The Electric Truck Revolution Is About To Accelerate | OilPrice.com
This is a nice article from a thoughtful oil analyst, who happens to drive a Tesla. He tries to find an analog to electric trucks challenging diesel in the history of diesel locomotives displacing steam. This transition took about 30 years. Note that the third comment to the article points out that initially diesel locomotives had just a fraction of the pulling power as steam. It would take 4 or 5 diesel to match one steam. But even so, other advantages of diesel allowed it to win out before much later diesel technology was able to mach power. The author seems unaware of this power difference. And this make the 30 year transition period seem like a fairly slow analog to the electric trucking situation.
On top of that, coal was cheaper than diesel. (Still is cheaper, as a matter of fact.) Whereas, in most places, electricity is cheaper than diesel now.
The biggest commercial disadvantage of steam engines was a terrible repair record -- they were often in the shop half the time. This is on top of the extremely labor-intensive aspects which he describes in the article (rewatering, refuelling, having a fireman on board just to stoke the coal).
But it was actually the maintenance which seems to have killed steam engines dead. British Rail made the quixotic decision to focus on new steam engines in the 1950s, which was disastrous financially. Thanks to heavy unionization, they didn't save anything on labor when they finally switched to diesel, but the maintenance savings were monumental.
See, it turns out steam is actually really destructive to materials, and keeping it pressurized is hard. This is actually one of the major reasons why thermal power plants are so unreliable and maintenance-heavy; the severely pressurized ones like nuclear reactors are worse in this regard.
At least Tesla Semi will not suffer from a lack of horsepower compared to diesel and I don't see any other drawback that could seriously slow adoption. So maybe 30 years is just an upper bound on the time it will take electric trucks to climb the S curve.
(Really, just getting halfway up the S curve is an important marker. Beyond that you're just waiting for old assets to fall out of service.)
I think we should see 30 years as a far upper bound, given that the steam->diesel transition suffered from the effects of coal being cheaper than diesel and early diesel engines being underpowered compared to steam engines, neither of which are present.
Electric trucks will have lower maintenance requirements than diesel trucks, though it won't be as extreme as the steam/diesel difference.