Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves)

[timdorr]

We're now at 82% of reported deliveries reporting a VIN and 86% of those with VINs have their cars. Because people only post once and don't think to come back to TMC or the official forums, we're never going to have 100% coverage. However, there aren't many Signatures left without a delivery or at least without their cars in transit.

I'm honestly surprised they haven't contacted any Rs yet. We've heard reports that GP vehicles are on the line. And given how high those VINs went, they should be done with some of them by now! I understand that they want to give Sigs the benefit of receiving their cars first, but it's getting to the point where they're going to hurt their financials by underutilizing their delivery staff. I hope some good news is on the way this week!

Edit: I sent a message over to [email protected] basically asking these same kinds of questions. Let's hope the stars align and they have some time to answer!

 

[Laumb]

Posted this In another thread yesterday, but I meant to post it here.

This is the car In the Oslo store at the moment. Registered(10.23.2012) with a german title In the glovebox.

_____
Tapatalkin' from iTalatut.

 

[aviators99]

We're now at 82% of reported deliveries reporting a VIN and 86% of those with VINs have their cars. Because people only post once and don't think to come back to TMC or the official forums, we're never going to have 100% coverage. However, there aren't many Signatures left without a delivery or at least without their cars in transit.

I'm honestly surprised they haven't contacted any Rs yet. We've heard reports that GP vehicles are on the line. And given how high those VINs went, they should be done with some of them by now! I understand that they want to give Sigs the benefit of receiving their cars first, but it's getting to the point where they're going to hurt their financials by underutilizing their delivery staff. I hope some good news is on the way this week!

Me too!

Are there any US Sigs other than Jkam whom we know don't meet the criteria you mention?

Edit: I see at least v12 to 12v, tezco, dogface, kroneal and pilotSteve. Also, scott@schomesbu, jdb and jrb@johnandlind on TM.

 

[DouglasR]

We're now at 82% of reported deliveries reporting a VIN and 86% of those with VINs have their cars. Because people only post once and don't think to come back to TMC or the official forums, we're never going to have 100% coverage. However, there aren't many Signatures left without a delivery or at least without their cars in transit.

I'm honestly surprised they haven't contacted any Rs yet. We've heard reports that GP vehicles are on the line. And given how high those VINs went, they should be done with some of them by now! I understand that they want to give Sigs the benefit of receiving their cars first, but it's getting to the point where they're going to hurt their financials by underutilizing their delivery staff. I hope some good news is on the way this week!

Edit: I sent a message over to [email protected] basically asking these same kinds of questions. Let's hope the stars align and they have some time to answer!

Tim, I'm not sure what you mean by "82% of reported deliveries reporting a VIN." In any event, my theory is that they are not underutilizing their delivery staff, but rather have simply imposed radio silence on the notification of new delivery windows and VINs. I think the Rs will be getting notices shortly, and in a big wave. And the notice will definitely not be 30 days in advance. At least I hope that's what's going on.

 

[shokunin]

I'm in the camp that thinks they are stockpiling cars until the Sig's are done or near 99% done. By controlling expectations (ahem, communications), they can also batch and ship full truckloads to a single location. This way the DS can be more efficient by delivering a larger number in a more central cluster. This should be more efficient than flying from city to city.

For all we know there could be trucks with R's and P's in transit to certain states with service centers.

 

[NigelM]

We're now at 82% of reported deliveries reporting a VIN and 86% of those with VINs have their cars. Because people only post once and don't think to come back to TMC or the official forums, we're never going to have 100% coverage. However, there aren't many Signatures left without a delivery or at least without their cars in transit.

What about the Canadian Sigs?

 

[Doug_G]

What about the Canadian Sigs?

George Blankenship said we'd all get our cars in December. To my knowledge no one has gotten a VIN or delivery date yet. It does sound like they are delaying the notifications until they're certain the car will be ready.

 

[timdorr]

Tim, I'm not sure what you mean by "82% of reported deliveries reporting a VIN."

I mean that of the people that have reported receiving a delivery window (or a delivery and never reported the original window), 82% of those folks have reported an assigned VIN. And 86% of those folks reporting an assigned VIN have reported a delivery.

Again, there are people that only post once about getting a delivery window and never report back in (presumably because they're distracted by their awesome car!), so we'll never see 100% of the first reports updated. But 82% for all Signatures matches up with the ~81% we've got if you count just SSLs, and we know for sure those are all delivered at this point. So, I would say we're nearly fully delivered on Signatures at this point.

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What about the Canadian Sigs?

No CA sig has received a window, so it's either 100% or 0% have a VIN, depending on how you look at it

 

[NigelM]

However, there aren't many Signatures left without a delivery or at least without their cars in transit.

No CA sig has received a window, so it's either 100% or 0% have a VIN, depending on how you look at it

Sorry to be pedantic, but if you didn't include CDA Sigs in your first assumption, then the surprise about the lack of contact to Rs is not surprising.

 

[aviators99]

Sorry to be pedantic, but if you didn't include CDA Sigs in your first assumption, then the surprise about the lack of contact to Rs is not surprising.

Only if you're certain that the CDA Sigs will be delivered before Rs.

 

[timdorr]

Sorry to be pedantic, but if you didn't include CDA Sigs in your first assumption, then the surprise about the lack of contact to Rs is not surprising.

CA Sigs are held up on regulatory approval. Even if Tesla had all the cars ready to go right now, they can't deliver them until Transport Canada approves. But that should be shortly, according to GeorgeB. Until that's the case, they don't factor into the math.

 

[ckessel]

Just repeat after me: there's a mouse loose about the house... should sound like "there's a moose loose aboot the hoose". You'll need a pro-cess and a pro-ject to deal with the mouse too.

It's Canada, what do you say when it's actually a moose?

As for production lines, I know they've been working 7 days a week for quite some time (Elon has mentioned it a couple times). I'm not sure if that's more than one shift though. Multiple shifts means hiring more folks. Maybe they work staggered shifts.

People make a lot of mistakes with seriously long hours. Hopefully they get the production rate under control with reasonable hours per person or the quality is going to be a problem (not to mention the human toll). Maybe not a problem we see if they have good final checks, but it'd cause a lot of rework and affect the bottom line. Though based on the number of folks saying they've had issues with doors handles, passenger door requiring a serious slam to close, charging issues, etc, maybe quality issues are slipping by.

 

[Doug_G]

It's Canada, what do you say when it's actually a moose?

I'm Canadian and I say "mauwse" for mouse, and "moose" for moose (the first part sounds just like "moo").

CA Sigs are held up on regulatory approval. Even if Tesla had all the cars ready to go right now, they can't deliver them until Transport Canada approves. But that should be shortly, according to GeorgeB. Until that's the case, they don't factor into the math.

You need to factor it into the math. George Blankenship told me on Thursday that Canadian Signatures have conditional approval from Transport Canada. The only reason it is conditional is that they're finalizing the wording that goes on the various information plates on the vehicle. That is a simple print-the-sticker-and-stick-it-on-the-door operation. They don't need to wait for that; production of the Canadian Signatures is going ahead.

 

[timdorr]

You need to factor it into the math. George Blankenship told me on Thursday that Canadian Signatures have conditional approval from Transport Canada. The only reason it is conditional is that they're finalizing the wording that goes on the various information plates on the vehicle. That is a simple print-the-sticker-and-stick-it-on-the-door operation. They don't need to wait for that; production of the Canadian Signatures is going ahead.

It's an 82% assigned VIN rate of Signatures that have received their delivery date range. No CA Sig has a delivery date range, so it doesn't factor into that number yet. As soon as Tesla starts talking, the data will update. It's the same reason the GP cars don't factor into the math.

 

[NigelM]

Tim, it's not that percentage number that makes the difference; just that you went on to talk about the Rs coming next....CDA Sigs are in the mix and Tesla wants to get all the NA Sigs out a.s.a.p. The CDA cars may not completely come between U.S. Sigs and Rs but that will come out soon and that means a week or two of slowdown on R and P production.

 

[Grendal]

Tesla needs to crank up the production to "11" with all the reservations flying in. GP is at 14,286 and the daily rate is rocking. Tesla is going to have all of next year sold out before the year even starts!

 

[contaygious]

Yup, not a good idea to hold out on delivering any ps and rs until after cad sigs IMO. I really hope they don't just have Ps sitting around the lots waiting. They need to deliver as many as possible before Xmas and many people will be gone or busy for the holidays like me so they can't count on all of us to be at home waiting until dec 29th to pick up our cars.

 

[Doug_G]

I really doubt that they are intentionally sitting on cars. They can't afford to do that. I'm pretty sure they've shifted to contacting customers for delivery later in the production process, which would give the appearance of a gap.

Also George did admit that they still have the occasional minor parts delays here and there - no surprise. This could lead to 99.9% completed cars sitting for a few days waiting for some parts.

 

[NigelM]

Yup, not a good idea to hold out on delivering any ps and rs until after cad sigs IMO.

Funny, members could be screaming about integrity if Tesla doesn't keep their word....unless it holds up their own car? :wink:

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BTW: posts about Canadian pronunciations went here.

 

[ModelS1079]

Wanted to note I heard Elon say, in person, that Tesla is "absolutely, yes" making well over 250 Model S's per week as of last Monday, November 12th. hope that helps with current production estimates on TMC.