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[Spoiler Alert + Mild Speculation] Tesla has created a monster!
- Thread starter omgwtfbyobbq
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- Model 3
There area few potential reasons to software limit a higher spec drivetrain:
1. They got burned by overpromising the performance of the S. And worse... they discovered that the extremely high performance vehicles were blowing batteries (and maybe gearboxes) after a bunch of miles/years. They want to be a bit conservative.
2. They're almost certainly planning to improve the performance via software update, once they've got more real world data. And so they want to design the hardware to support that.
3. There will be a performance version of the 3. The drivetrain will have to be geometrically very similar. So, it could well be the the "high performance" powertrain will be the same as the regular one, but with upgraded cooling systems.
4. It's also possible that this drive unit is used as the small motor(s) in the S and X, again perhaps with an upgraded cooling system.
5. They've already said that they're using a bunch of the 3 motors to drive the upcoming highway rig.
1) maybe
2) if they overspec because of #1, then could possibly open up more capability when confident.
3) The conversation was about the ludicrous version. So we were already talking about the most performance 3.
4) still wouldn't make $ sense. SX volume a small % of 3
5) doubt it.
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2. Agree
3. My bad. But other points stand.
4. The incremental unit cost of building a single more capable gearmotor / inverter might be little enough that it makes sense to put slightly overspec'd units in the 3, and then to be able to use the same unit in the S/X, rather than maintaining a separate design. Of course I'm just speculating.
5. Actually Elon said that they were doing exactly that - at least for the prototype. For production, who knows?
Today a base Model S 100D makes 4.1 sec 0-60 and costs $97.5K. A P100D with 2.5 sec costs $140K
What do you think will happen if a Model 3 Performance with a similar range (~300 miles range) and a 3.0 sec costs only ~$80k ?
Demand for the Model S 100D would be hit hard. Only a few people that really need a bigger car would consider paying more ~$18k for the Model S. The P100D would be a even smaller niche if people had to pay $60k for just 0.5 sec of performance.
From a business perspective this doesn't make sense. Tesla profits much more from the Model S than from the Model 3 (cash not %).
A performance of 3.6 - 3.8 sec for the Model 3 protects the P100D (more than a full sec difference) and customers for the Model S100D would not be too unhappy too pay more because of the other S advantages and relative small difference on performance.
What do you think will happen if a Model 3 Performance with a similar range (~300 miles range) and a 3.0 sec costs only ~$80k ?
Demand for the Model S 100D would be hit hard. Only a few people that really need a bigger car would consider paying more ~$18k for the Model S. The P100D would be a even smaller niche if people had to pay $60k for just 0.5 sec of performance.
From a business perspective this doesn't make sense. Tesla profits much more from the Model S than from the Model 3 (cash not %).
A performance of 3.6 - 3.8 sec for the Model 3 protects the P100D (more than a full sec difference) and customers for the Model S100D would not be too unhappy too pay more because of the other S advantages and relative small difference on performance.
The M3 is $64,995 before options and sucks down just as much gas as a full sized pickup or SUV.
I don't think buyers are cross shopping the BMW M3 with the Tesla Model 3.
But I will bet that in urban traffic, the Tesla Model 3 gets the jump on the M3 every time. Turbo lag and a gearbox are not your friend in traffic.
I doubt most people are making their choice between a 3 and a S based on 0-60 performance. Most are based on the utility of the car for them. Hatchback, more storage, larger, air suspension, two screens, sun roof, faster AC/Level 2 charging, etc.
And who knows what else Tesla will come up with to differentiate the two.
e-FTW
New electron smell
Purchasing decisions are not always logical and objective. For cars, those decisions rarely are when talking about performance.
When I got my Subaru(s), I did not even consider the price delta with a base model, I was getting a WRX, and that was that. It's the little boy in me, that was going "wheeeeeeeee!" every time I drove the car. Can't price that.
If the Model 3 stays in the 3 second 0-60 range at the top end, pretty sure the P100DL will be just fine. At those price ranges, having the fastest thing out there has more importance than in the $35k-$40k price range. Make it high 3s, and let's call it a day.
I dint this sleuthing quite exciting, as it show what might be possible, and I want a performance model, for the same little boy reasons as stated above.
When I got my Subaru(s), I did not even consider the price delta with a base model, I was getting a WRX, and that was that. It's the little boy in me, that was going "wheeeeeeeee!" every time I drove the car. Can't price that.
If the Model 3 stays in the 3 second 0-60 range at the top end, pretty sure the P100DL will be just fine. At those price ranges, having the fastest thing out there has more importance than in the $35k-$40k price range. Make it high 3s, and let's call it a day.
I dint this sleuthing quite exciting, as it show what might be possible, and I want a performance model, for the same little boy reasons as stated above.
kingjamez
Member
I'd bet that Tesla would sell more than 3:1 of the Model 3 P"LR"D (or whatever it's called) compared to the S P100D. There are a lot more folks out there who can muster $80k than $140k. In that case, since the % margin is probably about the same, Tesla wouldn't really care from a $$ perspective, or may even start to prefer people buy the 3.
Given that Tesla has said their margin on the Model 3 is still in the 25% range, as soon as that assembly line gets up and running (through hell), the push for the S to be the end all of everything will no longer be a requirement since they can make so much money on Model 3.
-Jim
And by the end of next year they should be able to make ~5-10x the number of Model 3s than they can Model Ss. So I think it all makes perfect sense.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
If we figure the Model is 50% more expensive than the Model 3, wouldn't it all start to make sense when Model 3 sales are 50% greater than Model S sales ?
ccutrer
Active Member
It all starts to make sense when Model 3 sales * Model 3 margins * Model 3 average selling price > Model S sales * Model S margins * Model S average selling price. Or something like that. If the margins end up identical, and we're saying a Model S is 100% more (2x) expensive than a Model 3, then they have to sell 100% more (2x) Model 3s like you say. But margins are supposed to be thinner on the Model 3, so they'll have to sell more than 2x to be making the same net income. But supposedly still good margins. So maybe 2.5x-3x? But they should hit 5x easy within a year or two. Lots of gravy.
Supposedly Tesla is shooting for 20% instead of 25%, which would be a huge moneymaker for them if they sell as many 3s as demand suggests they will.
Tesla’s gross margin on the Model 3 could be a game changer in the auto industry
Tesla’s gross margin on the Model 3 could be a game changer in the auto industry
Yes, I see no reason why a P75D M3 shouldn't be quicker than a 600 pound heavier P100D MS
Talking past each other. It COULD. But they will probably preserve S performance superiority until new roadster, which will be in S price range.
Tesla said 25% gross margin for the Model 3 in the shareholder letter 2 weeks ago:
By the way, I have modeled the gross margins for each Model 3 trim level so that the average is 25%. In this model, AWD is 65% and the large battery version is 60.2% of sales based on model3tracker survey data.
In addition, it's important to remember that the Model S/X production lines are not efficient at all. According to this article, the S/X production is 7 times less efficient than it was when the Nummi factory was operated by Toyota and GM. Elon confirmed that the Model 3 line is a lot more automated. Listen here.
With the S/X, Tesla's gross margin is 27.9%. You can see this number in the latest shareholder letter on page 3 here. Therefore, it's not like they have a very different gross margin on the S/X that will be ruined if the Model 3 P80D matches Model S P85D's 3.1s 0-60 time.
I'm calculating ~38% gross margin for the Model 3 P80D. Therefore it makes perfect sense for Tesla to make the performance Model 3 as good as they can. The numbers look like this:
In the conference call, Elon repeated 25%. You can listen to it here.
By the way, I have modeled the gross margins for each Model 3 trim level so that the average is 25%. In this model, AWD is 65% and the large battery version is 60.2% of sales based on model3tracker survey data.
In addition, it's important to remember that the Model S/X production lines are not efficient at all. According to this article, the S/X production is 7 times less efficient than it was when the Nummi factory was operated by Toyota and GM. Elon confirmed that the Model 3 line is a lot more automated. Listen here.
With the S/X, Tesla's gross margin is 27.9%. You can see this number in the latest shareholder letter on page 3 here. Therefore, it's not like they have a very different gross margin on the S/X that will be ruined if the Model 3 P80D matches Model S P85D's 3.1s 0-60 time.
I'm calculating ~38% gross margin for the Model 3 P80D. Therefore it makes perfect sense for Tesla to make the performance Model 3 as good as they can. The numbers look like this:
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FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
The truth ... the Model 3 will not be allowed to eclipse the performance of the Model S regardless of what the dreamers want
JeffK
Well-Known Member
It's shouldn't be able to eclipse the P100D simply due to available power, but it should easily outperform the Model S100D.The truth ... the Model 3 will not be allowed to eclipse the performance of the Model S regardless of what the dreamers want
JeffK
Well-Known Member
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