Knowing what we know now about the battery replacement costs, the evolving battery technology, capacity capping, charge throttling, etc. (and this applies to any EV) why not lease instead of buying today?
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Knowing what we know now about the battery replacement costs, the evolving battery technology, capacity capping, charge throttling, etc. (and this applies to any EV) why not lease instead of buying today?
That's not the right scenario. You are looking at your car, which still works. The topic is about a car with an already failed battery that is in non-working condition. In no way at all is that worth $20,000. So the rest of your statements based on this false premise are inapplicable. I'm not going to respond to the rest of your insults, but will just be reporting the comment for deletion.KBB has my private party car value at $20,000 irrespective of battery age (that is not a valuation factor).
We don't yet know the extent of the battery failures in the S platform. The first generation certainly has had some poor characteristics in the form of a high outright failure rate and caps put on it to keep them from catching fire. Many of these have been replaced with updated packs that address some of the failures, though probably not all of them.
As of a poll I saw last year on this site (couldn't find it), the vast majority of 2013 Model S are on original battery packs.
My experience is similar. 2013 Model S original battery pack, charges to about 92% of original capacity, supercharges a bit slower, with over double your mileage - 198,000 miles.FYI that my own 2013 S is 95% original capacity and identical supercharging to new after 145000 km.
It is entirely possible that the mass produced battery cost is ~$100/kWh as a component of a new car. But as a stand-alone part to replace in an existing vehicle it may be more.
This is a very good point. Also it should be noted that new cars currently in production are using different kind of battery. You can't just take one battery out from the production line and stick it into a 2013 car. It's a different part, with much smaller production numbers.
Also batteries are huge, and difficult to store because they probably need to the charged once in a while.. So you really can't make a production run for 10000 pcs to get the production costs down, because it would probably take years to sell those.
A 2012 S can take a battery that was made yesterday,
Our (owners of OG S/X cars) Rubicon is when tesla shuts that manufacturing capacity down. Tesla has shown remarkable willingness to adapt old cars to new parts and make new parts for old cars.
Also batteries are huge, and difficult to store because they probably need to the charged once in a while.. So you really can't make a production run for 10000 pcs to get the production costs down, because it would probably take years to sell those.
A 2012 S can take a battery that was made yesterday, so they should make the battery for that S a week before it comes into the shop for a new battery
Actually we do not know if Tesla can make batteries for all of the classic and refresh model S and x's on the road. That is probably part of the update of the line for the refresh. (Probably the part that's holding up the refresh.) That means the battery factory for the s and x, located in fremont, may in fact be shut down.
It is entirely possible that the old style battery can no longer be made with that equipment. Or (more likely) that they shut down most of it for upgrading and only have a small capacity to make them. I really don't think they can easily make old style s and x batteries at any volume at all.
I don't think we'll see the replacement cost of those batteries go down. The giga factory in Arizona makes 2170s only. These have never been adapted to the s and x, in fact never will be. They'll go straight from 18650 to the new "tabless" format.
Your statement is not as true as you believe. The "100" pack is substantially heavier, and cannot be fitted in a 2012 S with air suspension. @wk057 highlighted some exceptions to the types of packs and how they are compatible between model years. Tesla is optimizing the capacity of packs they retrofit to both fit within weight requirements, and to maintain something similar to the capacity of the battery being replaced. This means the "production line" for such a pack can't be identical to the line used for new packs, and variance is generally a cost in manufacturing.
While that's true, the extent of the "different" between the currently produced 100kwh pack and the new replacement 90kwh pack is basically "remove two modules". It's not like we're talking about some completely different boutique manufacturing line.This is a very good point. Also it should be noted that new cars currently in production are using different kind of battery. You can't just take one battery out from the production line and stick it into a 2013 car. It's a different part, with much smaller production numbers.
But do they even produce the 100kWh pack anymore? From what they have said the refreshed S&X have moved to a new pack design. We don't know if they will continue to manufacture the old 100kWh packs or if they will move all warranty replacements to the latest version of the pack design. And we currently know nothing about these new packs.While that's true, the extent of the "different" between the currently produced 100kwh pack and the new replacement 90kwh pack is basically "remove two modules". It's not like we're talking about some completely different boutique manufacturing line.
Yes, agreed. I'm not convinced Tesla knows anything about them either.And we currently know nothing about these new packs.
This sounded very suspect / excuse-y to me too. It seems less technical and more regulatory - or at least an interpretation of regulation that Tesla is using as a shield to not do something they aren't particularly interested in.Things like the airbag timing garbage spouted in the video people keep linking to is absolute nonsense. The airbag module programming is not pack dependent whatsoever.
As far as I'm aware, every S/X pack that is in the wild as of the latest car I've seen (less than 6 months old) can physically fit in every S/X ever made up to that point.
There are some exceptions as to what will function depending on the variations... but this is almost all software with the exception of trying to put a pre-mid-2015 pack into a mid-2015 or newer S/X due to the presence of the standby DCDC built into the packs around that point.
The weight differences are negligible, and all of the chassis were built to handle the heaviest packs. A 100 pack only weighs a few hundred pounds more than the lightest pack ever made, the original 60 pack. If the car has air suspension, this is a software tick. If not, it's swapping four coils to bring the car back into spec.
The software side is different, as packs won't work in configurations Tesla never actually produced (like a RWD 100, an AWD real 60, or a refresh 85) without some hacks. But this is 100% Tesla's choice not to make this possible. There's no technical reason nearly all packs can't function in every single S/X interchangeably.
Things like the airbag timing garbage spouted in the video people keep linking to is absolute nonsense. The airbag module programming is not pack dependent whatsoever. (Getting kind of annoyed at this particular outlet spreading misinformation constantly... it ends up causing me a lot of wasted time explaining truth to customers.)
TL;DR; - All S/X packs can work in all S/X to-date physically if Tesla allowed it in software.
Do you have any thoughts as to if a "legacy" S/X pack could be made out of 4860 cells without modules that would fit in the same space the existing pack fits?
Only Elon knows, but he is on the record saying the refresh cars, with the exception of Plaid Plus, will continue to use the 18650 form factor...But do they even produce the 100kWh pack anymore? From what they have said the refreshed S&X have moved to a new pack design. We don't know if they will continue to manufacture the old 100kWh packs or if they will move all warranty replacements to the latest version of the pack design. And we currently know nothing about these new packs.