SHORT-LIVED THREAD: Your best SP Guess After TSLA's "Big Week"

[electracity]

215 then back down to 200. Then 200. After that, 200.

 

[T3slaTulips]

233.33

 

[Svetlin]

228

 

[EinSV]

46 minutes to get any last minute guesstimates in .....

 

[Muaddid]

At this point I'm expecting almost no reaction (205) or (finally) a realization that TM is on the right track and then it could shoot up to 240

So I'm going to hope to be wrong and say 205

 

[austinEV]

There is going to be a ton of resistance at 212. (200 day MA and top bollinger band) Closing at say 212 (+6%) would be objectively awesome.

 

[omarsultan]

208. Everything else (AP2, solar roof, merger, one qtr of profitability) is a distraction -- SP will hinge on guidance on Model 3 timelines and any update on reservation backlog.

 

[dandurston]

I entered all the guesses and sorted them by price (see attached image).

Average TMC guess: $226.70 (+12.1%)
Standard Deviation: $17.90 (7.9%)
Closest Right Now: EinSV (Guess $211.50, actual $211 afterhours)

 

[Novice]

236

 

[EinSV]

I entered all the guesses and sorted them by price (see attached image).

Average TMC guess: $226.70 (+12.1%)
Standard Deviation: $17.90 (7.9%)
Closest Right Now: EinSV (Guess $211.50, actual $211 afterhours)

Thanks Dan!

The guesses are all in. Great start to the week with yesterday's ER!

Let's see if TMC can repeat its performance guessing Q3 deliveries (median off by only 46 vehicles -- 24775 v 24821).

Personally, I will be rooting for @SW2Fiddler ($266.10) to come out on top.

 

[DriverOne]

I'm the lowest guesser ($190); I'll be very pleased to be wrong. Earnings looked good to me; I was surprised at the strong Q4 guidance too (I thought Q4 would be crammed full of capital expenditure).

 

[electracity]

I think we should call off this contest now and declare a winner! No reason to wait for friday's news.......

215 then back down to 200. Then 200. After that, 200.

 

[EinSV]

I think we should call off this contest now and declare a winner! No reason to wait for friday's news.......

Sorry, it's not over until the fat lady sings. Or Nov. 2 at 4 pm ET, whichever comes first!

 

[EinSV]

Looks like @pz1975 has pulled into the pole position with 204.97 guess versus 204.01 actual at market close.

Please don't take it personally but I will not be rooting for you!

 

[pz1975]

I'm not rooting for me either.

 

[DriverOne]

Not sure what the actual close was, but my $190 is getting closer all the time. Don't worry, this was merely a short term pick. My long term view is that TSLA will rise sometime in 2017... I just have no idea when. There are far more 2017 catalysts than in 2016. Successful Model 3 launch is key. Will investors wait until the launch is seen as successful, or try jumping on before; and if so, how soon before?

Dec 2017 we'll know if I am right.

 

[EinSV]

Not sure what the actual close was, but my $190 is getting closer all the time. Don't worry, this was merely a short term pick. My long term view is that TSLA will rise sometime in 2017... I just have no idea when. There are far more 2017 catalysts than in 2016. Successful Model 3 launch is key. Will investors wait until the launch is seen as successful, or try jumping on before; and if so, how soon before?

Dec 2017 we'll know if I am right.

The official end of the "contest" is not until close of market on Wednesday, but so far your guess, sadly, is one of the best.

Let's see where we are in 49 hours. Nothing personal but I still hope you lose -- and lose badly (Not counting on it though!)

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Maybe we should extend the deadline to Thursday? It seems there's SCTY earnings report on Wednesday as now announced.

 

[EinSV]

Maybe we should extend the deadline to Thursday? It seems there's SCTY earnings report on Wednesday as now announced.

Tempting, but that feels a little bit like "moving the goalposts."

I am thinking we should stick with the original gameplan and see where we are at the close of market tomorrow, and then return to our regularly scheduled programming.

 

[ZsoZso]

It sucks if even the lowest guess turns out to be overly optimistic :O