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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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ev-enthusiast
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Trying to find out more but the guy in the picture is a "service assistant/porter" for the Centinela SC. That's the first Model X they've had there. Not sure if it's to be delivered or worked on, but i suspect it's a Founders to be delivered new.
mmd
Active Member
Technically long, but I have sold calls many times, and also bought/sold puts & shares. I'm not a loyalist like some others here. If SP goes over 230, I might buy some 6-month puts or sell calls. IMO,the delivery of all Sig X by December is priced in. Since no price for production Model X yet, not likely more than 1500 X get delivered in Q4.
To Johan: 1-2% defective seat belts was my guess when I was thinking, these bolts are installed by robots. If programmed incorrectly or some other issue, I thought 1-2 weeks of production could have this issue. But after I read the posts that no defect in any other car so far, 2-minute inspections, and also read Curt's post carefully, I started thinking that Curt's explanation is quite likely. But please go by your own hunch.
Also noticed quite some activity in the CPO thread. Seems like quite a few big price drops 2 days ago.
Tesla Model S CPO Website - Now Live - Page 235
I've been told it's a brand new one. So they're definitely trickling out, even if they're not all being reported on TMC.
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Update: I'm hearing the VIN is F0034.
Mitch, yesterday a Model X signature customer in the 400s and one in the 800s posted about conversations with their DS which indicated that delivery would take place in December. I quote the 800 and something VIN holder below and I'm searching for the 400 something holder I saw posting yesterday.
Further, there's evidence that Model X vehicles are soon to be deployed to sales and service centers around the country. I quote EVger below:
Today, I received the first substantive news from Tesla about my reservation in more than two years. (I hold reservation #5xxx.) In response to my email to Tesla regarding the charging capacity of the Model X, I received a telephone call from Tesla. I was informed that I would be asked to configure by the end of the year and that a vehicle would be available for me to test drive in Florida prior to that time. "Production" models are expected to actually start to be produced starting in January 2016.
It’s hard to take Tesla's stated time line seriously, but they have now created some real expectations for me. I have some concerns about the windshield, doors, seats, etc. so I’m anxious to get some actual exposure to a Model X.
Further, there's evidence that Model X vehicles are soon to be deployed to sales and service centers around the country. I quote EVger below:
Today, I received the first substantive news from Tesla about my reservation in more than two years. (I hold reservation #5xxx.) In response to my email to Tesla regarding the charging capacity of the Model X, I received a telephone call from Tesla. I was informed that I would be asked to configure by the end of the year and that a vehicle would be available for me to test drive in Florida prior to that time. "Production" models are expected to actually start to be produced starting in January 2016.
It’s hard to take Tesla's stated time line seriously, but they have now created some real expectations for me. I have some concerns about the windshield, doors, seats, etc. so I’m anxious to get some actual exposure to a Model X.
Scott Ales
Member
I haven't checked the "Buy a Model S Today" section for a couple days now so I don't know when this went live, but for the first time ever you can actually filter to review only NEW cars. Meaning, demonstrators that have not been sold to retail customers yet. This is effectively Tesla's new car inventory. These are not zero mile cars but will count towards the NEW sales volume when sold. Additionally, because I have traded highline and luxury cars for the past 30 years and am well known in that community it is not uncommon for several people to call me on a specific unique car that someone is shopping. So typically, a retail customer might shop at several dealerships to trade in their car. Those dealerships will call wholesalers sometimes to get a "Buy Bid". Last week I was called on a 2014 P85D with 1k miles and a $130k sticker. After hearing from several dealers about the car I also heard from a Tesla store. I made an offer of $91k and the customer continued to shop the car around. Then I heard from another dealer friend about the car and he told me the hopeful seller would take $95k. My friend asked me what I thought it could be sold for. He ultimately agreed to take the car on consignment at $95k.
This means several things.
1. Tesla would not pay $95k.
2. The wholesale market would not pay $95k.
3. This situation is going to get very tricky in the coming months with so many MS trades for new MX deliveries.
Will Tesla want to take all those trades in house? What impact will that have on the P&L / Balance Sheet? Is that Capital spending good for the books? I also noticed a substantial amount of New Demos and CPO cars currently offered along with Dual Drive options. They are hitting their stride with this buying option and it will begin having a positive impact on profit. In a good way I believe. What remains to be seen is how the global market reacts to this higher volume of used / demo activity. There are also unrealized benefits to having more cars on the road and happy owners talking with the rest of the world. The only negative I can see from all the added activity for these next few months is the higher priced Model S cars will depreciate more than the lower optioned versions. Meaning, cars that sold new for $110k + and do not have Dual Drive are going to take the biggest hit. Any Dual Drive will hold its value well, less expensive when new versions will also be fine. There is an army of buyers for a good used MS in the $40k - $60k price range. So cars with really high miles (70k-100k) no matter the version or options will sell very well for the next several years. I have seen very few MS used cars in the wholesale market that sold in the $40k range and ZERO to date in the $30k range unless it was damaged. When people go to look at the M3 and see a used $130k (when new) Ms for the same price of $40k they will struggle with the decision. Especially since there will be documented 500k-800k mile version running up and down the road by then!
Another aspect with Tesla is that the wholesale and resale community do NOT follow the unique aspects of the Tesla evolution. They don't understand all the various changes, updates, options, battery sizes, and upgrades well enough to make good decisions. I've personally witnessed dealers buying a used car at a wholesale auction for more than they could have bought a similar or higher optioned car with less miles direct through the Tesla CPO program. As the owner of a 300 member highline trading platform where everyone knows I am a Tesla disciple, I receive 1-3 calls a week for guidance on valuing a used Tesla.
In all, I feel it is very positive for the future of the company and the mission. Just a bit tricky to buy and sell them used. Leasing and sharing programs will become more significant as a result of all this confusion and disruption in the old system.
I love it!
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Scott Ales
Member
I specifically remember curling up in the rear foot-well of my Mom and Dad's 1967 Ford Galaxie 500 with my ear on the drive-shaft tunnel. The drone of the drive-line putting me to sleep on the way home from Grandma and Grandpa's house in Maquoketa, Iowa to Davenport.
Of course, I survived!
McMuggets
Member
Great article pretty much confirming reasons for the seat belt recall:
Why Tesla isn't holding back on its big Model S recall - Yahoo Finance
Why Tesla isn't holding back on its big Model S recall - Yahoo Finance
jhm
Well-Known Member
Canadian oil capital, Alberta, unveils carbon tax, coal phase-out : Renew Economy
Alberta is getting serious about a carbon tax. Some of the proceeds will reimburse low to middle income families for the 7c/L on petrol. I hope this applies to EV owners as well.
Alberta is getting serious about a carbon tax. Some of the proceeds will reimburse low to middle income families for the 7c/L on petrol. I hope this applies to EV owners as well.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
stealthology
Member
What is everyone's thoughts on the upcoming Model 3 unveiling as a catalyst? Elon said they will begin accepting pre-orders then. My take is that the car will be pretty damn compelling, and if preorders go well Elon could announce reservation numbers shortly thereafter.
I remember Elon saying that the major difference (other than size) from the Model S to the model 3 is that the S would always be the leader in latest technologies. Other than that, the cars should be fairly similar.
I remember Elon saying that the major difference (other than size) from the Model S to the model 3 is that the S would always be the leader in latest technologies. Other than that, the cars should be fairly similar.
I think it will be a medium catalyst. product announcements, particularly ones that are telegraphed in advance as this one is, are weak stock movers. Financial news associated with being cash flow positive, or taking in a large number of cash deposits are stronger IMO. I would say a small catalyst, but this is arguable the most important product unveiling ever, only rivaling the model S.
Also, I am nervous it could be a negative. Some of the whispers about design decisions leave open the possibility that the car could have a "not for everyone" look. They showed on the model X that they are willing to do nervy, ahead of the curve designs. They could unveil a model 3 with a no-grill front and a conical rear and everyone could freak out about how ugly it is. The car will still be sold out for years, but the stock could suffer for it.
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