Tesla Supercharger network

[BerTX]

Reasonable possibility, but doesn't that make the transformers and hookup to the grid the gating factor? Some superchargers have waited for months for a transformer. Can they even be manufactured fast enough?

And site selection and permitting seems to be really slow and somewhat out of Tesla's hands when it comes to speeding it up much.

Any streamlining of the process is bound to help. If the transformer is a problem, then don't install the Superchargers until the day after the transformer is in place. True, they can't speed up the utility's process, but they also don't have to suffer as a result of it by having spent a month doing installation, then having the whole thing sit there for another month, waiting.

A permit to put in a commercial air conditioning system is much less complex than one for constructing a building. If, in SOME locations, if putting in the pre-fab Supercharger is able to be done under a mechanical permit rather than a building permit, the process might be quicker.

Also, as an aside -- asking for suggestions will be better received if it isn't just a skeet shoot for you to blow holes in the idea. Nobody will throw plates up for you anymore.

 

[AudubonB]

Fiver:
1. It sounds as though you're talking about Park City (doesn't matter if it is or isn't, but wanted to throw out my guess there)
2. Couldn't you have made use of a directional borer to get to that ideal spot? They're not rare: crikeys, we've got one even here in Paxson - of all places - at the moment, and are in ubiquitous use to pop under roadways w/o disturbing traffic.

 

[ccutrer]

Fiver:
1. It sounds as though you're talking about Park City (doesn't matter if it is or isn't, but wanted to throw out my guess there)
2. Couldn't you have made use of a directional borer to get to that ideal spot? They're not rare: crikeys, we've got one even here in Paxson - of all places - at the moment, and are in ubiquitous use to pop under roadways w/o disturbing traffic.

I'm also curious about the placement of these new destination chargers. We don't have too many in Utah, and I'm not seeing any listings I don't recognize, and certainly not any with three plugs@19kW. Wait, maybe it's 208V, and there are three at Silver Mountain@ 16kW.

 

[Fiver]

Fiver:
1. It sounds as though you're talking about Park City (doesn't matter if it is or isn't, but wanted to throw out my guess there)
2. Couldn't you have made use of a directional borer to get to that ideal spot? They're not rare: crikeys, we've got one even here in Paxson - of all places - at the moment, and are in ubiquitous use to pop under roadways w/o disturbing traffic.

I'm also curious about the placement of these new destination chargers. We don't have too many in Utah, and I'm not seeing any listings I don't recognize, and certainly not any with three plugs@19kW. Wait, maybe it's 208V, and there are three at Silver Mountain@ 16kW.

Yes I am talking about Park City, and yes, these are the Silver Mountain Destination Chargers. The three close to town went in (relatively) easily and have been working fine since January. Although they were down earlier this week for unknown reasons. We reset them and they seem to be working fine again. Those three load share a single 100 amp line.

The second location in Kimball Jct just off I-80 went live this past Wednesday. Since it's brand new service, and close by, we ran 100 amps to each charger. I'm not a fan of where they placed the pedestals but what's done is done. The info is submitted to Tesla, should be on the destination charger list next week. I put it on plugshare already. I get a nice solid 79-80 amps at ~207v. (The other location hovers around 200v)


As for the ditcher, it just wasn't an option. The cheapest way to put them in was just get new service off the transformer. We just didn't anticipate how hard it would be to get that going. Also it ended up costing a lot more then expected for some reason, but you'll have to ask the electrician why. Getting new service is kind of a pain.

 

[ohmman]

But all other nonsense aside, let's pretend that they intend to do this. How would it be possible? Do you have any ideas on this at all?

I think the other 'nonsense' is important context. Your assumption/hope/postulation of an actual doubling of locations by year end seems to be insurmountable. Aside from some kind of logistical partnership miracle, I just can't see any way it'll happen. This is why you are getting push back. Tesla has also phrased this differently at different times, which is why I think people are looking for the most achievable phrasing.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Your assumption/hope/postulation of an actual doubling of locations by year end seems to be insurmountable.

Much of what Tesla does seems to be impossible. I find it a useful analytic technique to simply pretend to believe what they say and then try to understand how that can possibly happen. It doesn't mean I believe it or hope for it or anything else. Apparently nobody else finds this approach useful, so I'm on my own. Carry on.

This approach, by the way, worked quite well for Apple. SJ would say something perfectly straightforward. Nobody would believe him. Absurd analysis of what he "really meant" would ensue, bizarre hypotheses concerning evil and manipulation would be discussed. In the end it was pretty much always the case that he meant exactly what he said and usually it was what would happen, regardless of how impossible or bizarre people thought it might be. So I'm pretty much down with believing what Tesla says (taking a certain discount for optimism into account) and using that as a basis for analysis. To the extent that others aren't doing that, I believe it gives me a significant advantage in the market.

 

[David99]

Much of what Tesla does seems to be impossible.

This is not a new technology that no one thinks is possible and viable like making an EV that people actually want to buy. This is good old construction business. Tesla has fallen short on their promise for Superchargers every single year. Tesla said double Supercharger locations, then changed it to double stalls. Now we are half way through the year and the progress is not anywhere near what it needs to be to reach the goal.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Tesla said double Supercharger locations, then changed it to double stalls.

They said both at different times. These are not mutually exclusive.

 

[David99]

They said both at different times. These are not mutually exclusive.

doubling stalls is easier than doubling locations, but bubbling locations would be much more preferable as it makes the network more versatile and more or less doubles the stalls as well. Elon first talked about doubling locations, then the official press release reduced the goal to stalls. But let's not get worked up about that. Tesla will reach neither by the end of the year.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Elon first talked about doubling locations, then the official press release reduced the goal to stalls. But let's not get worked up about that.

Why get worked up over falsehoods? The truth is in the 8-K from February. I posted the link and the quote in this thread only two days ago.

Tesla will reach neither by the end of the year.

So you think they're lying? Or stupid? Let's pretend that they're smarter than you and saying what they believe. How do you think they could accomplish that?

I think they're going to release a V3 supercharger that requires no trenching or cement work to install -- all prefab with just postholes and a borer needed for installation. And they'll throw money at the permitting and site selection problem. Maybe they'll start manufacturing their own transformers to mitigate that problem too. All right, I don't actually think they're going to do all those things, but I bet that would speed things up significantly. They're going to do something.

 

[ccutrer]

Why get worked up over falsehoods? The truth is in the 8-K from February. I posted the link and the quote in this thread only two days ago.

So you think they're lying? Or stupid? Let's pretend that they're smarter than you and saying what they believe. How do you think they could accomplish that?

I think they're going to release a V3 supercharger that requires no trenching or cement work to install -- all prefab with just postholes and a borer needed for installation. And they'll throw money at the permitting and site selection problem. Maybe they'll start manufacturing their own transformers to mitigate that problem too. All right, I don't actually think they're going to do all those things, but I bet that would speed things up significantly. They're going to do something.

I think that the only way to meet their goals is to drastically increase the manpower pushing these things through. Instead of having say 10 at a time in permitting, up that to 100. It may still take months for some permits to go through, but overall throughput goes up. It'll just take money and manpower to manage that many things all going on at once. I don't think they really need a turnkey install. The major delays are outside of their control (cities, utilities).

 

[Bangor Bob]

Black & Veatch were doing the planning work around here, they're not a small company.

JAM: Just Apply Money

 

[dhanson865]

The truth is in the 8-K from February.

Why do you believe February 2017 Tesla more than April 2017 Tesla? You act like you've never seen this:


Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this shareholder letter, including statements in the “Outlook” section; statements relating to the progress Tesla is making with respect to product development; statements regarding growth in the number of Tesla store, service center, Supercharger locations; statements relating to the production and delivery timing of future products such as Model 3; growth in demand and orders for Tesla products and the catalysts for that growth; the ability to achieve product demand, volume, production, delivery, revenue, cash flow, leasing, gross margin, spending, capital expenditure and profitability targets; productivity improvements and capacity expansion plans; and Tesla Gigafactory timing, plans and output expectations, including those related to cell and other production, are “forward-looking statements” that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

 

[David99]

So you think they're lying? Or stupid?

I don't make any statements like these. I simply wrote what happend in the past. Tesla never met their own goal in Supercharger locations by the end of the year. Now they made an even larger promise and as it looks right now, it will be the same as all the previous years.

 

[Bet TSLA]

You act like you've never seen this:

Forward-Looking Statements

You're joking, right? The boilerplate "it's the future, so nothing is certain" required statements -- you think they mean something important? Have you ever invested before? Have you ever looked at these statements from any other company?

There might be an alien invasion and all the electricity could be contaminated....

 

[dhanson865]

You're joking, right? The boilerplate "it's the future, so nothing is certain" required statements -- you think they mean something important? Have you ever invested before? Have you ever looked at these statements from any other company?

Yes I have stocks in several companies outside of my 401k accounts and stocks inside my 401k accounts. I think they mean the truth, that you can't hold every single goal to the fire and play grammar nazi about it without sounding ... well I'll just leave that open.

Still if you don't want to believe the disclaimer portion of the 8K why do you want to believe the goal portion of the 8K over statements released more recently?

I posted the timeline for you before, Feb 2017 vs April 2017 and you keep saying Feb 2017 is the only one you care about. Maybe you should move into the investors section of TMC if you want to argue about the 8K and only the 8K. And if you go there, please do create a thread just about the 8K, don't pollute a general thread in the investment section with your obsession about the Feb 2017 8K.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Still if you don't want to believe the disclaimer portion of the 8K why do you want to believe the goal portion of the 8K over statements released more recently?

They don't contradict each other, so I don't have to choose what to believe. You're the one insisting that the new statements somehow make the old statements wrong. They don't. And belief doesn't matter anyway because I'm not arguing that this is true. All I'm asking is: Tesla said something; let's assume it's serious; how would they accomplish that? If you don't want to contribute then don't. But arguing with my assumptions is just pointless.

If you think the 8-K disclaimers mean something important, then you're pretty much alone in that feeling. But go ahead and invest based on the attitude that "it's the future, so anything can happen" and see how you do.

 

[ohmman]

In my opinion, this speculative (and somewhat brusque) conversation belongs in a separate thread.

 

[Bet TSLA]

In my opinion, this speculative (and somewhat brusque) conversation belongs in a separate thread.

Actually, it doesn't seem to belong here at all. I'm done trying to elicit speculation on how Tesla will accomplish what it says it will. Others don't seem to view this as a valuable exercise.

 

[WannabeOwner]

doubling locations would be much more preferable as it makes the network more versatile

I agree it makes the network more versatile, but not sure I draw the same conclusion that that is the best approach.

Superchargers can be fairly widely spaced, I don't need one on each street corner like a gas station.

But when I get to one I'd like there to be a good chance that there is a stall free. I think that's much more likely with fewer, bigger, sites.

I could have some fancy software on my dash to locate a non-busy location, but unless I can book a slot in advance that isn't much use at small sites - several cars might turn up just before I get there ... plus I may be delayed / change my mind / whatever and then be hogging a pre-booked slot that I then don't actually use / don't use on time. Lots of hassle in trying to manage a pre-booked system too without attendants.

Hence I favour larger sites.

Larger sites, given that I will be stopping for 30 minutes or so, can also attract some amenities to help me pass the time.