Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[GWord]

No, FSD does not "work fairly well" in any context or region. Some influencers are able to edit together enough minutes of well-worn routes around the Fremont factory to make a monetizable YouTube video, but it's still nothing more than an impressive and promising experiment that does not yet have any real valuable function other than the ability to sometimes change lanes under diligent human supervision without incident.

Uh, yeah, I get that you are emotional about the subject but I can’t see how you are qualified to claim FSD doesn’t have any scenario in any context or any region where it functions well. In fact you even say in your own reply that “influencers” are able to tease out good performance in some specific context and region. Most of us have experienced at least a few instances where it worked acceptably.

 

[Knightshade]

Short term the solution here is find a way of making Model 3 qualify for the IRA if possible,

Not possible to qualify them for the individual IRA credit without slashing Model Y production deeply-- there's simply no other qualifying batteries to put in the 3 in the US to do that.

The nearest they could do is changing their long-standing policy and allow people to buy leased vehicles-- that's exactly what Hyundai/Kia do to "qualify" their cars for $7500 off via the IRA without them actually qualifying under the individual tax credit.

No, FSD does not "work fairly well" in any context or region.

It does though- if you mean an a surprisingly solid L2 ADAS. I use it all the time and it stays on/works well enough 95% of that time.

Most of the other 5% is my disengaging for the comfort of other drivers because I know it's going to do an upcoming thing too slowly for the people behind me. If there's nobody behind me I just let it do it slowly, I'm in no hurry.

There's certainly still enough left in the remaining 5% I'm not going to stop paying attention- so it's still miles away from "robotaxi" but for what it's sold as today it works quite well most of the time around here anyway and I'm always annoyed when I have to drive any vehicle without it as being a measurably inferior experience.

 

[navguy12]

Hyundai undercuts Tesla Model 3 by $9,300 with 2024 IONIQ 6 special cash offer

With a new special cash offer, the 2024 Hyundai IONIQ 6 can be significantly cheaper to buy than the upgraded...

electrek.co

Short term the solution here is find a way of making Model 3 qualify for the IRA if possible,

IONIQ 6 might not yet be available in sufficient volumes to be a major problem.

Long term, more competition and lower priced EVs seem inevitable. That is good for the mission, but does present some challenges for Tesla.

if V12 if FSD is good enough for Robotaxis soon, that might be great timing...

From one of the comments:

Finding a lot of dealers within driving distance of me are adding a +$7500 market adjustment. Nope.

My first reaction to this story, based on real world experience with Hyundai/Kia EV sales practices in Canada: the product is never available…and once it is, the dealer surcharges drive up the actual out-the-door costs to a level higher than the similar Tesla product.

 

[heltok]

Polestar Electric Car Sales Disappointed In Q4 2023 With A 39% Decrease

Polestar announced that its global electric car deliveries during the fourth quarter of 2023 amounted to approximately 12,800 units (down 39% year-over-year).

insideevs.com

 

[wdolson]

Not possible to qualify them for the individual IRA credit without slashing Model Y production deeply-- there's simply no other qualifying batteries to put in the 3 in the US to do that.

The nearest they could do is changing their long-standing policy and allow people to buy leased vehicles-- that's exactly what Hyundai/Kia do to "qualify" their cars for $7500 off via the IRA without them actually qualifying under the individual tax credit.




It does though- if you mean an a surprisingly solid L2 ADAS. I use it all the time and it stays on/works well enough 95% of that time.

Most of the other 5% is my disengaging for the comfort of other drivers because I know it's going to do an upcoming thing too slowly for the people behind me. If there's nobody behind me I just let it do it slowly, I'm in no hurry.

There's certainly still enough left in the remaining 5% I'm not going to stop paying attention- so it's still miles away from "robotaxi" but for what it's sold as today it works quite well most of the time around here anyway and I'm always annoyed when I have to drive any vehicle without it as being a measurably inferior experience.

For complete driverless operation the car has to be able to manage to do something safe in every possible situation and for driving city streets there are lots of edge conditions. Weather is one factor, then there are people doing stupid things around the car, and then there are also people who might want to do deliberate things to interfere with the car.

Waymo has driverless cars, but they are in very limited, geofenced areas and the cars are monitored all the time by technicians who can step in and drive the car remotely if need be.

A true robotaxi is not in constant contact with home base. It is fully autonomous like a human driven taxi is. A human driven taxi is in contact with home base, but nobody at the home base is capable of taking over and driving the car if the human driver quits driving for some reason.

I compare it to commercial aircraft. Autopilots have made being an airline pilot pretty boring. You program the computer and watch the plane fly itself for the most part. But regulators still require two pilots because there are always conditions where the autopilot can't handle things. Back a few years ago all the 737 MAX planes were grounded worldwide because the autopilots were causing the planes to climb too sharply and they stalled. The first time it happened was an averted disaster because the alert pilot took over and righted the plane before anything bad happened. That pilot tried to warn regulators, but nobody paid attention because nothing bad happened. The next two the pilots didn't react in time and the planes crashed.

I've seen stories here on the forum of FSD doing crazy things and either almost causing an accident, or actually causing an accident.

Back to the topic, the competition has their own system, but nobody is fully autonomous yet. And it's possible that fully autonomous robotaxis will never be a thing.

 

[MC3OZ]

To further clarify my earlier comments, even ignoring FSD, there are a lot of things that Tesla currently does better than most car makes and that translates into a more efficient car, higher margins, or a better product.

The better product gap is the easiest gap to close, because different customers want different things and there will always be things that a Tesla Model doesn't do well.

All gaps can be closed in the end, but that will not be a quick process, it is likely to be an incremental process.

Tesla will keep innovating adding new gaps but in the long run the gaps will become smaller less important, given time competitors can probably copy almost as fast a Tesla can innovate, and the return on innovation may diminish.

For FSD and competitor solutions it is important to "peek-behind-the-curtain" and judge if a solution is on a path that might deliver working Robotaxis. Outside of Tesla some "sensor-heavy" Chinese solutions achieving reasonable success, with more sensor hardware, more in vehicle compute, and more electricity consumption.

Then we need to step back and look at the business model:- How quickly and cheaply can a large Robotaxi fleet be assembled?

A large fleet is essential to providing good customer service and a good price, and it allows fixed costs and R&D costs to be spread over a larger base.

A Chinese FSD competitor in China can definitely happen, perhaps that Chinese competitor can get a foothold on some other countries, in part because they may get backing from the Chinese government..

Most FSD solutions can become "driver-assist" solutions, but don't scale to a Robotaxi solution that can compete with a large fleet, with efficient vehicles on a low cost base, with smart fleet management software.

We already know that Tesla is working on all of the software needed for FSD, vehicle, customer app, fleet management, etc.

The total vision and the total business plan for Robotaxis is ultimately what is important, assuming the FSD software is eventually "good-enough".

Should FSD not occur, the competition and Tesla will eventually converge around similar products. and Tesla will need to be better at manufacturing to eek out higher margins. Should it happen, FSD definitely changes the game.

 

[MP3Mike]

Fisker Ocean having significant teething problems:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1747332935420719305

 

[Doggydogworld]

Waymo has driverless cars, but they are in very limited, geofenced areas and the cars are monitored all the time by technicians who can step in and drive the car remotely if need be.

Remote monitors can't drive the cars. Lots of discussion about this and other relevant facts on the Waymo thread.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

"Chinese car companies were the "most competitive" and "will have significant success outside of China, depending on what kind of tariffs or trade barriers are established," Musk said on a post-earnings...
"If there are no trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world," he said. "They're extremely good."

Musk: Chinese EV firms will 'demolish' rivals without trade barriers

SAN FRANCISCO - Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on Wednesday Chinese automakers will "demolish" global rivals without trade barriers, underscoring the heat the United States electric vehicle (EV) market leader faces from the likes of BYD (Build Your Dreams), who are racing to expand worldwide.

www.bangkokpost.com

 

[RobStark]

So I configured my ideal Macan Turbo EV today

No upcharge paint, wheels or HUD($2,500). Not a fan of "Porsche" branding anywhere/everywhere.

Total came to $126k.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Fisker Ocean having significant teething problems:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1747332935420719305

Fisker started deliveries? Lol

Polestar announced they're laying off 450 employees, or 15% of their labor force.

 

[Christine69420]

Polestar is laying off 15% of their employees:

Here in Sweden, we have posted a notice. The background is partly that the new business plan we presented in November, where we aim to deliver approximately 160,000 cars by 2025 and increase our profitability and also reduce our external financing needs. In order to achieve the plan, we need to adapt the size of the business. In part, there are still challenging market conditions.

The downsizing is only for employees and not production staff, according to Theo Kjellberg. There are approximately 3,000 employees globally, of which 1,600 are in Sweden - where 250 are notified in Sweden and a total of approximately 450 people.

Need to sell more cars

In May, Polestar was forced to notify 170 officials since the flagship, Polestar 3, was delayed. Then one would have had to lower the forecast for cars sold in 2023 from 80,000 to 60,000-70,000 cars. But in the end, sales for 2023 landed at less than 55,000 cars.


Source in Swedish: https://www.gp.se/ekonomi/polestar-varslar-15-procent-av-personalen-behover-minska-kostnaderna.53dc504b-5660-4bb7-8447-ea46c3ea241e

 

[KJD]

In May, Polestar was forced to notify 170 officials since the flagship, Polestar 3, was delayed. Then one would have had to lower the forecast for cars sold in 2023 from 80,000 to 60,000-70,000 cars. But in the end, sales for 2023 landed at less than 55,000 cars.

Today I did an online chat with Polestar and they told me that the Polestar 3 was in production now and that the goal was customer deliveries in April. Do you think that is true ?

They also said that starting in June the cars would include an NACS adapter for the Tesla supercharge stations.

 

[Christine69420]

Today I did an online chat with Polestar and they told me that the Polestar 3 was in production now and that the goal was customer deliveries in April. Do you think that is true ?

They also said that starting in June the cars would include an NACS adapter for the Tesla supercharge stations.

I have no idea. I do not follow Polestar.

 

[fhteagle]

Am I the only one who thinks "Polestar" should be the Instagram username for a famous stripper instead?

 

[adiggs]

Am I the only one who thinks "Polestar" should be the Instagram username for a famous stripper instead?

There are things that cannot be unheard, once heard. Thanks for that

 

[samppa]

Heat pump gave up on my Model Y, and while waiting for parts I rented a Polestar 2.
Meh. Car was just boring. Center console is so big that I almost felt claustrophobic. Nothing like a roomy tesla.

Driving mechanics, boring, and in snow fwd was awful.. hard to get the car even moving from stop.

You really have to hate Tesla to buy a polestar. Price is pretty much identical to Model Y here.

 

[RobStark]

Driving mechanics, boring, and in snow fwd was awful.. hard to get the car even moving from stop.

Polestar doesn't make FWD anymore. RWD or AWD. Plus 68 hp and 30 miles of EPA range for base 2024 Polestar 2.

 

[samppa]

Polestar doesn't make FWD anymore. RWD or AWD. Plus 68 hp and 30 miles of EPA range for base 2024 Polestar 2.

Well that might be better. The one I had was a 2022 model.
Still I doubt the car being that much better.
Tight and cramped interior was a big issue for me. Felt like Volvo S60, big on the outside, cramped on the inside.

 

[RobStark]

Well that might be better. The one I had was a 2022 model.
Still I doubt the car being that much better.
Tight and cramped interior was a big issue for me. Felt like Volvo S60, big on the outside, cramped on the inside.

Reviewers like the dynamics much better.

I haven't seen anyone else describe it as tight and cramped vs Model 3.

Everyone's perceptions are just as valid as anybody else's I guess.