Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[StealthP3D]

All the other things people claim motivate SUV/CUV purchases - passenger seating, cargo space, handling, ease of ingress/egress, price, fuel economy and safety - are just rationalizations.

One of the more popular reasons people buy SUV's - most non-SUV's are not available in AWD. There is this weird perception out there that AWD lends some kind of magical safety advantage when the weather gets bad. I've been driving all kinds of rigs for 40 years through all kinds of nasty weather and the kind of safety that comes from a vehicle remaining in control doesn't come from AWD, it comes from having appropriate tires for the conditions, and a good handling vehicle and a skilled driver. Take away the skilled driver and you still want the tires and the handling, not AWD! And an SUV that handles better than it's counterpart with a lower center of gravity doesn't really exist.

However, the perception that AWD adds significant inclement weather safety is not going away anytime soon and this gives Tesla a huge tailwind as their production volumes continue to ramp upwards. All Teslas will always be offered in an AWD version (if not only AWD). AWD does offer significant benefits in some applications but staying on the road in inclement weather is not one of them.

But now that you have my ear, maybe you can explain what kind of numb-nut says they bought an SUV for it's price, handling or fuel economy, three things that SUV's are NOT associated with?

 

[Fact Checking]

A look that conveys strength (aka safety) and rugged adventurism is paramount. All the other things people claim motivate SUV/CUV purchases - passenger seating, cargo space, handling, ease of ingress/egress, price, fuel economy and safety - are just rationalizations. Otherwise they'd buy minivans, which win by a landslide on all counts while offering the same ride height/seating position advantage.

So, let's estimate Model Y's market impact using my wildly popular Market Impact Score metric. SUV wannabes can score a maximum of 10 points on ride height and 20 points on rugged SUV look.

BMW X3 - 25 points. 10 for ride height + 15 for look (good 2-box shape, but more streamlined than rugged)

You lost me with the BMW X3: do you realize that ~80% of BMW drivers are male?

Yes, the aggressive look appeals to males, but I believe the Model Y will is a lot more unisex, and that more than doubles the addressable market.

 

[ReflexFunds]

I'm glad you asked. There are two main differences:

1. X3 is 9" taller (66" vs. 57")
2. X3 has the SUV/CUV look (aka two-box shape)​

Ride height/seating position is important, but the look is what really matters. A look that conveys strength (aka safety) and rugged adventurism is paramount. All the other things people claim motivate SUV/CUV purchases - passenger seating, cargo space, handling, ease of ingress/egress, price, fuel economy and safety - are just rationalizations. Otherwise they'd buy minivans, which win by a landslide on all counts while offering the same ride height/seating position advantage.

So, let's estimate Model Y's market impact using my wildly popular Market Impact Score metric. SUV wannabes can score a maximum of 10 points on ride height and 20 points on rugged SUV look.

BMW X3 - 25 points. 10 for ride height + 15 for look (good 2-box shape, but more streamlined than rugged)
BMW 3 Series Hatchback - 2 points. Only 2 inches taller and looks almost identical to the base sedan
Tesla Model Y- 5 points. It's 5 inches taller, but also looks almost identical to the base sedan

So there you have it, scientific proof that Model Y's market impact will be a bit more than BMW's Series 3 Hatchback but much, much less than the X3

I do hope Tesla also launches a "rugged SUV" on the Pickup platform (and hopefully at a similar time), but I do think the size, height and cargo space of SUV/CUVs is genuinely important to a lot of customers and Model Y does address a significant new market missed by Model 3. Of course, customers also want their car to look good which is very hard to achieve with a minivan but delivered by Model Y.

 

[StealthP3D]

No, it was a prototype with a new powertrain thats not the same powertrain available today.

I do wish Tesla would have brought a present Raven Model S Performance to the Ring and timed it. Why they didn't is up to speculation.

It needed a much better suspension to compete at those speeds with a full-on sportscar like the Taycan. Yes, I know, the Taycan is a four-door sports sedan (but it's really a sportscar). It wouldn't be a matter of being 5 seconds behind, it would have been 30 seconds or more slower and that's not a good look even if they are two different classes of car. Which is why I'm loving the Plaid version.

One thing I've not seen mentioned is this Plaid version Model S probably pushes the Roadster II back significantly, perhaps a full year. Sad, but I don't see anyway around it. I do think this was a better path to leverage their existing R&D and gain development expertise for the Roadster II. The Roadster II will consume HUGE resources to do properly and the return is mostly in good publicity. The Plaid Model S will be even better publicity. That's because it won't be an unobtanium quarter-million-dollar supercar, it will still be a family sedan.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I do hope Tesla also launches a "rugged SUV" on the Pickup platform (and hopefully at a similar time), but I do think the size, height and cargo space of SUV/CUVs is genuinely important to a lot of customers and Model Y does address a significant new market missed by Model 3. Of course, customers also want their car to look good which is very hard to achieve with a minivan but delivered by Model Y.

Im getting mine for basically that reason. X is too expensive and 3 is too small.

 

[StealthP3D]

Model S is not a $130-150K car

True, not many people will be buying the $225,000 version of the Porsche Taycan either. But that won't stop those who buy the $150,000 version from driving a car with such a performance pedigree.

The Plaid version of the Model S will sell in small volumes compared to more pedestrian Model S offerings but you can bet plenty of Model S will be sold based upon the Plaid pedigree and viral videos. Tesla has a real winner here.

 

[StealthP3D]

While the M3P is better than most gas cars on the track, I believe it could be even better - if Tesla wanted to. I think the Taycan will give them the motivation to work towards that goal.

Any car could be "better" if the manufacturer wanted it to be. The M3P can already beat practically any car (including many supercars) on a tight road coarse that doesn't involve triple-digit speeds.

 

[FreqFlyer]

I do hope Tesla also launches a "rugged SUV" on the Pickup platform (and hopefully at a similar time), but I do think the size, height and cargo space of SUV/CUVs is genuinely important to a lot of customers and Model Y does address a significant new market missed by Model 3. Of course, customers also want their car to look good which is very hard to achieve with a minivan but delivered by Model Y.

I would bet on a SUV version of the Pickup. Will be easier and cheaper to build than the Model X (would be an excellent next gen X) and would be a big seller with no competition.

 

[FreqFlyer]

It needed a much better suspension to compete at those speeds with a full-on sportscar like the Taycan. Yes, I know, the Taycan is a four-door sports sedan (but it's really a sportscar). It wouldn't be a matter of being 5 seconds behind, it would have been 30 seconds or more slower and that's not a good look even if they are two different classes of car. Which is why I'm loving the Plaid version.

One thing I've not seen mentioned is this Plaid version Model S probably pushes the Roadster II back significantly, perhaps a full year. Sad, but I don't see anyway around it. I do think this was a better path to leverage their existing R&D and gain development expertise for the Roadster II. The Roadster II will consume HUGE resources to do properly and the return is mostly in good publicity. The Plaid Model S will be even better publicity. That's because it won't be an unobtanium quarter-million-dollar supercar, it will still be a family sedan.

I think the Plaid trim will be available for order next year, I do not believe the Plaid trim will be delivered to the public this time next year. We will see.

 

[Artful Dodger]

We don't know that they are unable to or if they just chose not to at this time so as to not deprecate all of their ICE offerings before they can make money selling EVs.

huh, lessee:

• 5,500 lb kerb weight - check
• 250 KW charging
  • failed to deliver promised spec of 350 KW
    
  • infact optional extra $$ option for above 50KW
  • very limited availability if supported at all
• smaller than a Model S inside; much smaller 2+2 vs 5 seater
  
• less technology:
  • OTA updates means fast fixes for any issues
    
  • entertainment and convenience features
    
  • Autopilot and safety features
  • seemless charging experience; widely available
  • FSD upgrade path with compatible hdw back to Oct 2016

None of these items are easily deployable by Porsche, or outright outside of their control like 3rd-part battery cell specs.

TL;dr We know with high confidence that Porsche are unable to build a competitor to the Model S at this time, or within the next 3 years at the soonest. Plaid will be here in 1 year. Porsche is getting further behind.

 

[Prunesquallor]

It sure will and we shall.

BTW You do know the car is being produced in China in a new factory by a subsidiary of Geely?

This isn't Nio or Faraday Future.

Interesting snippet from today's Electrek Polestar 2 article:

"Volvo is even selling the cars direct from the company online, with only a select few stores open in city retail spaces rather than dealer lots, similar to Tesla’s retail model."
Polestar 2 price finalized in Europe: €59k, competitive with Tesla Model 3 - Electrek

If true, it seems Volvo recognizes and is addressing a big issue with traditional auto EV retail (at least in the US): the unwillingness of dealerships to sell/service EVs. I wonder if (again in the US) the dealership associations are going to show the outright hostility toward the Polestar that they have toward Tesla.

 

[KarenRei]

Polestar 2 price finalized in Europe: €59k, competitive with Tesla Model 3 - Electrek

Wait, "€59k" is supposed to be "competitive with Tesla Model 3"? They clearly are going for the LR with that pack size, but:

• 300kW power - Model 3 AWD (€51,4k) = 307kW; Model 3 Performance (€55,4k) = 353kW.
• Efficiency: judging by other similar vehicles, probably ~15% less than the Model 3s, give or take and depending on the variant
• Range: Based on that, and the similar battery pack, probably ~15% less (WLTP will minimize the difference, EPA will maximize the difference)
• Peak charge power = 150kW; Model 3s = 250kW
• In terms of peak range-per-minute-charging: half of the Model 3s
• Charging networks: CCS Only (all Model 3s: Supercharger or CSS)

I mean, if you want a Chinese-made Volvo-branded Model 3 knockoff with inferior specs and higher pricing coming out a year from now... I guess this may be the car for you.

 

[Prunesquallor]

• Charging networks: CCS Only (all Model 3s: Supercharger or CSS)

Not in NA . I do wish Tesla would build a CCS adapter for us. I hate to admit it but around here, combined EVGo and Electrify America are expanding faster than Superchargers.

 

[KarenRei]

Not in NA . I do wish Tesla would build a CCS adapter for us. I hate to admit it but around here, combined EVGo and Electrify America are expanding faster than Superchargers.

My pricing figures were also in Euros You may not get CCS, but you also get cheaper Teslas - so you win some and you lose some.

I am curious how many EVGo and Electrify America chargers have been built there recently. Some quick checking on Supercharge.info shows 4 new stations with 65 stalls / 33 chargers built in Texas in the past two months. How are EVGo and Electrify America doing?

Every time I look at the pricing scheme for Electrify America, I shake my head. I wonder how bad EVGo's is...

ED: Is EVGo only 50kW? Plugshare is making it look that way. So no better than CHAdeMO.

ED2: I'm not sure how to see what chargers were built when, but adding them up manually from the Electrify America map, I can see that they only have 95 CCS stalls / chargers in the state total. They spread them out a lot more than Tesla does with Superchargers, but the most common number of CCS stalls / chargers per station is 3.

ED3: Looks like they began opening in early May. If one assumes a relatively constant rate, then that's 95 CCS / 5 months * 2 = 38 stalls / chargers per two months. So a significantly slower stall buildout rate (38 vs 65) but a slightly faster charger buildout rate (38 vs. 33) than Tesla in Texas.

ED4: Although, that's Superchargers for the past two months in Texas. It looks like Texas had been mostly stagnant for the three months prior, with respect to Superchargers - a fair bit of new construction but not openings. I wonder if the under-construction ones are sitting around waiting for V3s to show up, like the Canadian ones are.

 

[heltok]

Wait, "€59k" is supposed to be "competitive with Tesla Model 3"? They clearly are going for the LR with that pack size, but:

• 300kW power - Model 3 AWD (€51,4k) = 307kW; Model 3 Performance (€55,4k) = 353kW.
• Efficiency: judging by other similar vehicles, probably ~15% less than the Model 3s, give or take and depending on the variant
• Range: Based on that, and the similar battery pack, probably ~15% less (WLTP will minimize the difference, EPA will maximize the difference)
• Peak charge power = 150kW; Model 3s = 250kW
• In terms of peak range-per-minute-charging: half of the Model 3s
• Charging networks: CCS Only (all Model 3s: Supercharger or CSS)

I mean, if you want a Chinese-made Volvo-branded Model 3 knockoff with inferior specs and higher pricing coming out a year from now... I guess this may be the car for you.

It’s a great try, probably the closest the competition has gotten to compete with the Model 3. Still far behind on every important metric and one year until production. By then who knows what specs the Model 3 will have, maybe dry electrode Jeff Dahn cells and actual FSD. And I doubt Volvo will have enough sales to offset development costs. It’s not easy competing with Tesla today. But still, great try and better than not trying!

 

[Prunesquallor]

My pricing figures were also in Euros You may not get CCS, but you also get cheaper Teslas - so you win some and you lose some.

I am curious how many EVGo and Electrify America chargers have been built there recently. Some quick checking on Supercharge.info shows 4 new stations with 51 stalls / 25 chargers built in Texas in the past two months. How are EVGo and Electrify America doing?

Every time I look at the pricing scheme for Electrify America, I shake my head. I wonder how bad EVGo's is...

ED: Is EVGo only 50kW?? Plugshare is making it look that way.

Here’s what it looks like in my Theater of Operations according to
PlugShare. Edit: (And yes, every EVGo I’ve looked at is 50 kW and $0.30/min . Obviously a last resort).

Superchargers:

Combined EVGo, EA and Blink CCS:

 

[KarenRei]

Here’s what it looks like in my Theater of Operations according to
PlugShare. Edit: (And yes, every EVGo I’ve looked at is 50 kW. Obviously a last resort).

Superchargers:
View attachment 462822

Combined EVGo, EA and Blink CCS:

View attachment 462823

Don't confuse the number of sites with the number of stalls Each one of those sites is much smaller than a typical Supercharger station.

That said, see the above edits to my above post.

 

[scaesare]

I agree. They co


Tesla is going after Toyota & VW, not M-B & BMW

From a company, perspective, certainly.

But on a model basis, they have pitted the 3 in particular against similar class cars from MB, BMW, & Audi multiple times.

 

[RobStark]

Interesting snippet from today's Electrek Polestar 2 article:

"Volvo is even selling the cars direct from the company online, with only a select few stores open in city retail spaces rather than dealer lots, similar to Tesla’s retail model."
Polestar 2 price finalized in Europe: €59k, competitive with Tesla Model 3 - Electrek

If true, it seems Volvo recognizes and is addressing a big issue with traditional auto EV retail (at least in the US): the unwillingness of dealerships to sell/service EVs. I wonder if (again in the US) the dealership associations are going to show the outright hostility toward the Polestar that they have toward Tesla.

I am pretty sure "Polestar Places" will be franchised.

They are going to ape Tesla stores and are going to be given wide regions. So people don't learn/take up time of one "dealership" but buy in another. When customer orders online, the "Polestar Place" in the customer area will be given commission. And be responsible for service/questions etc. Salespeople will be given some "shared commissions". Tesla does or did that once too. A complete soft sell experience.

Saturn had a similar model. Franchised stores where every customer paid the same, no discounts. And a soft sell experience. When the cars launched they were competitive. They were not significantly updated as the years went by until they were completely uncompetitive and finally GM bankruptcy killed the brand.

Generally, people pay more for hatchbacks. Polestar 2 will be a hatchback and will offer either vegan or leather interiors. Not everyone wants a vegan interior nor go through the expense of getting a custom leather interior at a tuner.

I wouldn't want a Chinese made car but that doesn't seem to be a problem for the Volvo S 90 or XC 90, Volvo's biggest most expensive sedan and SUV. Neither for the Chinese made Buick Encore before trade war tariffs were placed on it.

 

[Doggydogworld]

But now that you have my ear, maybe you can explain what kind of numb-nut says they bought an SUV for it's price, handling or fuel economy, three things that SUV's are NOT associated with?

That's where the CUV comes in - SUV look with more car-like handling, fuel economy and price.

Don't get me wrong -- the Y isn't an Edsel. People won't shun it. Model 3 is an attractive car and the Y is just a taller 3. It will win over a lot of 3 buyers and some used X buyers. Plus some who wouldn't have bought either - Model Y is literally the Tesla they've been waiting for. But it doesn't look like a SUV, so I don't see it bringing in a lot of buyers from the ICE world.

Maybe I'm wrong.