POLL: When will "Quantum Leap" FSD be released to the HW3 fleet?

[boonedocks]

I've been training, coaching, encouraging my wife the entire time. Score is 98. Congrats @boonedocks for getting it right.

Having been a diehard Tesla Fanboy since 2015 - 3 Model S’ including the latest Refresh and a 2017 X w/upgraded MCU / FSD / HW3 I am still skeptically hopeful that we get anything resembling level 3 in 2022.

Still a fanboy just letdown too many times by Elon and his tweets to be any more optimistic than that

 

[Daniel in SD]

How long before we see all the "I was wrong" posts from people who claimed it was years away or will never happen, or would never happen before years end?

Everyone except @boonedocks was wrong.
Robotaxis by the end of this year?

 

[Padelford]

There’s no justification for thinking a “quantum leap” in FSD performance is imminent based on the progress history to date. It’s been a series of small but significant improvements followed by performance steps backwards. Plus, Elon has been stealing FSD staff for Twitter. I don’t believe FSD will hit Level 4 this year.

 

[JulienW]

There’s no justification for thinking a “quantum leap” in FSD performance is imminent based on the progress history to date. It’s been a series of small but significant improvements followed by performance steps backwards. Plus, Elon has been stealing FSD staff for Twitter. I don’t believe FSD will hit Level 4 this year.

Actually it is having literal quantum length leaps. That is about twice the width of your Li avatar. I think we will be lucky to get L3 in a year or 2 but don't think our cars can or will ever get L4. I'll be delighted with L3.

 

[Dewg]

Everyone except @boonedocks was wrong.
Robotaxis by the end of this year?

That was odd - you were replying to my post in a different thread about Advanced Driver Assist coming to MCU1 cars.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Everyone except @boonedocks was wrong.
Robotaxis by the end of this year?

Technically release of the quantum leap is happening in 2023 (assuming release to the HW3 fleet means release to everyone with HW3).

Going to be interesting to see how the accountants see it. Definitely was not rolled out to everyone in 2022! Was it available to everyone with HW3 (and FSD purchase) in 2022? It does seem so. But not actually released.

In the end I think we have to base this on how Tesla recognizes the deferred revenue in Q4 earnings. My guess is they will not recognize the near 100% (of HW3 vehicles) they should be entitled to for releasing this revolutionary quantum leap driver assist, because they did not make that release to all in Q4. If I were an accountant I certainly would not sign off on a 100% release. Would just go with what actually happened and continue to just count vehicles with the requisite software. (If you can count the vehicles before they get the software, why not just count them as soon as the software is installed on some cars?)

Notably there is no requirement that the quantum leap be useful for it to be booked as revenue (I think this was largely expected though).

There is also the issue of how much revenue to partition smart park feature which I’m not addressing here. Have no idea whether technically they would say they are feature complete. Website still says Autosteer on City Streets is coming soon so not sure what to make of that. Presumably when FSD is available on factory software that will go away.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Technically release of the quantum leap is happening in 2023 (assuming release to the HW3 fleet means release to everyone with HW3).

Going to be interesting to see how the accountants see it. Definitely was not rolled out to everyone in 2022! Was it available to everyone with HW3 (and FSD purchase) in 2022? It does seem so. But not actually released.

In the end I think we have to base this on how Tesla recognizes the deferred revenue in Q4 earnings. My guess is they will not recognize the near 100% (of HW3 vehicles) they should be entitled to for releasing this revolutionary quantum leap driver assist, because they did not make that release to all in Q4. If I were an accountant I certainly would not sign off on a 100% release. Would just go with what actually happened and continue to just count vehicles with the requisite software. (If you can count the vehicles before they get the software, why not just count them as soon as the software is installed on some cars?)

Notably there is no requirement that the quantum leap be useful for it to be booked as revenue (I think this was largely expected though).

There is also the issue of how much revenue to partition smart park feature which I’m not addressing here. Have no idea whether technically they would say they are feature complete. Website still says Autosteer on City Streets is coming soon so not sure what to make of that. Presumably when FSD is available on factory software that will go away.

Yeah. It’s a close call. I like the idea of deferring to the audited financials.
I think reverse summon was only promised to FSD V1 purchasers.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I like the idea of deferring to the audited financials.

Issue is with all the vehicles with unsupported hardware and the potential issue of Tesla not saying FSD is complete (though that may be stated, so may not be an point of confusion), it won’t be 100% so we’ll have to interpret.

I guess if it is over ~90% recognized then they just are claiming it was delivered to everyone with HW3 in Q4. If 70-80% or lower, certainly not.

We’ll have to see the numbers then figure it out I guess.

I guess a price increase should be coming soon!

 

[legendsk]

Got 2022.44.30.5 (whatever that is) last night. Went for a test drive. It's only a little bit worse than it was. USB music doesn't work right any more, I'll miss that. Phantom braking noticeably worse. Tried to run a red light at 55 mph. I got it stopped, but got a $13 ding on my insurance for hard braking. I continues to: as soon as the Nav lady announces "Turn XXXXX in 500 feet", it tries to jump into the farthest lane in the other direction, so it would then have to turn across lanes of traffic to do what she asked. NRFPT

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Got 2022.44.30.5 (whatever that is) last night. Went for a test drive. It's only a little bit worse than it was. USB music doesn't work right any more, I'll miss that. Phantom braking noticeably worse. Tried to run a red light at 55 mph. I got it stopped, but got a $13 ding on my insurance for hard braking. I continues to: as soon as the Nav lady announces "Turn XXXXX in 500 feet", it tries to jump into the farthest lane in the other direction, so it would then have to turn across lanes of traffic to do what she asked. NRFPT

My only complaints are the going, stopping, and steering. I don’t get all the lane selection complaints because you can always cancel or disengage on those. There is at least 50 feet of warning on that one; you just look a little silly to other drivers. But at least there is control over that and the physical effects, unlike the turning and the stopping (for the going, there is override). But for turning and stopping you’re stuck with reaction time. Steering way better than it was but still jittery at times.

Anyway it seems to be feature complete and the quantum leap FSD rolling to the HW3 fleet, for sure in 2023 at the latest.

 

[DanCar]

Are we still waiting for that quantum leap?