Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves)

[Zzzz...]

Lloyd, Tommy,

Thank you!

There are differing definitions of "production".

What really matters, is how often cars come out of assembly line.

Rest of production processes like stamping, body, paint shop, drivetrain, QC, delivery etc will eventually catch up.

 

[jerry33]

I asked on the tour, how many stampings to make an S body. The answer was 53.

Not 42?

 

[pilotSteve]

Not 42?

I would ALWAYS go with 42 as the answer.

 

[v12 to 12v]

I'm VIN 909 and I was sent a note that my car "is wrapping up production". Any guesses on what that means?

-update-


BTW, one week ago I was told that my car was "not yet in production", yet I had a VIN.

 

[timdorr]

By definition then, you're also excluding any bottlenecks or hold-ups that could occur in those areas?

Oh yes, there can certainly be bottlenecks. But outside of stamping, those are all on a per-car basis. That is, a hold up due to a QC failure only affects one car, not the entire line. And most cars won't experience those kinds of hold-ups, so it's best to represent the most common experience.

Take a look at post #268 up-thread. I don't believe that #3853 will be delivered end-December so how do we know that the original info you based the chart on is in any way correct? I also recall seeing a post today from someone who was told he would get a ~4,000 delivery end of the year (I can't find it now but don't believe that one either)

I think that specialist is just ill-informed. There's no way anyone over P3000 is getting a car this year. The cancellations would have to be far more extensive than reported. And that wouldn't make any sense.

 

[jhs_7645]

...
There's no way anyone over P3000 is getting a car this year. The cancellations would have to be far more extensive than reported. And that wouldn't make any sense.

I wouldn't be so certain, two things could impact this: 1) a production rate exceeding 400/week (not likely, but possible) 2) that the cancellation rate in the first few thousand reservations is extraordinarily high and tapers to very low after.. say.. 5000. I do think it's likely that the cancellation rate in the first few thousand is going to be higher, the question might be, just how high. And that, we won't know until we start to see VIN/P# matching. That's when the fun begins.

 

[contaygious]

Its 200 a week now and Tesla says they are trying to hit 400 a week in dec sometime. That's not early enough to get to 3k p

 

[ckessel]

Its 200 a week now and Tesla says they are trying to hit 400 a week in dec sometime. That's not early enough to get to 3k p

I posted this in another thread, but since it's relevant I'll post it here.

Based on the call this morning, it sounds like they'll ship ~3000 cars in Q4.
I'm going to do a lot of rounding here, but ~770 are US Sigs, 200 might be Canadian Sigs, leaving around 2000 for R and P reservations. The Q3 info said they gained 2900 reservations, but the net was only 1700, so about 1200 cancellations. It sounded like the cancellations were weighted towards older reservations. We've had folks through around P7000 contacted I think, so say 800 cancellations through the R500 & P3500 spots for a nice round 20% cancellation rate in the "earlier" reservation holders. Let's also say 30% of the folks don't want the 85kwh battery (a number pulled from thin air).

So, working backwards from the 2000 non-Sig deliveries we can extrapolate back out to the last P code shipped this year: 2000 / .8 / .7 = 3571 - R500 = P3071.

Obviously there's a ton of rounding and assumptions in there, but it doesn't seem too unreasonable to think folks around P3000 have a shot at a car this year.

 

[sublimaze1]

I posted this in another thread, but since it's relevant I'll post it here.

Based on the call this morning, it sounds like they'll ship ~3000 cars in Q4.
I'm going to do a lot of rounding here, but ~770 are US Sigs, 200 might be Canadian Sigs, leaving around 2000 for R and P reservations. The Q3 info said they gained 2900 reservations, but the net was only 1700, so about 1200 cancellations. It sounded like the cancellations were weighted towards older reservations. We've had folks through around P7000 contacted I think, so say 800 cancellations through the R500 & P3500 spots for a nice round 20% cancellation rate in the "earlier" reservation holders. Let's also say 30% of the folks don't want the 85kwh battery (a number pulled from thin air).

So, working backwards from the 2000 non-Sig deliveries we can extrapolate back out to the last P code shipped this year: 2000 / .8 / .7 = 3571 - R500 = P3071.

Obviously there's a ton of rounding and assumptions in there, but it doesn't seem too unreasonable to think folks around P3000 have a shot at a car this year.

Let's hope your extrapolated fuzzy logic math is spot-on! Would be a nice Christmas ....

 

[ModelS1079]

ckessel - you bring faith, joy, and fuzzy math. I am coming to like fuzzy math. Go for it: what day will I get the call that my P1079 is ready for delivery?

 

[adurstewitz]

Nobody would need to predict when they'd get their car if Tesla would give us an accurate date. :/

preMVPA: Nov - Dec
Forum: Jan - Feb
P#3853 85kW, grey, tech, suspension, 19'', child seats

Either way, all I know is that I'm more than 30 days out. *Cue twilight zone music...

 

[Trnsl8r]

From P2009: Model S Delivery Update - Page 231

I spoke to my delivery specialist yesterday to find out what the current production schedule really is, and to see if I could get a handle on when I could realistically expect to see my car (P2009 85kW).

He said that the are still at the 200 cars/week level, and would need another couple of weeks to finish up the last of the Sigs. By that point, they hope to ramp up to 400 cars/week...There are no guarantees that they will be able to at that time...But that is their hope. However, once they do make the shift to 400 cars/week, THAT is when then will be able to give more accurate delivery estimates for the Production cars. At this point, he can estimate that my P2009 won't arrive until at least mid-to-end of January. My most recent estimate prior to that was late November-early December. Clearly I wasn't thrilled with this latest update (delay), but I'm trying to be Zen...It's been 2 1/2 years, what's another couple of months... :/
...

From P4002: Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves) - Page 27

I asked for an update on the estimated delivery from my product specialist today... here is his response: "It looks like your delivery is still estimated at November or December. I would obviously guess that would more than likely be end of December, since you have a higher sequence number. You did get your order in early, which helps though. I do not have a delivery range on your account yet; but, if you want to keep in contact, I will update you on the progress.".
...

(Bolding mine.)

Now, they can't both be right. Personally, if I had to bet, my money would be on TheAustin's estimate...

 

[DouglasR]

@timdorr, have you tried to estimate how many Sigs do not yet have a VIN? You should be able to get a pretty good idea as to what proportion of all Sigs are sampled in your spreadsheet. If you count up the number of Sigs in the spreadsheet that have no VIN (taking account of those who may have reported a delivery window but then not participated further), and then extrapolate from the sample, that should tell you how many Sigs have not yet entered into production.

Or I could be patient, and wait for the Rs to start reporting delivery windows. :wink:

 

[timdorr]

@timdorr, have you tried to estimate how many Sigs do not yet have a VIN? You should be able to get a pretty good idea as to what proportion of all Sigs are sampled in your spreadsheet. If you count up the number of Sigs in the spreadsheet that have no VIN (taking account of those who may have reported a delivery window but then not participated further), and then extrapolate from the sample, that should tell you how many Sigs have not yet entered into production.

It's hard to do that because while there are some Sigs without a VIN, many of the ones listed in the spreadsheet without one are actually just people that haven't posted an update.

According to the spreadsheet, about 77.7% of all Sigs have a VIN assigned. But there are numerous entries that haven't been updated in weeks, which accounts for that. And the VINs being assigned recently are high enough now that every single US sig should be in production at some stage, with CA sigs or possibly even general production starting this coming week.

 

[NigelM]

From P2009: Model S Delivery Update - Page 231

<snip>

From P4002: Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves) - Page 27

<snip>

Now, they can't both be right. Personally, if I had to bet, my money would be on TheAustin's estimate...

Thanks for finding those.

@timdorr: doesn't this suggest the foundation of your production rate theory is shaky? While I also would tend towards believing the first example is more accurate, I've got to question whether I'd build my house on it.

 

[DouglasR]

And the VINs being assigned recently are high enough now that every single US sig should be in production at some stage, with CA sigs or possibly even general production starting this coming week.

I'm sure you saw it, but there is a report in the Delivery thread of a factory visit where VINs in the 1300s and cars in production colors were spotted. So non-Sigs are finally in production! These are probably Rs, and they are probably being mixed in with the remaining Sigs, but Ps could certainly start getting built next week. At 200+ per week and growing, it's looking more and more like your optimism is justified.

 

[timdorr]

@timdorr: doesn't this suggest the foundation of your production rate theory is shaky? While I also would tend towards believing the first example is more accurate, I've got to question whether I'd build my house on it.

I've based those numbers on assigned VINs and actual deliveries. The original date ranges and sequence numbers have always been very rough, so I didn't use them for prediction.

Given that we're seeing GP started a day earlier than I had planned (if you swap out the CA sig production for a week or two from now), it appears I'm correct. Now we just need to see when the production rate ramps up to 400/week and if that falls in line with my projections.

 

[KBF]

I'm sure you saw it, but there is a report in the Delivery thread of a factory visit where VINs in the 1300s and cars in production colors were spotted. So non-Sigs are finally in production! These are probably Rs, and they are probably being mixed in with the remaining Sigs, but Ps could certainly start getting built next week. At 200+ per week and growing, it's looking more and more like your optimism is justified.

FWIW, GeorgeB said that Cdn Sigs will start production in a couple of weeks (Transport Canada delays) . So there will be some P cars on the line in before those, I assume. Unless he meant they would finish production in 2-3 weeks, but I doubt it. So early US R's, rejoice.

 

[Vexar]

Take a look at post #268 up-thread. I don't believe that #3853 will be delivered end-December so how do we know that the original info you based the chart on is in any way correct? I also recall seeing a post today from someone who was told he would get a ~4,000 delivery end of the year (I can't find it now but don't believe that one either)

I called last week, starting with "I'm sorry to call about this, I'm sure you get 100's of these calls a day, but..." and then asked the obvious question. The TM representative said to me that reservation #3371 (my MVPA has roughly 031##0 in the document's footer, whatever that number does) was on track for the end of December 2012, but that I was right on the bubble. He said that Tesla had planned on building 3500 by year's end. I found that is consistent with other statements. But... this doesn't make sense if you count the Signature vehicles. It would be at least two weeks into January at that point.
So, I guess there's 3 numbers to work with: Reservation number, MVPA "RN" number, and VIN number. Is there a signature Model S owner/reservation holder who can explain their MVPA "RN" number?

 

[timdorr]

Is there a signature Model S owner/reservation holder who can explain their MVPA "RN" number?

It should be the same as on your teslamotors.com My Tesla section. It appears to be randomly assigned, so it doesn't have any order to it.