It's in my signature. P1698.
Doh. Just noticed your signature.
I've been using the following rough calculation to estimate the last P to be delivered in 2012. According to TM's most recent guidance, at least 2700 cars will be delivered to customers in 2012 (200 in Q3 + 2500 in Q4). Subtract from that 1200 North American Sigs and 40 Founders cars, and you get at least 1460 Rs and Ps to be delivered to customers in 2012. If we assume a 25% rate of cancellations and deferrals, then the 1460 must be grossed up (divided by .75) to 1947. Now subtract 532 Rs, which will be delivered first, and you get 1515, the highest number P to be delivered in 2012. If TM delivers 3000 cars rather than 2500 cars in Q4, that number is increased to 2081. If cancellations exceed 25%, the number goes up further. If TM undershoots its target or cancellations are less than 25%, the number goes down.
You can see that the number 1515 is pretty close to what you were told about your own delivery date: end of December or January for P1698.
The problem is that this calculation needs to be reconciled with current production rates and delivery reports. I read somewhere that either GB or Elon confirmed production was up to 250 a week as of a few days ago (I'll try to find the post - post 360 in this thread). I would think it would need to be a bit higher to reach the 400 per week that was projected for December 1, particularly with the Thanksgiving holiday intervening. Also, we've been theorizing that TM has not slowed production of Ps to accommodate the Sigs, but rather has just stopped sending out notices with VINs and delivery windows. But that can go on only so long. It's not like TM can send the notices
after the cars are delivered. If we don't see those notices soon, we will have to assume that production of Rs and Ps is running behind projections.
On the basis of this, I am guessing that production is going to be at the lower end of the range. The last P will be around 1500 at best, and because of Christmas and the weather, possibly under 1000.