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PowerWall and "The Missing Piece..." Event
- Thread starter SabrToothSqrl
- Start date
If they would buy an electric bike company it should be Lightning Electric Motorcycle Fastest Electric MotorcycleLightning Motorcycles. A "little" bit better*
"Lightning Motorcycle has designed and produced a Sportbike sure to change the minds of anyone doubting electric motorcycle performance. The LS-218 is the fastest production motorcycle in the world - gas or electric."
Won Pike peaks 2013.
"Lightning Motorcycle has designed and produced a Sportbike sure to change the minds of anyone doubting electric motorcycle performance. The LS-218 is the fastest production motorcycle in the world - gas or electric."
Won Pike peaks 2013.
We will hold off on whether your nuts (your words not mine:smile
after the announcement! Is that fair?My feeling is that battery supply is no longer constrained for vehicle production (see up thread for reasons) and like many others that "it" will be related to home storage..but likely with a twist in a good sense.
Corollary 1: Production of vehicles might be able to be increased (substantially?) but likely won't be 'in the short run', so the 'excess' battery production rolls out to home storage.
Corollary 2: Why no sudden ramp up in vehicle production 'in the short run' is not supply constraints any more, but 'price' constraints until Gigafactory comes one line at speed, so production will be 'limited' to maximizing pricier versions of S and X including the P and D versions getting out faster, with built in slightly longer times for non P and D...until Gigafactory makes constraint no longer a valid means to maximize cash flow/re-investment in infrastructure and research...which will be eased back in favour of Model 3 high production/low margin/high usage of low cost batteries model, as the interim concentration will have robustly established the Supercharger/Destination Charger networks.
Corollary 3: The twist 'in a good sense' to home storage is that it will be optimized to buy and store when grid is cheap, replace grid when it is pricey, even sell to grid at best conditions for both grid health AND homeowner 'wealth', as well as the expected storage of PV panel output. Therefore, the wild pricing swings (remember Enron? California does...) diminish, and the 'payback' is even quicker than the nominal output of the PV would suggest. MUCH faster and MUCH more cost effective, so even bigger home installs than normal make for sound financial sense that is provable to lenders. A 'Nest-like' smart app solution that is greater than the sum of the mere parts due to Megadata. Since Tesla is Silicon Valley and not Detroit in outlook, I wouldn't expect anything less. A whole Wild Kingdom forest of interrelated things, and not just a better mousetrap car.
None of my thoughts are new at all. Many have said or speculated every one of my points. I just like putting it out as a coherent whole path from March 31/2015 to somewhere around July 1, 2018. Notice I didn't mention a pickup truck? That would be Detroit style of thinking: ie, pickup first, basic design and infrastructure to make it compelling later/never. The Tesla pickup will happen when the time is right for it, and that might be 'soon'.
Corollary 1: Production of vehicles might be able to be increased (substantially?) but likely won't be 'in the short run', so the 'excess' battery production rolls out to home storage.
Corollary 2: Why no sudden ramp up in vehicle production 'in the short run' is not supply constraints any more, but 'price' constraints until Gigafactory comes one line at speed, so production will be 'limited' to maximizing pricier versions of S and X including the P and D versions getting out faster, with built in slightly longer times for non P and D...until Gigafactory makes constraint no longer a valid means to maximize cash flow/re-investment in infrastructure and research...which will be eased back in favour of Model 3 high production/low margin/high usage of low cost batteries model, as the interim concentration will have robustly established the Supercharger/Destination Charger networks.
Corollary 3: The twist 'in a good sense' to home storage is that it will be optimized to buy and store when grid is cheap, replace grid when it is pricey, even sell to grid at best conditions for both grid health AND homeowner 'wealth', as well as the expected storage of PV panel output. Therefore, the wild pricing swings (remember Enron? California does...) diminish, and the 'payback' is even quicker than the nominal output of the PV would suggest. MUCH faster and MUCH more cost effective, so even bigger home installs than normal make for sound financial sense that is provable to lenders. A 'Nest-like' smart app solution that is greater than the sum of the mere parts due to Megadata. Since Tesla is Silicon Valley and not Detroit in outlook, I wouldn't expect anything less. A whole Wild Kingdom forest of interrelated things, and not just a better mousetrap car.
None of my thoughts are new at all. Many have said or speculated every one of my points. I just like putting it out as a coherent whole path from March 31/2015 to somewhere around July 1, 2018. Notice I didn't mention a pickup truck? That would be Detroit style of thinking: ie, pickup first, basic design and infrastructure to make it compelling later/never. The Tesla pickup will happen when the time is right for it, and that might be 'soon'.
If it is the start of a new product-line, I guess it could be say, both the snake and the personal super-charger...
One point about the personal super-charger, though, wouldn't such a product be detrimental to Tesla's battery availability and thus production constraints? Or would the demand for such be so low that it wouldn't matter? Or could it use some other battery supply that the Model S can't?
Edit: Sorry, just read Ohm Alone's post above putting more detail into the latter already.
SebastianR
Active Member
... and building on what others have said, such a home battery solution could - if placed in the right place - speed-up charging a la "homebased supercharger" - granted, not at the speed the commercial ones could do, but still faster than what's currently there and, that's important, working for all supercharger enabled cars.
So depending on the market environment, this solution could - with the right software - do a whole long list of things: "Demand shaping only", "shift power consumption to off-peak times", "buy & sell-back to grid", "black-out proof power supply" as well as "supercharge your car"
JOEV1
*****joe
Home Super Charger!!!
OK... it is not a car... but related.
Often I thought that such a DC-charger at home would make sense:
Let the sun fill the PV-Batteries during the day while we are at work and transfer the energy in the evening to our vehicles in SC- fashion (20 - 30 min)
This would allow us having a night out too... no need to stay home, because the car is tied to the grid all night for charging.
(if destination charging is not possible or SC are not near)
Needless to mention the other advantages of stored electricity for the home use (black-outs, power- and energy saving, V2G - balancing etc. etc.)
OK... it is not a car... but related.
Often I thought that such a DC-charger at home would make sense:
Let the sun fill the PV-Batteries during the day while we are at work and transfer the energy in the evening to our vehicles in SC- fashion (20 - 30 min)
This would allow us having a night out too... no need to stay home, because the car is tied to the grid all night for charging.
(if destination charging is not possible or SC are not near)
Needless to mention the other advantages of stored electricity for the home use (black-outs, power- and energy saving, V2G - balancing etc. etc.)
I cannot imagine, for the life of me, somebody paying what it would cost (probably >25K) just to charge faster at home. There is zero chance that that's what this is.
I'm sure it's some sort of home energy storage system that's capable of incorporating inputs from multiple sources - solar, wind, grid, whatever else and then load balances it all so that whatever needs to be drawn from the grid is drawn on a schedule that provides the lowest possible rate.
I really wonder if there's that much demand for it. I suppose it makes sense wherever solar is popular. But I can't understand how it would make economic sense at whatever this thing is going to cost.
3s-a-charm
Active Member
Any thoughts on what this link has to say about the new product...? https://www.facebook.com/mytesla.be
Says the new Tesla product will not have wheels but has this photo:
Looked like an electric motorcycle but if it doesn't have wheels... maybe an electric snowmobile?
Says the new Tesla product will not have wheels but has this photo:
Looked like an electric motorcycle but if it doesn't have wheels... maybe an electric snowmobile?
Assuming that we're looking at stationary storage, Tesla may be approaching this as a way to use battery cells that don't make the grade for cars: factory 'seconds' and cells pulled from damaged or aged Model S batteries. Instead of recycling battery cells, it simply sells them again in a less-demanding application. Pure margin.
It would be awfully nice if they could use this as an outlet for the used 85kWh power packs that they would be be getting back in trade when they offer the new 120kWh upgrade pack. Dreaming again, I know.
April 30th Event Discussion and Prediction Thread
Didn't see one posted - so I figure I'd be the first one to start
My Predictions:
Very Certain
- Tesla Home Battery Energy Storage System
Somewhat Certain
- Tesla P85D firmware update announcement to increase acceleration to 60 in 2.8s (Insane+), which somewhat leads to...
- New battery pack for Tesla Model S (and X) of 110kWh
Not Certain
- Announcement of Apple as an investor in the company for continued Gigafactory growth to facilitate Battery Storage business (and Apple gets systems for free, yay!)
- Model X release candidate in full display for everyone to see
Unicorn Status
- Model 3 reveal
Didn't see one posted - so I figure I'd be the first one to start
My Predictions:
Very Certain
- Tesla Home Battery Energy Storage System
Somewhat Certain
- Tesla P85D firmware update announcement to increase acceleration to 60 in 2.8s (Insane+), which somewhat leads to...
- New battery pack for Tesla Model S (and X) of 110kWh
Not Certain
- Announcement of Apple as an investor in the company for continued Gigafactory growth to facilitate Battery Storage business (and Apple gets systems for free, yay!)
- Model X release candidate in full display for everyone to see
Unicorn Status
- Model 3 reveal
I don't see this as a remote chance. There will be no major upgrades to the Model S announced until the end of the year. So the battery pack will remain at 85kWh.
hockeythug
Active Member
Didn't Solar City and them had to stop their initial pilot program in California because the power companies were intentionally delaying hooking them up or outright refusing to?
I'm not sure if it was outright refusal, but possibly delays that amounted to the same thing. Yeah, I'm *really* curious how they are going to a) market this given the huge difference in pricing models between utilities in the US b) get past the delays, permitting, and roadblocks the utilities can place before them.
Didn't see one posted - so I figure I'd be the first one to start
My Predictions:
Very Certain
- Tesla Home Battery Energy Storage System
Yep.
But change everything below to 'Unicorn'. Clearly you haven't been following Tesla long enough.. or if you have, you haven't learned your lesson.
Yep.
But change everything below to 'Unicorn'. Clearly you haven't been following Tesla long enough.. or if you have, you haven't learned your lesson.
Been an investor since 2013 - but I'm optimistic by nature
Not happening until at least late 2015, probably later.
There was another one stating no major update for a year, but I can't find it.Deleted Musk tweet said:
Not a chance.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Model W announced! Fantastic effort by Mr Musk, seems we all fell for it, hook line and sinker!
Perhaps you misunderstand? The Apr 30 announcement is real. This April Fool's announcement is unrelated.
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