Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Did notice the link in my previous comments to Foxconn's reveal of 3 prototypes. It's clear they're exploring how to become an auto manufacturer, too.

Foxconn unveils prototypes as it pushes to become an electric-car maker.

The company known for making iPhones presented three electric vehicles that can serve as a basis for working with car companies.

www.nytimes.com

>But he said legacy automakers faced an even mightier challenge: They lack expertise in software and computer chips, both of which are important as cars acquire more digital smarts. That makes Foxconn’s background in consumer electronics an advantage, Mr. Liu said.

It obvious that auto manufacturers can't do software at scale, and so the software giants (with their high margins) will take the wheel as soon as a few car makers come near bankruptcy. Like Google with Motorola back in 2012. They'll let their partners / acquisition targets remain responsible for all NVH / safety issues (things will be easier with EV and better tech, I see no major hurdle).

The time has not yet come, but we'll soon see Google, Apple, Amazon, Xioami & co force their way into the industry. That's why they never even tried to bring home their overseas cash. Few will try the full vertical integration strategy, but the rest will have no choice but to play the horizontal game (à la AOSP), especially those who will be bailed out. The profits is in the robotaxi (FSD), not battery / car building so they're waiting for the right moment when the distressed car makers will need Big Tech to save them from Tesla's.

Too much hand-waving. Foxconn's current "partner" is Lordstown Motors, who isn't exactly a legacy automaker. It's too early for you to declare, "we'll soon see 'tech companies'... force their way into the industry".

2023 is too early for them. Right now, Volvo (as supported by Geely), Jaguar (as supported by Tata), and Rivian are more likely competition. BYD and NIO are the runners-up, since they actually have built EV's, but are still working out their bugs. Check out Byorn Nyland's ES8 review to see what kind of gremlins still need to be worked out.

 

[wdolson]

Did notice the link in my previous comments to Foxconn's reveal of 3 prototypes. It's clear they're exploring how to become an auto manufacturer, too.

Foxconn unveils prototypes as it pushes to become an electric-car maker.

The company known for making iPhones presented three electric vehicles that can serve as a basis for working with car companies.

www.nytimes.com

>But he said legacy automakers faced an even mightier challenge: They lack expertise in software and computer chips, both of which are important as cars acquire more digital smarts. That makes Foxconn’s background in consumer electronics an advantage, Mr. Liu said.

It obvious that auto manufacturers can't do software at scale, and so the software giants (with their high margins) will take the wheel as soon as a few car makers come near bankruptcy. Like Google with Motorola back in 2012. They'll let their partners / acquisition targets remain responsible for all NVH / safety issues (things will be easier with EV and better tech, I see no major hurdle).

The time has not yet come, but we'll soon see Google, Apple, Amazon, Xioami & co force their way into the industry. That's why they never even tried to bring home their overseas cash. Few will try the full vertical integration strategy, but the rest will have no choice but to play the horizontal game (à la AOSP), especially those who will be bailed out. The profits is in the robotaxi (FSD), not battery / car building so they're waiting for the right moment when the distressed car makers will need Big Tech to save them from Tesla's.

The legacy automakers used to have their electronics designed in house. I once knew someone who designed the ICs that went into Ford's infotainment systems. About 15-20 years ago all the legacy automakers slimmed down their operations keeping what they considered most important in house and farming out everything else.

Most manufacturers kept final assembly, engines, and transmissions in house and had suppliers do everything else. Now 2 out of 3 of those technologies are obsolescent and the manufacturers are scrambling to adapt to the new reality.

 

[Buckminster]

 

[ohmman]

Today I set up my Rivian test drive for November 9th. I'll definitely post some thoughts and photos after I've had the opportunity. I'm looking forward to it.

 

[RobStark]

As per the ammendment to Rivian's S-1: "as of October 22, 2021, we produced 56 R1Ts and delivered 42 R1Ts"

Per Elon, Rivian is more than halfway there to a justifiable $80B valuation.

 

[RobStark]

 

[Knightshade]

As per the ammendment to Rivian's S-1: "as of October 22, 2021, we produced 56 R1Ts and delivered 42 R1Ts"

Per Elon, Rivian is more than halfway there to a justifiable $80B valuation.

I seem to recall something about production being hard

 

[RobStark]

I seem to recall something about production being hard

We shall see if Rivian R1T and R1S ramp up is closer to a normal 6 months for an all new vehicle.

Or closer to 14 months a la Model 3 and Alien Dreadnaught attempt.

 

[uselesslogin]

Hey look my 7 year old thread is still on the first page. Sorry, nothing productive to say, just getting nostalgic as we all see new highs in our accounts today. This was meant to be a safe space to get away from the general Tesla competition thread which had somehow turned into a thread on fuel cell vehicles. Good times, good times...

 

[RobStark]

The scuttlebutt is that the Rivian IPO will have different class of shares.

The bottom line being that while RJ will have a small ownership position he will still have control of the company.

 

[Gauss Guzzler]

Hey look my 7 year old thread is still on the first page. This was meant to be a safe space to get away from the general Tesla competition thread which had somehow turned into a thread on fuel cell vehicles. Good times, good times...

I can't believe that some people still though fuel cells were a thing just a mere 7 years ago? What is it about hydrogen that people just don't seem to get?

 

[RobStark]

XPeng Announces 480 kW Chargers And 800V SiC EV Platform

XPeng, one of the Chinese EV start-ups that storms the EV market, recently held its annual Tech Day, announcing several new technologies.

insideevs.com

 

[RobStark]

 

[Doggydogworld]

They're garnishing an obsolete design with buzzwords. BYD's Blade is much more impressive. And LFP is the future in Canoo's segments.

 

[RobStark]

They're garnishing an obsolete design with buzzwords. BYD's Blade is much more impressive. And LFP is the future in Canoo's segments.

When will BYD start selling a futuristic microbus in the USA with 250+ miles of EPA range for less than $35k?

I know Canoo might fail before they get out of the blocks but they seem to have a good plan to start selling its microbus in Q4 2022.

 

[Buckminster]

Not a Tesla killer but could be a serious entry to the market: Beware - Electrek.
Toyota unveils its first all-electric car: the bZ4X, an electric SUV packed with cool features

 

[Takumi]

Not a Tesla killer but could be a serious entry to the market: Beware - Electrek.
Toyota unveils its first all-electric car: the bZ4X, an electric SUV packed with cool features

Is it better than their ICE offering? Where's the battery supply commitment necessary for volume production?

I see this as hand-waving, but at least this tells me that they are not ignoring Tesla. The question of how fast can they turn their ship around still remains.

 

[Discoducky]

Hey look my 7 year old thread is still on the first page. Sorry, nothing productive to say, just getting nostalgic as we all see new highs in our accounts today. This was meant to be a safe space to get away from the general Tesla competition thread which had somehow turned into a thread on fuel cell vehicles. Good times, good times...

And I remember when you opened the thread. Not sure of my exact thoughts, but I once thought that by at least 2020 competition would have arrived. Alas, it has not and nothing (and I cannot believe it), but nothing has yet shipped that competes (objectively or subjectively). I wish it weren't the case however. I thought the Taycan, Polestar 2 or maybe ID.4, but nope. Ugh, the Mach E was a huge disappointment (that screen wheel makes my skin crawl being a former tech product manager).

Here's to hoping the first Lucid and Rivian owners are happy and we can do an apples to apples comparison.

I'm predicting that the Ford Lightning will be a train wreck (and that is optimistic as opposed to a dumpster fire which was/is the Bolt). Still wondering how it could be LG's fault when Tesla ships LG batteries (me thinks there is more to that story...time will tell as it continues to develop which I think could take at least another year)

No other car on the horizon even looks promising to me. Again, wish that wasn't true.

 

[RobStark]

And I remember when you opened the thread. Not sure of my exact thoughts, but I once thought that by at least 2020 competition would have arrived. Alas, it has not and nothing (and I cannot believe it), but nothing has yet shipped that competes (objectively or subjectively). I wish it weren't the case however. I thought the Taycan, Polestar 2 or maybe ID.4, but nope. Ugh, the Mach E was a huge disappointment (that screen wheel makes my skin crawl being a former tech product manager).

Here's to hoping the first Lucid and Rivian owners are happy and we can do an apples to apples comparison.

I'm predicting that the Ford Lightning will be a train wreck (and that is optimistic as opposed to a dumpster fire which was/is the Bolt). Still wondering how it could be LG's fault when Tesla ships LG batteries (me thinks there is more to that story...time will tell as it continues to develop which I think could take at least another year)

No other car on the horizon even looks promising to me. Again, wish that wasn't true.

• Separately, Toyota announced today that it will spend $3.4 billion to develop battery production and build hybrid and electric vehicles in the U.S. Toyota will be pairing with Toyota Tsusho on a lithium-ion-battery plant to open by 2025.

Toyota, Stellantis Spending Big on North American EV Battery Production

Separate announcements today show both automakers are preparing for mass production of electric vehicles and their batteries in the U.S.

www.caranddriver.com

Toyota is spending an additional $10B for RoW by 2030. Not a lot relative to VW, GM, Ford, Stellantis but something.

CEO Jim Farley says demand for Mach-e is ~200k/year. Capacity is more like 50k-60k. Trying to get more batteries before their GF are up and running. Like every one else. Reservations for Lightning are 160k. Capacity is 80k/year. Again new facility for next generation electric pickup truck being built next to new Ford GF.

Tesla's US market share was 80% last year and 66% in the first half of this year.

 

[Knightshade]

Most of that Toyota capacity (like 80% of all new models from the press release) will be hybrids though.

Toyota planning to grab as much of that EV rebate $ as possible- slap a 10kwh battery and a cheap electric motor, made in the US, into a gas car and suddenly it's $4500 cheaper for the customer for a LOT less than $4500 in parts without having to actually find a large battery supply.

With that bit in the legislation pure-gas vehicles are gonna virtually disappear from the market next couple of years, sadly mostly replaced by hybrids... the futon of cars.