Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves)

[Doug_G]

Hmm... I happened to be driving north on 880 early last Saturday evening and did notice what looked like a lot of Model Ss sitting on the lot at the Fremont plant.

That could indicate a parts shortage issue - cars that have been 99.9% built but are waiting for something from a supplier.

 

[Smallfootprint]

I think we have to take delivered location into account. Most likely they will have produced up to around P1500 - 1700 by end of year. So if someone lives close by and can pick up at the factory they may get VIN 1600 this year while anyone east of the Rockies probably won't see anything above P500 delivered

Not sure if this makes a difference but the New York delivery experience specialists have been told to expect to work 7 days a week through first quarter 2013.

 

[LakeForest]

That could indicate a parts shortage issue - cars that have been 99.9% built but are waiting for something from a supplier.

or early r's and p's waiting for the last of the sigs to be delivered

 

[timdorr]

That could indicate a parts shortage issue - cars that have been 99.9% built but are waiting for something from a supplier.

Could be all the Canadian Sigs waiting for final paperwork from Transport Canada.

 

[timdorr]

I went through most of the delivery date range reports and did research on all the ones that haven't reported an actual delivery yet. I was able to find quite a few that have actually been delivered, but either didn't report it to the spreadsheet or slipped through my normal checks. It was either people posting other threads or making circumstantial posts that pointed to them getting their car (e.g. "I've had my car for about a week..." or "I was logging into Slacker in my car").

All told, now 95.61% of the those delivery range reports with VINs assigned have received their cars. I assume there's some give-and-pull either way (people that still haven't gotten a VIN for some reason vs. people who reported VINs but haven't posted since), so that's going to be pretty close to the actual delivery percentage. That means a good estimate would be 50-75 Sigs left to be delivered.

So yeah, I'm honestly not sure why no one else, CA Sigs, Rs, even Ps, have heard about their deliveries yet. There's definitely something going on with the delivery process, since we've heard reports of GP cars being built during factory tours. I hope they can figure things out soon. I also hope they can communicate their efforts back to us too. That would go a long way towards managing our expectations.

 

[contaygious]

Timdorr did you post your email response from tesla somewhere? I can't find it thx

 

[napabill]

I posted this earlier today, but since the Bulletin Board on the TM site has now confirmed, I can say that I was told by a Regional Delivery Mgr that my P-83 was in production. I didn't ask, and he didn't offer a VIN #. He believes there is a chance for a Dec 1 delivery. Based on many factors, I actually believe him.

 

[JakeP]

Woooohhooooooo!!!!! That is great news Napabill, congratulations! Open the floodgates, Tesla!

 

[timdorr]

Timdorr did you post your email response from tesla somewhere? I can't find it thx

Yup, I posted it earlier: Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves) - Page 37

I also got another followup saying there would be the possibility of paying for my car in advance of delivery to make it count for the 2012 tax year. That's dependent on them actually producing the car this year, but the chances of that are very good right now.

 

[Norbert]

Not sure if this makes a difference but the New York delivery experience specialists have been told to expect to work 7 days a week through first quarter 2013.

Quoting for emphasis, if I may.

 

[efusco]

Will Model S General Production deliveries have to wait until all US and Canadian Model S Signature cars are delivered? | Forums | Tesla Motors
Probably posted elsewhere already, but OH YEA!! Maybe I get a call for R77 next week!

WILL MODEL S GENERAL PRODUCTION DELIVERIES HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL ALL US AND CANADIAN MODEL S SIGNATURE CARS ARE DELIVERED?
nkinkaid@teslam... | NOVEMBER 21, 2012
No. There will always be a small amount of overlap at the end of deliveries for one series and the beginning of another. We are approaching that time now with Signature and General Production. We are setting up the last few US Signature car deliveries now and are about to start contacting General Production customers to begin setting up their deliveries. The overlap will be minimal, but there will be a few General Production cars that get delivered before the final US Signature cars. In many cases, these final Signature cars are ones that were configured in September and October and have been given high priority throughout the process, but simply cannot be built in time before General Production cars have started.

Canadian Signature production is now well under way. Delivery of these cars will overlap some final US Signature cars and some General Production cars.

 

[timdorr]

Will Model S General Production deliveries have to wait until all US and Canadian Model S Signature cars are delivered? | Forums | Tesla Motors
Probably posted elsewhere already, but OH YEA!! Maybe I get a call for R77 next week!

Sounds like my projected production plan is actually going to be fairly accurate: Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves) - Page 27

If CA Sigs are in full swing and we're approaching an overlap of GP deliveries, that would fit quite nicely with my predictions. We'll just have to see if they can spool up the 400/week numbers with the new night shift coming online soon.

 

[DouglasR]

I also got another followup saying there would be the possibility of paying for my car in advance of delivery to make it count for the 2012 tax year. That's dependent on them actually producing the car this year, but the chances of that are very good right now.

Tim, this is HUGE! If I could do this (and if it really qualified me for the 2012 tax credit), it might mean the difference between being able to use the entire $7500 or just a part of it. Did you get this from an Ownership Experience Advocate?

- - - Updated - - -

Sounds like my projected production plan is actually going to be fairly accurate: Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves) - Page 27

If CA Sigs are in full swing and we're approaching an overlap of GP deliveries, that would fit quite nicely with my predictions. We'll just have to see if they can spool up the 400/week numbers with the new night shift coming online soon.

If you're right -- and I hope you are -- we should see a bunch of notifications going out to Rs and Canadian Sigs in the next few days. Do we have a good sampling of these reservation holders on TMC? It would be helpful if all of them made sure to report, so that your spreadsheet can be kept up to date.

 

[timdorr]

Tim, this is HUGE! If I could do this (and if it really qualified me for the 2012 tax credit), it might mean the difference between being able to use the entire $7500 or just a part of it. Did you get this from an Ownership Experience Advocate?

Yep, that was his exact title. OEA. Here's the quote:

While I do not think it advantageous to take delivery in California to expedite the sale, might I suggest the possibility of paying for your car early? If the car is produced before the end of the year, and we receive paperwork and payment at that time, then you can have the 2012 tax advantage. This would be at the same time, if not earlier, than when a Fremont factory delivery would be offered.

So, again, it's highly dependent on production and paperwork going through. But if my estimates are right and there's some wiggle room from cancellations/upgrades before me in line, I have a damn good chance of at least being able to pay for this car in 2012. Hell, I'd pay them now if I could

 

[Trnsl8r]

Yep, that was his exact title. OEA. Here's the quote:



So, again, it's highly dependent on production and paperwork going through. But if my estimates are right and there's some wiggle room from cancellations/upgrades before me in line, I have a damn good chance of at least being able to pay for this car in 2012. Hell, I'd pay them now if I could

I don't know for sure, but I think you have to "take delivery" in 2012, which I think means physically driving the car away. Anyone?

 

[elecblue]

Keep in mind that OEAs are not tax experts. I'll look up the IRS form and report back here.

 

[timdorr]

I don't know for sure, but I think you have to "take delivery" in 2012, which I think means physically driving the car away. Anyone?

The form asks for the date the vehicle was "placed in service": http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f8936.pdf

I believe that would be whenever it's actually produced. Just because you're not driving it personally doesn't mean it's not being placed into service. The US tax system operates on the concept of "realization" of wealth (or loss of it): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realization_(tax) So, even if I haven't seen the car in person, sending off some money to Tesla allow them to say the car is owned by me is sufficient for the purchase to be realized in 2012. The delivery doesn't define realization, the production and payment does.

It would be similar to me buying a house (without having seen it for some reason) in another state this year and moving in next year. I still realized the wealth of that asset this year, so I would pay appropriate taxes in 2012. Or, on a much smaller scale, if I buy something on Amazon on December 31st, but it doesn't arrive until January 3rd, I still pay for the item and assess any related taxes in 2012.

 

[DouglasR]

I seem to recall someone citing something in the regs that required registering in the state. I'll shoot an email to my accountant and report back (except she's the kind of person who will likely say, "try it. They are unlikely to question it.")

 

[Zapped]

I could be wrong but when Tesla says delivery I don't think they are referring delivery to the customer. My paperwork states that delivery is at Tesla's facility. On that basis then I would think that they could consider a car delivered when it hits their shipping depot.

Was it your intent to pickup the car at the factory ? I would be interested to know if this is possible for CND Sigs.

 

[JRP3]

I seem to recall someone citing something in the regs that required registering in the state.

If you've paid for the vehicle and have the paper work you can register it without having the actual vehicle present. At least in NY they have never asked to see the car at the DMV when registering, especially since it would be illegal to drive an unregistered vehicle :wink: