs.
There are a few wonky spots where the pattern may have deviated a bit.
There are a few sets of gaps that have unreported vins: 75xx - 77xx, 83xx -87xx, 90xx - 93xx. Perhaps there is an explanation for these gaps, perhaps cars with these VINs were produced with a bad part and they are awaiting a swap out? Who knows...
Based on the color patterns, those will probably be:
75xx: white/ aero
76xx: white/aero or midnight silver/sport
83XX - 87XX: Black/Midnight Silver w/ Aero
90XX - 92XX: Blue w/ Aero
We have VINs in the 87xx - 89xx range:
87XX: Silver/Aero
88XX: Red/Aero
82xx: Midnight silver/Aero
The pattern gets a bit funky in spots, but 90xx - 93xx should be silver, red, blue, white with Aero.
The below is confirmed by VINs:
93xx: black/ sport
94xx: midnight silver/sport
95xx: midnight silver/sport
96xx: silver /sport
96xx: red / sport
97xx: red / sport
98xx: red / sport
99xx: blue/ sport
White with sport wheels should be the next batch registered after the 99xx blue/sport batch.
I am sitting on a 2/15 configuration of white with aero wheels and dug into the data to try to estimate when I might get a VIN. Rather Tesla is sitting on some white/aero VINs in the 75xx -76xx range or I will have to wait for them to restart the pattern with aero wheels as they are almost done with the pattern of paint colors with sport wheels.
White happens to be at the end of the pattern. Good news is the pattern usually spans less than 1k VINs, so unless cars produced per week is abysmally low, I'd think that will be produced sometime next week? Just gotta hope my 2/15 order puts me in the next run of white/aero.
Other thing to consider is just because this is the VIN order, it doesn't mean they are necessarily produced in that order. Maybe they were out of white paint at one point and skipped white VINs for a while... ok, I've written too much. I'm gonna end this here.
There are a few wonky spots where the pattern may have deviated a bit.
There are a few sets of gaps that have unreported vins: 75xx - 77xx, 83xx -87xx, 90xx - 93xx. Perhaps there is an explanation for these gaps, perhaps cars with these VINs were produced with a bad part and they are awaiting a swap out? Who knows...
Based on the color patterns, those will probably be:
75xx: white/ aero
76xx: white/aero or midnight silver/sport
83XX - 87XX: Black/Midnight Silver w/ Aero
90XX - 92XX: Blue w/ Aero
We have VINs in the 87xx - 89xx range:
87XX: Silver/Aero
88XX: Red/Aero
82xx: Midnight silver/Aero
The pattern gets a bit funky in spots, but 90xx - 93xx should be silver, red, blue, white with Aero.
The below is confirmed by VINs:
93xx: black/ sport
94xx: midnight silver/sport
95xx: midnight silver/sport
96xx: silver /sport
96xx: red / sport
97xx: red / sport
98xx: red / sport
99xx: blue/ sport
White with sport wheels should be the next batch registered after the 99xx blue/sport batch.
I am sitting on a 2/15 configuration of white with aero wheels and dug into the data to try to estimate when I might get a VIN. Rather Tesla is sitting on some white/aero VINs in the 75xx -76xx range or I will have to wait for them to restart the pattern with aero wheels as they are almost done with the pattern of paint colors with sport wheels.
White happens to be at the end of the pattern. Good news is the pattern usually spans less than 1k VINs, so unless cars produced per week is abysmally low, I'd think that will be produced sometime next week? Just gotta hope my 2/15 order puts me in the next run of white/aero.
Other thing to consider is just because this is the VIN order, it doesn't mean they are necessarily produced in that order. Maybe they were out of white paint at one point and skipped white VINs for a while... ok, I've written too much. I'm gonna end this here.
User sid0116 updated his/her entry on the spreadsheet noting a VIN date of 3/9 (today), VIN 9923. Deep Blue Metallic, Sport Wheels, NJ delivery.
Highest VIN I've seen. Almost to 10,000! Looks like VINs 9300-9999 are all 19-inch wheels. There was a run of aeros around 8700-8900, but there are quite a few VIN gaps sub-9000 that I expect to see filled in here in the next week or so. We'll also likely see our first 10000+ early next week.
Progress! Hoping the prevailing theory that aeros and West Coast deliveries are coming.
Configured 2/22
Black/Aero/FSD
Los Angeles
No VIN yet