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President of GM taught us what it takes for EV to go mainstream
- Thread starter Lanzer
- Start date
The ASP of those two best-selling vehicles is nowhere close to the starting price, and likely is close to the ASP of a Model 3 which sits in the low to mid 40k range. So no, cost is no longer the primary barrier. Even lifestyle only impacts a segment of the population. It's ignorance, pure and simple. Things like "range anxiety" and "charging time" are both the results of ignorance. People just don't know any better.
I definitely agree on the fact that there are still hurdles for EV to become mainstream, and the facts mentioned are legitimate concerns.
The humor here is that these words came from GM. The company that crushed their compliance EV 20 years ago, and famously said that there is no demand for EV. It's as if a sub-prime mortgage investment firm wrote an article about how America should prevent a housing crisis. Not to mention the summary is pretty much Tesla's gameplan announced by Elon since inception of the company.
I think now days the simple equation of how many dollars per kilowatt can you build your batteries is the factor that matters most. Once you reach the right threshold, wide adoption will follow.
There are other factors which matters more than what was mentioned, one of which is charging speed. Those who live in apartments often do not have access to overnight charging, and the current 150 or 250kw/h charging speed might still be not good enough for the average consumer. That is also the biggest complaint from those who think that road trips aren't feasible because waiting for long charging times would ruin a road trip. It's something we all know isn't a real concern, but for those who haven't adopted, it's often touted as one. Looking forward to newer technologies that will allow for even faster charging, then there will be no reason for anyone to say no.
Likely?
Maybe?
Could be?
Site the facts and data points, and then we can all draw conclusions from data.
Assuming we are all reasonable people, we will even arrive at the same conclusions!
You seem to be propping up your desired result with a hope that data, somewhere, would support it.
Here is my data on average sales prices (ASP):
Camry: $26,160
Model 3: $50,528
Source: Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
B*llshit!
Yours, I suppose?
The average price for a sedan in the US is already higher than the price of the Model 3 base model (and in many places tax incentives bring the higher trim levels down below the average sedan selling price). The majority of people don’t actually need 300 miles of range. Charging infrastructure is a valid concern, but only for people who can’t charge at home or work and people driving long distances.
The vast majority of home owners in the market for a sedan could purchase an EV today (assuming manufacturers actually made enough).
There’s two main things preventing EVs from becoming mainstream: lack of consumer choice and public misinformation. Fix the second and any manufacturer that wants to remain in business will be forced to confront the first.
The vast majority of home owners in the market for a sedan could purchase an EV today (assuming manufacturers actually made enough).
There’s two main things preventing EVs from becoming mainstream: lack of consumer choice and public misinformation. Fix the second and any manufacturer that wants to remain in business will be forced to confront the first.
If you are on a tight schedule on any particular day where you have to travel over 300 miles(non-road trip) and dont have 30 min. to SC then you have issues. I’ve run into that situation several times where I had to take the ICE because taking the Tesla would be an inconvenience.
TomB985
Member
I’m in a similar situation this weekend. Thinking about a road trip to visit my brother for Thanksgiving in Madison, but concerned about supercharger availability on one of the busiest travel days of the year.
Regarding price, I think most people here including myself have determined the total cost of ownership math makes enough sense to justify the relatively high purchase price of a Tesla, particularly the Model 3. I've always been an enthusiast and spent a disproportionate amount of money on cars than most people, but with the Tesla it legitimately makes sense to me as a way to actually save money while driving one of the best cars ever made.
However, I've had a couple of illuminating conversations at work recently that make me appreciate better how "normal" people look at the cost of the car. I've let so many people drive my Model 3 at work I've lost count, but I've given the full test drive and rundown to well over 20 people in the last couple months. When the inevitable question comes up at the end "so how much did you pay for this?", I ecstatically say "only $49.9k!!" because I feel like that is a tremendous and nearly impossible to beat value. The response I have been getting lately is more like "Wow I would never ever spend that much on a car", even after I explain the reduced cost of ownership through fuel, maintenance and depreciation savings.
I also ask how people can put a price on things like safety which for me adds significant value, and unfortunately one of those guys has a poignant example of how it could have helped him. He had been driving a 12 year old Altima, and he was tboned in an intersection (hit and run too) last week. He said he pulled out of the intersection, looked over, saw headlights coming right at him, so he floored it to get out of the way. He fortunately avoided the collision right into his door, but it hit just behind him totaling the car and potentially injuring him - he's sore and needs to go get checked out. He has been talking to me about the Tesla and trying to decide if he should buy one for a year now, and I told him something along these lines this week after of course expressing sympathy and making sure he was ok. "The Tesla acceleration may have been able to escape the path of the car that hit you, but if it didn't, the active and passive safety features would have kept you safer than just about anything on the road...oh ya and that hit and run where you didn't even know what kind of car it was - the Tesla Cam would have video of the incident proving who was at fault and seeing what car it was and likely even who was driving." The only good news is the collision left the dude's license plate jammed into the Altima's wheel well, so even though the dude ran away they were able to track him down. Without that evidence, my coworker would have been completely screwed.
So while the up front cost of a Tesla appears to be higher to the general non enthusiast population, it really is an excellent total value proposition, particularly when coming from an ICE car with poor fuel economy and/or high maintenance requirements. I want us to be in the safest cars on the road, and from that angle you really can't do better than a Tesla. It doesn't hurt that it out accelerates almost every car on the road, and then can drive in 14" of unplowed snow (did it yesterday and was amazed) with a set of snows slapped on.
However, I've had a couple of illuminating conversations at work recently that make me appreciate better how "normal" people look at the cost of the car. I've let so many people drive my Model 3 at work I've lost count, but I've given the full test drive and rundown to well over 20 people in the last couple months. When the inevitable question comes up at the end "so how much did you pay for this?", I ecstatically say "only $49.9k!!" because I feel like that is a tremendous and nearly impossible to beat value. The response I have been getting lately is more like "Wow I would never ever spend that much on a car", even after I explain the reduced cost of ownership through fuel, maintenance and depreciation savings.
I also ask how people can put a price on things like safety which for me adds significant value, and unfortunately one of those guys has a poignant example of how it could have helped him. He had been driving a 12 year old Altima, and he was tboned in an intersection (hit and run too) last week. He said he pulled out of the intersection, looked over, saw headlights coming right at him, so he floored it to get out of the way. He fortunately avoided the collision right into his door, but it hit just behind him totaling the car and potentially injuring him - he's sore and needs to go get checked out. He has been talking to me about the Tesla and trying to decide if he should buy one for a year now, and I told him something along these lines this week after of course expressing sympathy and making sure he was ok. "The Tesla acceleration may have been able to escape the path of the car that hit you, but if it didn't, the active and passive safety features would have kept you safer than just about anything on the road...oh ya and that hit and run where you didn't even know what kind of car it was - the Tesla Cam would have video of the incident proving who was at fault and seeing what car it was and likely even who was driving." The only good news is the collision left the dude's license plate jammed into the Altima's wheel well, so even though the dude ran away they were able to track him down. Without that evidence, my coworker would have been completely screwed.
So while the up front cost of a Tesla appears to be higher to the general non enthusiast population, it really is an excellent total value proposition, particularly when coming from an ICE car with poor fuel economy and/or high maintenance requirements. I want us to be in the safest cars on the road, and from that angle you really can't do better than a Tesla. It doesn't hurt that it out accelerates almost every car on the road, and then can drive in 14" of unplowed snow (did it yesterday and was amazed) with a set of snows slapped on.
Wow. That got personal really fast for you. I hope you don’t interact with people that way in person.
Using the Bloomberg owner survey for your Model 3 ASP? Seriously? That's some real data science you're using. We don't know the ASP of the Model 3, but we do know it's been going down over the last year. Since the introduction of the SR/SR+, the possibility that it's anywhere close to $50k now is patently ridiculous. But I'll grant you mine is just as much conjecture as the one you cited.
The Camry is yours, as the data I found suggests it's about $28k. The F-150 definitely is not (and very noticeable that you excluded it). ASP on the F-150 for the 2019 was about $37k and the 2020 model has ticked up quite a bit to $57k. All citations from compiled data, not an owner survey. I'd point out that the average purchase price of a new vehicle in 2019 was about $38k according to KBB.
But whatever, you believe that cost is the #1 obstacle and that's fine. I don't think it's at all supported by the evidence.
SmartElectric
Active Member
+1 THIS ^^
My wife says this exactly, the Tesla has the immediate response and deft handling to get her out of trouble in a way a gas car cannot.
She will NEVER go back to a gas car. Example in the last week where she hit the accelerator and changed lanes to avoid someone, would not have been possible to shift into the lane on her left without EV responsive power train like a Tesla has, when you have less than a second to choose, it's nice to know in half a second you can do what you need to, not the 2 seconds or more a gas car takes with the transmission shift down, turbo spool up, etc.
I’ve been making longer drives in my model 3P over the last few weeks.
This time of year, I have to charge every 90-120 miles, which means I have to stop at every charging station.
Many of the stations were full/nearly so, and the stations were going slow. It took 14 hours to make an 8 hour drive in an ICE car.
I set my own schedule, so I can be flexible, and I figured I gain the time back by not filling with gas on a regular basis, but it really isn’t a good road trip car.
(If I didn’t bang my head getting into it, I did think about getting a LR S instead - ordered the tri motor truck)
This time of year, I have to charge every 90-120 miles, which means I have to stop at every charging station.
Many of the stations were full/nearly so, and the stations were going slow. It took 14 hours to make an 8 hour drive in an ICE car.
I set my own schedule, so I can be flexible, and I figured I gain the time back by not filling with gas on a regular basis, but it really isn’t a good road trip car.
(If I didn’t bang my head getting into it, I did think about getting a LR S instead - ordered the tri motor truck)
TomB985
Member
Yep, days like today an EV is kind of inconvenient.
At a charging stop on the way to Madison at the moment. Second one in a row with no open services because of the holiday. Just walked across a four-lane divided Highway to find a bathroom.
I love my car, but anyone that denies they can be an inconvenience is deluding themselves.
At a charging stop on the way to Madison at the moment. Second one in a row with no open services because of the holiday. Just walked across a four-lane divided Highway to find a bathroom.
I love my car, but anyone that denies they can be an inconvenience is deluding themselves.
All cars can be inconvenient at times. Personally I find it much more inconvenient to stop at a gas station once a week, regardless of how many there are or that there’s rarely a wait (unless you’re at Costco...). I’ll take the absolute convenience of charging at home 99% of time.
I don't agree with that. My biggest complaint with the Tesla is that I had to buy it from Tesla. As a car company they suck pretty big time. The car has lots of issues and trying to get it fixed is a pain. The last time it was in the shop they wanted to give me an Uber voucher and Uber won't even take me home as they don't operate in that area.
I like the way you qualify the charging concerns with not one, but two conditions. There are lots of places where it is not practical to charge. Charging for some who use the car on a routine basis at home works well, allowing them to never step foot in a stinky, ugly, messy gas station again. But for anyone who can't charge at home they will rue the day they bought an EV. Take it on a trip and plan to spend significant time (about an hour for every three-four hours driving) charging or longer if the charger spacing makes you stop more often.
While EVs will be the norm in 10 years or so, for now they are still an oddity and not as convenient for many as an ICE. The jury is still out on the longevity of the battery and motors. There was an article on a Tesla that reached 1,000,000 km. But it took two batteries and three motors. While that still sounds good, it's not any better than many ICE which typically run for 100's of thousands of miles. At $20,000 per battery, I expect that sucker to last for more than 20 years in normal use. The information available presently is mostly anecdotal. In other words, the jury is still out.
I don't recommend to anyone to buy a Tesla or any other EV for at least 5 years. Hopefully by then the dust will settle a bit.
Most people who can afford a tesla have the option for home charging.
And no, the jury is not out on batteries and motors. They also don't cost 20k. Take an extra couple hours on a long trip, but save thousands of dollars in fuel and maintenance a year and countless hours of time. That math is not difficult.
I always tell people that the only downside is long trips, but there are some benefits in long trips as well. People are bad at recognizing opportunity cost and forget about the hassles with gas vehicles because they are so used to them.
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People are bad at recognizing opportunity cost and forget about the hassles with gas vehicles because they are so used to them.
[/QUOTE]Plus don't forget all the health problems that come with gas stations. I was at a Shell station over the holiday weekend and it literally said that inhaling gas vapors has been shown to cause cancer. Not to mention the tens of thousands of premature deaths caused by gas and diesel emissions in the US alone.
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