Tesla Semi

[electracity]

Torque in ICE is peak torque, and only achieved in a small RPM range. Hence the many gears in a semi.
An electric motor produces near peak torque over most of the RPM range.
A single S/X P series motor would have no problem moving a semi to highway speeds. This single motor would not, however, provide adequate regen in a heavy semi.

2 or 3 M3 P series motors is probably plenty of power and regen.

 

[neroden]

THere


There's a max length limit for truck+trailer. With a 53' trailer and a sleeper cab, you're at it already.

So, sleeper cab rather than the smaller sort of cab (which also exist).

 

[neroden]

Trucks will always have to take corners at reduced speeds because of how the trailers are loaded. I don't care how low the center of gravity is in the tractor it will never be low enough in the trailer to take at normal speeds. It's all physics. You sound like you've never seen a fully loaded trailer.

You can take corners at close to full speed if the truck is on rails with superelevation, and the truck has self-stabilizing conical wheels, but that's called a "train".

Good old physics.

 

[ecarfan]

If it becomes a reality it'll be truck stops and Carrier facilities that will place them on their property. As a truck driver I'm quite skeptical to say the least that Tesla will be successful in this market. Like I've said before without 700 miles worst case scenario range and 80% charge from very low in 30 minutes I don't see it happening. Trucks move too much and sit too short of time to make this economical without meeting those two requirements that I've set.

I have no real knowledge of the trucking industry and have no wish to dispute what you say about the industry as it is today. But Elon always thinks long term. I think you are neglecting, or at best minimizing, the likelihood of autonomous driving replacing human drivers. It will happen. The economic forces that favor it are too powerful. Any job that can be automated, will be automated.

And I think that Tesla is smart enough to realize what the basic range and charge time requirements are for a successful BEV truck.

 

[zdriver]

I'm not sure how just three M3 motors is going to provide enough power for the Semi to out-torque. Six, maybe. I think 1500hp would be a minimum. Anyone have a theory?

For a reference point, the average semi when my dad used to still drive 10-15 years ago, was rated at ~400-500hp, exceptionally up to 600hp, but those are less profitable (due to fuel efficiency) and therefore typically owned mostly by owner-operators, not fleets.

That said, I'm sure most drivers would love an electric with power capability of 750-1000hp+, as it would not only be less tiring to drive anywhere hilly or mountainous, but safer since they wouldn't be losing 20-30mph or more on steep grades. Same goes for a solid regen capability - downhill grades, especially in the western states would be much safer if regen could absorb even 50% of braking load for a 6% grade. Don't forget the savings on brake wear and maintenance...

Given the upsides, I bet it wouldn't take much convincing to get a lot of drivers to willfully switch, even without 700+ mile range. Make sure I-80 is plastered with semi charge rate capable superchargers every 200-300mi and a truck with 400mi worst case range would probably have enough demand to keep Tesla busy for at least the first couple years.

 

[jhm]

Maybe the motor's HP/torque output is more limited by the rate at which power can be dumped into the motors, than the motors themselves. In which case, maybe 3 motors can get closer to the 1500HP you're looking for, simply because Tesla Semi will have better power delivery from the battery(s).

To an earlier point about sports car semi's - for in town driving and getting stuck behind a slowly accelerating semi from a stop, simply having 1 or a very small number of gears and a flat torque curve that allows steady (if low) acceleration with no gear changes will be a nice improvement for traffic. It's not just the low acceleration - it's also the accelerate 5 more miles of hour, shift, accelerate 5 more mph, shift, ..., that drags out the acceleration process. And that sounds like something electric motors do a lovely job of helping with

Actually I think they need to come out with 2000hp to have a halo product (even if professional drivers know better than to do sprints). But I wrote 1500hp because the largest motor in the Model S line is 503hp. So even with ample power for inverters, the maximum combined power of three of these would be less than 1500hp. So I'd be really surprised if the Model 3 line has a motor with significantly more power.

But perhaps I am totally overstating expectations. While super trucks are pushing 2000hp or more, the average class 8 truck is in the fairly modest range of 400 to 600 hp according to this: Interesting Facts About Semi Trucks and Eighteen-Wheelers . So by that measure a Model S or X P100D already has more power than a typical class 8. So certainly, the M3 could have a motor with 300 hp or more. So three of these combined could deliver 800 to 900 hp.

So the question I have is whether this would really be enough power to impress truck buyers. It may be more than adequate for 99% of the market, but the Nokia One electric truck is coming out with 2000hp. So Tesla will not have a halo truck compared with other electrics if they offer a mere 800hp.

 

[roblab]

So, sleeper cab rather than the smaller sort of cab (which also exist).

Having driven a semi for a couple years, and now talking about semis, it is interesting to me that all we can think about is the trucks we have today. I don't see any advantage to having a driver sit ten feet above the ground, or the semi trailer having to be four feet above the ground. Sure, loading docks also fit here, but it seems there is a huge area that might be considered. It's not that we HAVE to have 18+ huge tires everywhere. There's no huge engine in front. Things could move. The driver does not have to sit above an engine and huge transmission (ten speed, when I was driving). Just googling "future semis" makes me know there have been a lot of ideas tossed around. And then again, tossing autopilot into the mix, where's the driver anyway?

And I still think there should be some battery under the trailer. There may be some shippers that want every pound of load available, but for most that I know, it's cubic feet and trailer height.

 

[TNEVol]

All my life I keep hearing about lost jobs for the poor people who can only learn how to drive a truck. Driving a truck isn't all that easy, and anyone who has learned to drive (a car, even) should be able to learn how to do something else. If we get autonomous driving, and switch to solar (Oh, no, all those billions of coal mining jobs), what in the world are we going to do to continue supporting these people who refuse to get any more education?? There are lots of other jobs, and there will be lots of other jobs. Personally, I learned to drive a semi, install my own solar, teach a class, work in a lab, milk cows, work sheet metal for air conditioning, repair motorcycle and car engines, build houses and their plumbing and electrical systems, write a book, etc. etc., all after I had made it through high school.

I bet a bunch of you folk did a lot of stuff after you graduated, too.

Yup. It required going through more school, often while working a day job.

I have a relative who lost his specialty job. His wife wants him to take nursing classes. He wants to sit around and do nothing and mope because he lost his job. Life is hard.

My best friend learned to drive a Semi with an oil rig backwards at 60 mph (a tractor at each end). I will not belittle this talent.

 

[TNEVol]

Dump Truck drivers are drivers who have too poor of a driving record to be hired by a trucking company.

Cow Haulers are by far the worst on the road by far. Some are good drivers but as a percentage they are the worst out of all truck drivers. The reason why is because they more times than not are just farmers who own a truck. They don't have the training or the care to drive like the rest of us professional drivers. They have uncovered trucks and violated traffic laws more often then the rest of truck drivers because they have no risk of losing their job if they get any violations or complaints.

As a professional driver these drivers give us all a bad name.

This is silly. Dump Trucks are paid by the load not the mile so they are expected to drive faster. Livestock haulers are not big OTR companies and are lightweight. They just want to get home.

 

[positive_alpha]

Many good comments ...

Current M-S battery == 500 kg/100 kWh on 260 Wh/kg cells (investor presentation).
Next-gen 2170 == 380 Wh/kg; => 1.45 more energy dense.
500 kg => 145 kWh.
2500 kg == current driveline mass of a semi, with fuel, radiators, axels, engine, transmission etc.
=> 725 kWh battery for the same mass (- 3 x 28 kg for the electric motors re: Model 3).
725 kWh @ 112 $/kWh => 81.200$ build cost for tsla.

Tesla can sell the semis at 200k each, with 50% margin, and will have a queue a mile long from every global fleet operator, most especially ex-usa, where fuel is == 6-7$ / gallon for diesel.

Charge times for 725 kWH = same as a Model S, about 30 minutes, to 80%+.
It is just 7 x 100 kWh batteries in parallel.
Just like the tesla VFD that drives the motor, in a model s, is 11 lines of TO247 IGBTs in parallel, total 84.

Of course Tsla will make special truck superchargers ...
and almost certainly use nighttime electric rates at 4 cents, to charge the batteries (they make) to then fast-charge the trucks during daytime, for those needing daytime charge.

725 kWh x 8 cents savings (12 cents - 4 cents) = 58 $.
x 100 charges/day = 5800 $/day savings.
= 2.1M$ / yr. Savings. For Tsla. At == 1.6M$ profit per center for Tsla.

The truck operator at 12 cents, still saves about
600 miles == 900 km;
20 l/100 => 1800 l; @ 1.2 € / l => 2160 € for 1800 l (large double tanks == 725 kWh)
12 cents x 725 = 87 $.
Saves about 2000 € / day, or per charge or tank, if the tank lasts 2 days or whatever.
At high-mileage, savings about 730.000 € / year.

OECD global fuel costs == 1.2€/liter.

 

[wcfinvader]

This is silly. Dump Trucks are paid by the load not the mile so they are expected to drive faster. Livestock haulers are not big OTR companies and are lightweight. They just want to get home.

What I stated earlier is fact. Dump truck driver's are the vast majority of the time driver's who couldn't get hired by a trucking company. My boss stated this even because there are several guys that he couldn't hire because of having a poor driving record. Yes they may get paid by the load but just like livestock haulers they are some of the more dangerous truck drivers on the road (in general).

By the way we all want to get home but a Professional Driver will not sacrifice safety to get home earlier.....non professional drivers would and do.


Don't believe me then go to a truck stop and ask any trucker.

 

[wcfinvader]

Many good comments ...

Current M-S battery == 500 kg/100 kWh on 260 Wh/kg cells (investor presentation).
Next-gen 2170 == 380 Wh/kg; => 1.45 more energy dense.
500 kg => 145 kWh.
2500 kg == current driveline mass of a semi, with fuel, radiators, axels, engine, transmission etc.
=> 725 kWh battery for the same mass (- 3 x 28 kg for the electric motors re: Model 3).
725 kWh @ 112 $/kWh => 81.200$ build cost for tsla.

Tesla can sell the semis at 200k each, with 50% margin, and will have a queue a mile long from every global fleet operator, most especially ex-usa, where fuel is == 6-7$ / gallon for diesel.

Charge times for 725 kWH = same as a Model S, about 30 minutes, to 80%+.
It is just 7 x 100 kWh batteries in parallel.
Just like the tesla VFD that drives the motor, in a model s, is 11 lines of TO247 IGBTs in parallel, total 84.

Of course Tsla will make special truck superchargers ...
and almost certainly use nighttime electric rates at 4 cents, to charge the batteries (they make) to then fast-charge the trucks during daytime, for those needing daytime charge.

725 kWh x 8 cents savings (12 cents - 4 cents) = 58 $.
x 100 charges/day = 5800 $/day savings.
= 2.1M$ / yr. Savings. For Tsla. At == 1.6M$ profit per center for Tsla.

The truck operator at 12 cents, still saves about
600 miles == 900 km;
20 l/100 => 1800 l; @ 1.2 € / l => 2160 € for 1800 l (large double tanks == 725 kWh)
12 cents x 725 = 87 $.
Saves about 2000 € / day, or per charge or tank, if the tank lasts 2 days or whatever.
At high-mileage, savings about 730.000 € / year.

OECD global fuel costs == 1.2€/liter.

I like your math but I'm certain a semi would need bare minimum 1 Megawatt pack. I've stated it before but my prediction is a 2 Megawatt pack with supercharge times of 80% in 30 minutes and 700-800 rated miles fully loaded. Anything less and it will only be good for niche applications.

 

[electracity]

I like your math but I'm certain a semi would need bare minimum 1 Megawatt pack. I've stated it before but my prediction is a 2 Megawatt pack with supercharge times of 80% in 30 minutes and 700-800 rated miles fully loaded. Anything less and it will only be good for niche applications.

Version 1.0 is unlikely to be a straight up replacement for the generic semi. Niche applications are fine for 2019.

 

[wcfinvader]

Version 1.0 is unlikely to be a straight up replacement for the generic semi. Niche applications are fine for 2019.

I disagree. Look at the negative publicity Nissan got for their 40-60 miles realistic range for their leaf. Even though they initially tried claiming it got 100 miles on a charge.

 

[jhm]

Many good comments ...

Current M-S battery == 500 kg/100 kWh on 260 Wh/kg cells (investor presentation).
Next-gen 2170 == 380 Wh/kg; => 1.45 more energy dense.
500 kg => 145 kWh.
2500 kg == current driveline mass of a semi, with fuel, radiators, axels, engine, transmission etc.
=> 725 kWh battery for the same mass (- 3 x 28 kg for the electric motors re: Model 3).
725 kWh @ 112 $/kWh => 81.200$ build cost for tsla.

Tesla can sell the semis at 200k each, with 50% margin, and will have a queue a mile long from every global fleet operator, most especially ex-usa, where fuel is == 6-7$ / gallon for diesel.

Charge times for 725 kWH = same as a Model S, about 30 minutes, to 80%+.
It is just 7 x 100 kWh batteries in parallel.
Just like the tesla VFD that drives the motor, in a model s, is 11 lines of TO247 IGBTs in parallel, total 84.

Of course Tsla will make special truck superchargers ...
and almost certainly use nighttime electric rates at 4 cents, to charge the batteries (they make) to then fast-charge the trucks during daytime, for those needing daytime charge.

725 kWh x 8 cents savings (12 cents - 4 cents) = 58 $.
x 100 charges/day = 5800 $/day savings.
= 2.1M$ / yr. Savings. For Tsla. At == 1.6M$ profit per center for Tsla.

The truck operator at 12 cents, still saves about
600 miles == 900 km;
20 l/100 => 1800 l; @ 1.2 € / l => 2160 € for 1800 l (large double tanks == 725 kWh)
12 cents x 725 = 87 $.
Saves about 2000 € / day, or per charge or tank, if the tank lasts 2 days or whatever.
At high-mileage, savings about 730.000 € / year.

OECD global fuel costs == 1.2€/liter.

Lot's of good ideas here. I like the notion of sizing the battery to the weight of the ICE drivetrain. I suppose if the EV drivetrain were significantly heavier, then that would cut into hauling capacity.

I also particularly like the idea of targeting markets where diesel is particularly pricey. I've been learning recently that US refiners export about 1.25 mb/d of distillate and about 68% of this is going to Latin America. The export of distillates is so profitable that it drives US refiners to process more crude than they need for domestic gas consumption. That is, less profitable gasoline is a by-product. So the trade actually helps to keep the price of gasoline low in the US. There is a structural mismatch in relative demand distillates and gasoline that results in a premium for export distillates. So the upshot here is this structural imbalance also created an opportunity for heavy electric vehicles. HEVs could correct this imbalance, lowering the price of US export distillates while maybe increasing US domestic gasoline prices. However that plays out, it is good to see HEVs go wherever deisel is most expensive.

Are you suggesting that 750 kWh would be sufficient for 600miles? 1.25 kWh/mile would be wonderful, but there is much skepticism about any rate below 2 kWh/mile. Remain eager to see Tesla resolve the matter.

 

[transpondster]

Current M-S battery == 500 kg/100 kWh on 260 Wh/kg cells (investor presentation).

I believe 90 was about 550 kg, so 100 kWh must be about 600 kg.

Next-gen 2170 == 380 Wh/kg; => 1.45 more energy dense.

Oh the joy of mixing energy per cell with specific density, I'll be very happy if new cells are 300 Wh/kg

500 kg => 145 kWh.

with your starting errors that's far away from truth, but I expect big savings from pack, not from cells density, so 120-130 kWh/500 kg maybe possible

Charge times for 725 kWH = same as a Model S, about 30 minutes, to 80%+.

current Teslas are limited for 1,1C SC rate and tapper slowly begins at ~60%, it more like 45 min to 80%

[QUOTEOf course Tsla will make special truck superchargers ...
and almost certainly use nighttime electric rates at 4 cents, to charge the batteries (they make) to then fast-charge the trucks during daytime, for those needing daytime charge.

725 kWh x 8 cents savings (12 cents - 4 cents) = 58 $.
x 100 charges/day = 5800 $/day savings.
= 2.1M$ / yr. Savings. For Tsla. At == 1.6M$ profit per center for Tsla.[/QUOTE
that's revenue not profit, and 4c/kWh is too low

 

[dc_h]

Urban markets for retail distribution solutions would be prime markets. Most thought here on interstate traffic, but urban markets like greater New York, Chicago, LA, SF etc would match up against high diesel tax and high regeneration. Love to see trucks at your local grocer owned by TSLA.

 

[Zaxxon]

From the new referral program details, the reveal event will be Sept 28th.

 

[ohmman]

From the new referral program details, the reveal event will be Sept 28th.

What?! With one extra day left in the quarter? Who'd have guessed?

 

[Zaxxon]

What?! With one extra day left in the quarter? Who'd have guessed?

Two days! This is super early! They even specify that the September Elon meant is *this* September!