Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[FredTMC]

Tesla motors was the lead story today on CNBCs "Fast Money"

The segment lasted for at least 10 minutes. Umm wow.

James Albertine of Stifel N and interviewed and did a great job defending the stock and his $400 price target.
he said that his 2017 model is based on a PE of 25 and that he anticipates 110,000 deliveries in that year

Comments from the commentators on the show were mostly positive.

One commentator noted that as a trading strategy it look like a good point to sell some stock in the short-term but another commentator came in and basically said that the option volatility is too low right now to consider selling the stock and that buying puts made more sense for downside protection. Guy Adame (sp) was credited again with nailing the stock run-up from $180.

 

[MikeC]

Tesla motors was the lead story today on CNBCs "Fast Money"

The segment lasted for at least 10 minutes. Umm wow.

James Albertine of Stifel N and interviewed and did a great job defending the stock and his $400 price target.
he said that his 2017 model is based on a PE of 25 and that he anticipates 110,000 deliveries in that year

Comments from the commentators on the show were mostly positive.

One commentator noted that as a trading strategy it look like a good point to sell some stock in the short-term but another commentator came in and basically said that the option volatility is too low right now to consider selling the stock and that buying puts made more sense for downside protection. Guy Adame (sp) was credited again with nailing the stock run-up from $180.

Might explain the nice after hours movement, up $1.71.

 

[FredTMC]

Might explain the nice after hours movement, up $1.71.

probably didn't hurt

 

[austinEV]

I'll leave it to Tesla engineers to figure out what uses the batteries can tollerate, and certainly if the price is right we would all tollerate a little abuse. For example, if the utility is paying $600/kWh, I'll be willing to sell 40 kWh. If this happen a couple of times, it pays for the whole battery.

For night charging, selling variable load should be quite valuable to a utility...

I am convinced. I guess I thought at night they would be using all cheap base power anyway, but I get that the variability is always going to be a cost.

 

[Ocelot]

Tesla motors was the lead story today on CNBCs "Fast Money"

The segment lasted for at least 10 minutes. Umm wow.

James Albertine of Stifel N and interviewed and did a great job defending the stock and his $400 price target.
he said that his 2017 model is based on a PE of 25 and that he anticipates 110,000 deliveries in that year

Comments from the commentators on the show were mostly positive.

One commentator noted that as a trading strategy it look like a good point to sell some stock in the short-term but another commentator came in and basically said that the option volatility is too low right now to consider selling the stock and that buying puts made more sense for downside protection. Guy Adame (sp) was credited again with nailing the stock run-up from $180.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000378956

Personally I disagree with buying puts or cashing in stock and buying calls. I have some DITM calls bought over a year ago and will likely convert them to stock . I see the markets as 'jittery' and feel that anything could set them on a downtrend for 10-20 per cent. So why not puts? Well I beleive in the long term success, and predicting the downtrend timing is very hard. The more I know about tesla, the more I lose in options messing around, the more experience i gain in trading, the more I feel I should 'set it and forget it'. Buy stock, come back in ten years and see whats up. Will this lead to maximum gains? Probably not but it sure feels it will be the maximum gain for the minimal risk. then i could also stop checking this thread nightly, and take up painting or something.

I have some (4) DITM calls I bought a while ago at the 130 and 140 price points for jan/16 ...and am riding those to the end (as i plan to convert them to stock anyhow) then will be all stock and initiate plan above.

 

[SteveG3]

I could see a strategy where they keep it quiet until the X launch/announcement in July, then announce X70, and X105, and have the S70 and S105 immediately available. Perhaps finalized S85's are already the new S105 to minimize unhappiness for new customers (like the autopilot hw last year). Taking it a step further into awesome but very unlikely... all 85's since the 70D launch are actually sneaky 105's to be unlocked that night via firmware.

I think there's reasonably good chance of the scenario in the first sentence here. The rest of it, I don't see happening. Rather, I could see Tesla's "secret demand weapon" being a fleet sale with the likes of Hertz (over 3,000 rental locations in the U.S.), to soak up inventory of orphaned 85 kWh vehicles in production, or on route to delivery. That is, inventory created by people canceling on cars in production or in transit after seeing the announcement of a larger Model S battery. Tesla could pass on to Hertz savings in the form of forfeited deposits from those who cancelled (I'm not sure, but it may be that at some point along the production/delivery process the cost of cancellation goes beyond the $2,500 deposit). I doubt a large rental company like Hertz cares much about how each particular car in a large order is configured, and Tesla would in effect have its cars distributed across the country for people to test drive. This would obviously include the states that do not allow Tesla stores. It would be a demand weapon both in terms of moving out large numbers of slightly outdated inventory from cancellations, and in terms of making test drives possible for more people without Tesla stores or the use of dealerships, so in a sense as Elon put it, a response to the dealerships tactics (of course, for a couple of hundred dollars a day).

 

[FANGO]

If I had one share of stock for every time i read another random idea on what the demand secret weapon is definitely going to be and that it's definitely going to be announced tomorrow....

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Analyst Recommendation - James Albertine reiterates his $400 price target

as well as George Galliers at Evercore ISI is confirming his $320 PT. Back to Stifel and just to recall: James started on Sep 1, 2014 with his very first PT which since then he hasn't amended...

 

[Gerardf]

At the 8.24 time a peak of almost 100k shares in premarket. Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Real-Time Stock Quote - NASDAQ.com

That seems unusually high. Any special explanation ?

Also before that already going up nicely

 

[Bgarret]

At the 8.24 time a peak of almost 100k shares in premarket. Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Real-Time Stock Quote - NASDAQ.com

That seems unusually high. Any special explanation ?

Also before that already going up nicely

I was thinking the same thing....now up over 200k share volume...seems a lot of activity.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Self Generation Incentive Program - California

some interesting facts about the SGIP in California. Guess who's leading the rankings:smile:

 

[Gerardf]

some interesting facts about the SGIP in California. Guess who's leading the rankings:smile:

Wow, great info ! Thanks for sharing.

 

[Johan]

some interesting facts about the SGIP in California. Guess who's leading the rankings:smile:

It's interesting that Tesla did not share any of these numbers during the last earnings call or in the shareholder letter. I guess they still have a lot of aces up their sleeves.

Just as with ZEV credits though I think it's wise of Tesla to not focus to much on it, since it will inevitably lead to opponents claiming Tesla's business is built on government incentives.

 

[atang]

We goin' ta Sizzla! :biggrin:

 

[Cattledog]

I think there's reasonably good chance of the scenario in the first sentence here. The rest of it, I don't see happening. Rather, I could see Tesla's "secret demand weapon" being a fleet sale with the likes of Hertz (over 3,000 rental locations in the U.S.), to soak up inventory of orphaned 85 kWh vehicles in production, or on route to delivery. That is, inventory created by people canceling on cars in production or in transit after seeing the announcement of a larger Model S battery. Tesla could pass on to Hertz savings in the form of forfeited deposits from those who cancelled (I'm not sure, but it may be that at some point along the production/delivery process the cost of cancellation goes beyond the $2,500 deposit). I doubt a large rental company like Hertz cares much about how each particular car in a large order is configured, and Tesla would in effect have its cars distributed across the country for people to test drive. This would obviously include the states that do not allow Tesla stores. It would be a demand weapon both in terms of moving out large numbers of slightly outdated inventory from cancellations, and in terms of making test drives possible for more people without Tesla stores or the use of dealerships, so in a sense as Elon put it, a response to the dealerships tactics (of course, for a couple of hundred dollars a day).

I really like this thinking and hope something like this is in the works. If it's say 3,000 cars, that's about a $300M purchase by a Hertz. Not sure how much they spend annually on car purchases. They obviously wouldn't do 1/rental location, but 10 at LAX, 10 at SFO, Miami, etc. Maybe 200 each at DFW and Houston Intergalactic just to thumb it at the Texas Legislature.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Wow, great info ! Thanks for sharing.

I've done some snooping around the SGIP data as well, and posted my thoughts in the s Stationary Storage Investors thread, refer to the discussion following this post .

Hmm, I am wondering where these guys get their ideas? We've discussed it at TMC more than two weeks ago...

 

[Johan]

I've done some snooping around the SGIP data as well, and posted my thoughts in the s Stationary Storage Investors thread, refer to the discussion following this post .

Hmm, I am wondering where these guys get their ideas? We've discussed it at TMC more than two weeks ago...

Yeah first the "Tesla's battery pulls $800 million in first week" and now this. Bloomberg is using TMC as their news source for sure.

 

[Bgarret]

Yeah first the "Tesla's battery pulls $800 million in first week" and now this. Bloomberg is using TMC as their news source for sure.

It would at least increase both their accuracy and the quality of their journalism.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Yeah first the "Tesla's battery pulls $800 million in first week" and now this. Bloomberg is using TMC as their news source for sure.

They should give credit but I won't complain. We get the "news" first and get to act on it first and then everyone else gets educated. The more all the people know the less volatility we should see.

 

[sub]

Was it just the news above regarding the SGIP that caused the spike this morning? I don't see any other news. Now in the red, no sizzle just fizzle.