Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves)

[Beavis]

I don't know what they're building right now, but reportedly they are going to do the Canadian Signatures this month.

They better be building mine right now. I mean, right, frickin' now.

 

[Doug_G]

They better be building mine right now. I mean, right, frickin' now.

The only thing that makes sense is that they're working on finishing the US Sigs right now.

 

[Grendal]

The only thing that makes sense is that they're working on finishing the US Sigs right now.

I'm sure Tesla wants to immediately go to the Canadian Sigs. From what I understand, it's bureaucratic paperwork that is holding up the process. What they wouldn't want to do is make the 200 CanSigs then have to sit on them for a couple weeks waiting for the bureaucracy to clear up.

Paperwork lined up, build, then deliver is what makes sense.

And the light must be at the end of the bureaucratic tunnel because of the posting by George B.

 

[timdorr]

My predicted Model S production plan

TheAustin posted this over in the delivery thread:

I spoke to my delivery specialist yesterday to find out what the current production schedule really is, and to see if I could get a handle on when I could realistically expect to see my car (P2009 85kW).

He said that the are still at the 200 cars/week level, and would need another couple of weeks to finish up the last of the Sigs. By that point, they hope to ramp up to 400 cars/week...There are no guarantees that they will be able to at that time...But that is their hope. However, once they do make the shift to 400 cars/week, THAT is when then will be able to give more accurate delivery estimates for the Production cars. At this point, he can estimate that my P2009 won't arrive until at least mid-to-end of January. My most recent estimate prior to that was late November-early December. Clearly I wasn't thrilled with this latest update (delay), but I'm trying to be Zen...It's been 2 1/2 years, what's another couple of months... :/

Also, I asked how realistic my 2009 number was, taking into account the reservation holders ahead of me that either a)Upgraded to a Sig, b)Switched to a Model X, c)Ordered a 40 or 60 kW battery car, or d)Dropped out all together. He said that those numbers are probably around a couple hundred or so...BUT, he also said that they will be making the Non-Sig Roadster owners/friends&family cars immediately prior to the general Production cars, and that there are a few hundred of those. So, as far as my P2009 is concerned, it's realistically still right around 2000 on the list from the time they finish with the Sigs and move on to the Production cars.

So, that's the update...I hope this enlightens any of you that have been wondering what's going on...And if you've heard anything contrary to what I was told yesterday, I'd love to hear about it.

OK, this is actually pretty helpful info.

So, it's been confirmed that a car is not assigned a VIN (or at least the VIN is not assigned to a customer) until the body-in-white comes out of paint and onto the assembly line. We just saw VIN 1010 assigned today, which means we're close to the end of the US Sigs (VINs go over 1000 because there are 1200 north american sigs being produced and CA sig sales didn't hit 200). They're at somewhere around 35-40 cars per day, so I'm guessing the final US Sig should be going on the line tomorrow, unless I have some gross misunderstanding of how the VIN sequencing works or they built *way* more non-customer cars than I thought.

So, after that comes CA Sigs, of which there are 200. That's another week. Then give it another week to finish production. That all lines up with what the specialist has said. Roughly 11/25 for finishing all Sig production, including Canada.

Now let's move on to general production: Again, Sigs are done on 11/25. That means the last Sig rolled onto the line on 11/18. So, 11/19 is when GP cars start rolling onto the line. They said in the call on Monday that they've been hiring and training another shift of folks to get them up to 400/week, since they've got all the parts stuff worked out and it's just a manpower issue now. Those people take 2-3 weeks to train (also from the call), so they should be coming on right around that 11/19 date. So, off the line comes 400 cars per week, starting 11/26 (Note: burn-in and inspections mean we probably won't see the first GP deliveries until probably 11/30).

So, here's the planned production schedule I'm guessing we're going to see:

Week Ending	Entering Line	Finished Production
11/18	CA Sig #1-200	US Sig #800-1000
11/25	GP #1-399	CA Sig #1-200
12/2	GP #400-799	GP #1-399
12/9	GP #800-1199	GP #400-799
12/16	GP #1200-1599	GP #800-1199
12/23	GP #1600-1999	GP #1200-1599
12/30	GP #2000-2399	GP #1600-1999

Please note those aren't VINs or reservation sequence numbers! They are simply the absolute sequence of car produced. VINs and reservations sequence numbers can and will be produced out of order. **** happens. Also, this is does not include post-production steps of burn-in, inspection, and other miscellaneous tasks that happen. It also doesn't include delivery time, which can vary wildly depending on picking up the car in Fremont, at a store, or having a home delivery.

Again, those numbers are not sequence numbers, so if you're right on the cusp of the end of the year, remember to account for cancellations that happen. There haven't been a huge number, but it may bump you into 2012 territory. I know I'm right on the edge and will be dependent on cancellations happening and there being no further production delays.

So, I hope that's helpful to visualize what's going on in Fremont right now. Again, this is all a guess. I'm known to be wrong. Often. I'll update this with more info as it comes along.

Back to editing the spreadsheet...

Edit: We've gotten word from factory tours on 11/10 that general production cars are in assembly. It appears that CA sigs are not going to start right after US sigs, so that "slot" should be swapped out for whenever they actually start production in the coming weeks. I'll update my chart once we have more information.

 

[DouglasR]

Nice job, Tim. Very helpful. As a rule of thumb, would you say the post-production steps average a week or less, and delivery is anything from immediate (factory) to two weeks (east coast)?

 

[Fedderman]

I asked for an update on the estimated delivery from my product specialist today... here is his response: "It looks like your delivery is still estimated at November or December. I would obviously guess that would more than likely be end of December, since you have a higher sequence number. You did get your order in early, which helps though. I do not have a delivery range on your account yet; but, if you want to keep in contact, I will update you on the progress.".

I'm hopeful he is right... perhaps my configuration and my location help. I modified my sig to indicate delivery on Xmas eve. :smile:

 

[contaygious]

4k in dec? Not sure I'd buy that.

Tim that is super helpful thx! Hoping for early dec! Wouldn't ps be getting windows now though? My rep says 1 month ahead you get contacted be delivery specialist with window.

 

[adurstewitz]

I've called and talked to several reps and they keep telling me the end of December for P3853 85kW. I understand that this is doubtful, but I can hope. Really wish we could be given an accurate window rather than the pre-MPVA date.

 

[dsm363]

By mid next year hopefully things are much more predictable in terms of ordering any pack size and getting a reasonably accurate delivery window.

 

[ChrisC]

So, after that comes CA Sigs, of which there are 200. That's another week.

I think we've heard here that Canada Sigs will be mixed into general production. There aren't enough of them to do proper batching. Just sayin' what I recall ...

Edit: I'm not sure who moved this, but I intended it as a separate thread so I could keep the first post updated as new information came out. I didn't want it to get lost as another post in this production rate thread...

Assuming your post doesn't get split back out, Tim I have a suggestion for you. In your forum signature, alongside or replacing the Tesla countdown image, put in a link to your key posts. So link to your delivery spreadsheet post, and link to your production rate post. Format them in a small font so that they are unobtrusive. I contributed similar forum efforts at the Volt fanboy site back in 2010, and that is how I pointed people to my key reference posts: linked in the sig.

 

[timdorr]

Nice job, Tim. Very helpful. As a rule of thumb, would you say the post-production steps average a week or less, and delivery is anything from immediate (factory) to two weeks (east coast)?

I remember reading a specialist being quoted as saying 1-5 days. That seems pretty reasonable to me. It's also going to go down, as GP cars receive less burn-in time (they don't really need the 100+ miles that most signatures have gotten) and should fail less inspections as the skill and efficiency of the production team increases.

- - - Updated - - -

Assuming your post doesn't get split back out, Tim I have a suggestion for you. In your forum signature, alongside or replacing the Tesla countdown image, put in a link to your key posts. So link to your delivery spreadsheet post, and link to your production rate post. Format them in a small font so that they are unobtrusive. I contributed similar forum efforts at the Volt fanboy site back in 2010, and that is how I pointed people to my key reference posts: linked in the sig.

Yeah, good point. I've been meaning to update it anyways. I'll go do that now...

 

[Zzzz...]

Yeah, good point. I've been meaning to update it anyways. I'll go do that now...

Best solution would be for mods to move that post so it would become a first one in this thread (it is possible to do).

Or make first post wiki, that would also work.

 

[Zzzz...]

Tesla Motors ‏@TeslaMotors
Tesla's Stamping Team celebrates the production of their 150,000th panel stamped! Job "weld" done Team Tesla!

Interesting! Anyone know how many panels being used to produce each Model S?

 

[Lloyd]

53 panels

 

[efusco]

53 panels

2830 Tesla's worth already!


Evan, Via Tapatalk

 

[Tommy]

53 panels

The word "panel" has me wondering if they mean the outer and inner skin of the car which were I gather the 53 is derived from, or if it is a term used to describe a piece that gets stamped. The Fremont tour had a poster showing 4 presses used to stamp the parts for the S. The total stamped parts listed were 83. In any event, with the crash test cars, demos and screw-ups probably can't nail down the cars produced for customer delivery which is what I think Zzzz is trying to ascertain.

 

[Lloyd]

I asked on the tour, how many stampings to make an S body. The answer was 53.

 

[NigelM]

TheAustin posted this over in the delivery thread:

OK, this is actually pretty helpful info.

Although that info seems more realistic to me, don't forget there's other conflicting information on the forum suggesting #3,000 might get their car this year. The point I'd add is that this should all be taken with a pinch of salt.

So, it's been confirmed that a car is not assigned a VIN (or at least the VIN is not assigned to a customer) until the body-in-white comes out of paint and onto the assembly line.

Not necessarily from what I heard.

We just saw VIN 1010 assigned today, which means we're close to the end of the US Sigs (I'm assuming the VINs go over 1000 because of non-customer cars for showrooms, testing, media, etc and possibly unrecoverable production failures, though that seems unlikely to me). They're at somewhere around 35-40 cars per day, so I'm guessing the final US Sig should be going on the line tomorrow....

I know of some late Sig holders who haven't received that info, so you might be jumping to conclusions. But who knows?

So, after that comes CA Sigs, of which there are 200. That's another week. Then give it another week to finish production. That all lines up with what the specialist has said. Roughly 11/25 for finishing all Sig production, including Canada.

Big assumption. Although I'm not saying you're wrong.

Again, Sigs are done on 11/25. That means the last Sig rolled onto the line on 11/18. So, 11/19 is when GP cars start rolling onto the line.

You're assuming production is one week. Up till now it's been more like two and therefore reaching one week is going to be highly dependent on increasing the run rate. I'd err on the safe side and assume it won't be a problem free ramp up. As you say, **** happens.

Again, this is all a guess. I'm known to be wrong. Often. I'll update this with more info as it comes along.

You make a good case but there's a lot of assumptions built one on top of the other. Personally, I'm not sure that we'll ever be able to accurately estimate rates when the only constant we have is the actual delivery information, but I wish you luck trying.

Just a word of caution to anyone who might be trying to calculate their own date....mine was all planned and set but just about everything that could have gone wrong, did. That wasn't Tesla's fault but actual delivery was 4 weeks later than the confirmed date.

 

[timdorr]

You're assuming production is one week. Up till now it's been more like two and therefore reaching one week is going to be highly dependent on increasing the run rate. I'd err on the safe side and assume it won't be a problem free ramp up. As you say, **** happens.

There are differing definitions of "production". As you know, there is an extensive burn-in and inspection process that occurs after the car comes off the line. There is also the production of the body-in-white. I'm not including either of those parts of the process in my definition of "production". So, from first stamp to final approval, it's definitely going to be more than 7 days. But so much of that overlaps that it really doesn't matter much. Your car doesn't become your car until you get a VIN and it enters the line. Keeping it to the minimal definition of production also makes things line up more easily on my chart

 

[NigelM]

Keeping it to the minimal definition of production also makes things line up more easily on my chart

By definition then, you're also excluding any bottlenecks or hold-ups that could occur in those areas?

Take a look at post #268 up-thread. I don't believe that #3853 will be delivered end-December so how do we know that the original info you based the chart on is in any way correct? I also recall seeing a post today from someone who was told he would get a ~4,000 delivery end of the year (I can't find it now but don't believe that one either)

(BTW, I'm deliberately being negative in order to stress-test your theory. I think it's interesting so please don't take it personally)