Tesla Semi

[jhm]

BYD Opens Up About Its Electric Truck Plans (CleanTechnica Exclusive) | CleanTechnica

This shows BYD strategy for entering all sorts of truck niches. In time this will catch on, one niche at a time.

 

[jhm]

StreetScooter Opens 2nd Factory To Build Electric Trucks | CleanTechnica

Here's another one. German postal service has been making their own truck because OEMs refused to make them for them. Now other companies want to buy what the Post makes, and they are opening a second factory.

 

[electracity]

Good reviving the semi thread.

The apparent model 3 low production costs reported are a good indicator for reasonable semi costs. There's nothing about the semi that should have a higher kw or kwh cost than the model 3.

I expect the battery packs to be moveable to stationary storage without too much effort, which will lower battery depreciation cost.

 

[jhm]

Good reviving the semi thread.

The apparent model 3 low production costs reported are a good indicator for reasonable semi costs. There's nothing about the semi that should have a higher kw or kwh cost than the model 3.

I expect the battery packs to be moveable to stationary storage without too much effort, which will lower battery depreciation cost.

Yes, I love that drive units and battery pack will be manufactured along with Model 3. That has got to be counterintuitive to tradition track makers. I've also heard that multiple motors males for a more efficient drivetrain than using a single big motor.

I like your idea of swappable packs that can be used in stationary set ups. Also that could allow packs to be swapped to other trucks. Thus, a fleet operator could simply redeploy packs from one truck to another or to stationary to optimize the inventory of battery packs.

Also I think that sort of modular system could work well for farm equipment. Through the growing season a farmer needed to use different equipment. So there is the question of what to do with battery packs when a particular tractor is not needed. So a smaller inventory of batteries may be all a farm needs if they are easily swapped.

Just to be clear, I am only talking about swapping a few time per year, not a daily charging strategy. The latter is valuable too, but should be automated to make it cost effective. Simply reconfiguring batteries a few times per year could be done by a technician, a task comparable to replacing and balancing tires. Automation is not so critical here.

 

[TEG]

I don't think pack swapping is in the cards for Model 3 or Semi.

I think the suggestion was that a heavily worn pack could be retired to a stationary storage application to recoup some of the costs.
(But I think JB had given some talk where it said recycling the materials for new cells tends to be a better idea.)

Model S & X had tried to design an easy to remove pack for pack swap capability that never got used much.
Model 3 pack seems less easy to remove quickly, so I don't think there is any intention of "routine" pack removal.

 

[electracity]

I'm guessing that the semi batteries won't be repurposed at the pack or cell level, but by the ~250lb module used in the model 3. At end of life for the semi battery, pull the modules and put then in a stationary storage unit. I can see the M3 module being placed in a powerpack type enclosure.

Modules:

 

[jhm]

I don't think pack swapping is in the cards for Model 3 or Semi.

I think the suggestion was that a heavily worn pack could be retired to a stationary storage application to recoup some of the costs.
(But I think JB had given some talk where it said recycling the materials for new cells tends to be a better idea.)

Model S & X had tried to design an easy to remove pack for pack swap capability that never got used much.
Model 3 pack seems less easy to remove quickly, so I don't think there is any intention of "routine" pack removal.

What kind of swapping are you talking about, automated swapping as a charging strategy or a technician maintaining/reconfiguring a fleet?

The Powerpack are designed to have hot-swappable modules. I suspect this is important for maintaining a fleet of Powerpacks. Why not have a fleet of Semis which have "hot-swappable" modules?

 

[TEG]

Well, time will tell. It seems to me that Tesla is focused on quick charging more than any kind of vehicle pack swapping.

 

[jhm]

Well, time will tell. It seems to me that Tesla is focused on quick charging more than any kind of vehicle pack swapping.

Right, I don't see pack swapping as a compelling charging strategy.

But if you're managing a fleet of semis and one rig needs a little more capacity for its duty cycle while another needs a little less for its duty cycle, then it could be more capital efficient to swap a couple of modules from one to the other, in lieu of buying a new semi with greater range and having another with overcapacity. So I'm talking about a fundamentally different motivation for swapping modules. I'm talking about optimizing capital efficiency of a fleet rather than operational efficiencies around charging.

 

[mongo]

What kind of swapping are you talking about, automated swapping as a charging strategy or a technician maintaining/reconfiguring a fleet?

The Powerpack are designed to have hot-swappable modules. I suspect this is important for maintaining a fleet of Powerpacks. Why not have a fleet of Semis which have "hot-swappable" modules?

Hot swap is not a needed semi use case, unless the modules are being swapped while the vehicle is in motion.
Powerpack has 16 modules with integrated DC-DC converters to handle charge/discharge. Semi only has the single charger (possibly multiple outputs) and the drive units.

I do think the semi structure lends itself to sliding the sub-packs in/out sideways. Depending on the plumbing and wiring systems, it could lend itself to easy replacement.

 

[jhm]

Hot swap is not a needed semi use case, unless the modules are being swapped while the vehicle is in motion.

Aw, come on, man. Those truckers need to maximize their uptime on the road. A real trucker only stops to pee every thirteen hours if you go by what the critics of Tesla Semi say. So definitely need to hot swap not just modules, but tires too while everything rolls down the highway. /s

 

[electracity]

.......Semi only has the single charger (possibly multiple outputs) and the drive units.

....

I doubt the standard semi will have any onboard charger. Four external charging circuits to four packs in parallel driving four motors. 4x next gen superchargers doing a megawatt plus total power.

On customer property trucks would share a cluster of chargers with the customer controlling charging priorities. At Tesla truck stops charging priorities could be controlled by contract. All kinds of exciting operations research possibilities.

 

[dhanson865]

Hot swap is not a needed semi use case, unless the modules are being swapped while the vehicle is in motion.
Powerpack has 16 modules with integrated DC-DC converters to handle charge/discharge. Semi only has the single charger (possibly multiple outputs) and the drive units.

I do think the semi structure lends itself to sliding the sub-packs in/out sideways. Depending on the plumbing and wiring systems, it could lend itself to easy replacement.

The model 3 charger is inside the battery pack. Why do you think they won't have redundancy by having 4 "Model 3 packs" on the Semi? If they follow that model each pack has a charger and each one is bypassed by DC charging.

per Tesla Model 3 - NextGen Battery - EVTV Motor Verks

The first thing I would note is that in this vehicle, Tesla has integrated MOST of the vehicle electronics INTO the battery assembly which is put together in the Gigafactory in Nevada. The charger, BMS controller, junction box, DC-DC converter and all protection circuitry has been moved into a hump on the end of the battery termed for no apparently good reason the “penthouse”. This can actually be accessed for service by removing the back seat as it projects upwards exactly where the seat cushion is for the back seat. You would have to remove the seat bottom, a couple of braces, and then a bunch of star head screws, but it pops off and allows access to the fuses and contactors and so forth pretty readily.

The combined charger/dc-dc converter is a thorough MARVEL inside. We will be looking more closely at this in the future but it again has NO apparent relationship to any previous Tesla charge circuitry, and they squeeze 10kW of charger into a remarkably small and cool running package.

 

[electracity]

Why do you think they won't have redundancy by having 4 "Model 3 packs" on the Semi?

No place to plug in that would have meaningful power except semi superchargers. I do imagine they will have an optional portable charger that is single channel.
Th capability to charge vehicle to vehicle seems to be needed. If Joe gets lost and runs out of power his semi will somehow need to be retrieved. Another Tesla semi or a service vehicle seems to be the only practical choice.

 

[SmartElectric]

The pack is the majority of the cost of the Tesla semi.

Why swap packs when you can just switch over to another semi. The entire point of a semi is the ability to swap trailers...otherwise why not just buy a box tŕuck.

 

[jhm]

The model 3 charger is inside the battery pack. Why do you think they won't have redundancy by having 4 "Model 3 packs" on the Semi? If they follow that model each pack has a charger and each one is bypassed by DC charging.

per Tesla Model 3 - NextGen Battery - EVTV Motor Verks

This is very interesting. So here a "pack" is a 25 kWh module which includes a whole assembly of power equipment including a 10kW charger? So the Model 3 LR has 3 of these, right?

If this is correct, it is a startlingly modular design. For example, all the manufacturing efficiencies are built right into the module. Also no matter how many modules in a vehicle, it can be completely charged in about 2.5 hours so long as the power supply is sufficient, 10kW times the number of modules. For example, the LR Semi may have say 32 modules supplying 800 kWh of capacity and can be charged at 320 kW AC without need of a Supercharger for even fast DC charging. 320 kW AC charging should be quite sufficient for charging between shifts. Even an hour long lunch break could provide a 200 mile range boost. I'm not saying this avoids the need for Supercharging at 3 or 4 times this rate, but 320 kW charging enables alot of flexible and potentially lower cost alternatives.

So how much would one of thes 25kWh modules cost Tesla? I think the goal would be $2500 or $100/kWh. But even $3500 or $140/kWh could make the pricing work. The 500 mile range Semi will go for $180k. 32 modules at $3500/module is $112. If the rest of the truck can be built for $23k, this affords $45k gross profit, a 25% markup. Maybe this is too slight on the rest of the truck, so paring the module cost down below $3000 makes it much more workable, allowing the rest of the truck to cost as much as $39k to get to a 25% margin.

Anybody have some better ideas on these costs?

 

[jhm]

The pack is the majority of the cost of the Tesla semi.

Why swap packs when you can just switch over to another semi. The entire point of a semi is the ability to swap trailers...otherwise why not just buy a box tŕuck.

Suppose a couple of modules were malfunctioning. Would you swap them out, replaced the whole battery or scrap the whole truck? Modular design is important for keeping maintenace and repair costs down.

 

[TEG]

This is very interesting. So here a "pack" is a 25 kWh module which includes a whole assembly of power equipment including a 10kW charger? So the Model 3 LR has 3 of these, right?

I think maybe you misunderstood. Whole Model 3 battery pack (for LR) includes 4 battery modules, and charging equipment inside the pack, but not inside each module.

All this lives at the edge of the pack:

 

[jhm]

I think maybe you misunderstood. Whole Model 3 battery pack (for LR) includes 4 battery modules, and charging equipment inside the pack, but not inside each module.

All this lives at the edge of the pack:

Thanks. Perhaps you can point out where the modules are. I'm not seeing that in this diagram. Also not seeing the 10 kW charging units, just connectors.

 

[mongo]

Thanks. Perhaps you can point out where the modules are. I'm not seeing that in this diagram. Also not seeing the 10 kW charging units, just connectors.

They aren't in that pic. The modules run the full length of the pack and all the electronics live above them in the penthouse. 8,16, 13, and 14 are connected to the modules.

Item 4 , power conversion system, is the charger. There only one of them.