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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

EV forever

Supporting Member
Apr 23, 2016
718
5,355
Irvine, CA
I've lived in Fremont, CA since 1988 [1]. The mayor bought her family home from the real estate broker wife and me, we're good friends, and yes, Lily drives a white Model 3 Dual Motor just like my wife's car.

It *was not* Fremont that shutdown the factory before. It was the former Alameda County health officer, Dr. Erica Pan of Oakland. Our Gov. Gavin Newsome made the astute political move of getting Pan the hell out of Alameda County by hiring her to be California's top infectious disease doctor on June 30, 2020.

Now, the State health department has decreed that "workers at Tesla's California vehicle factory are deemed essential" and are not impacted by the latest COVID-19 restrictions.

Of course the only thing Tesla's Fremont workers are "essential" for is to maintain our collective wealth!

Counties are allowed to impose stricter rules than the State as the Bay Area has already done by announcing an earlier "stay at home" mandate today. Hopefully, with Pan out of the way, that won't happen re: Tesla. The bottom line is I think as long as the Fremont factory does not become a "super spreader" workplace, it will remain open.

[1] The SFO airport I will be using to award travel business class the hell out of California on 12/31/2020 arriving in Taipei on 1/1/2021 has been declared "essential infrastructure" so it won't close, either. I never thought that marrying (and staying married to!) a Taiwanese-American 20-something I met in SF in 1983 would prove so useful, since normal tourist visas to Taiwan are not available during COVID-19. Only 620 hours to go...

I think there is a slight misunderstanding on what my post intended to say - likely my fault for not articulating properly. I am actually also saying the same thing you are - it was the idiotic decision of Alameda county to refuse to allow Tesla to re-open. The City of Fremont, the Mayor and even the police force did not support the Alameda county decree

Agree with you completely. Alameda county learnt a lesson the hard way - NEVER GO AGAINST ELON MUSK

No matter how positively they painted the outcome, they lost the last battle with Elon pretty badly and came out looking foolish in the process. The public backlash was resounding - other than a few idiots like that Sandiego congresswoman, no one supported them, not even the City of Fremont or neighboring counties. They had to back down and give him what he wanted. They will not try that dumb move again.

In my quote above, the "them" I am referring to is Alameda County officials. The City of Fremont and the neighboring counties did not support Alameda County officials. If I remember correctly, the Mayor actually openly supported Elon on Twitter. The public backlash was against Alameda county officials. The crazy San Diego congresswoman posted "F**K Elon" on Twitter - she faced severe backlash immediately.

Alameda county will not make this mistake again. Tesla factory will not shut down.
 

astrotoy

Supporting Member
Jan 24, 2013
321
673
SF Bay Area
The automaker already sold the car.

The dealer may hold onto cars because they demand prices above market prices. They don't do this very often or they would be out of business.
I actually have seen dealers keep lowering the price as the car gets older and older on the lot. I understand they finance the cars, so they are losing money every month that goes by, hence lowering the price to get rid of it.
 

RobStark

Well-Known Member
Jul 2, 2013
10,228
52,299
City of Champions, USA
I actually have seen dealers keep lowering the price as the car gets older and older on the lot. I understand they finance the cars, so they are losing money every month that goes by, hence lowering the price to get rid of it.

A car depreciates every month. Even brand new on the lot.

IF an old inventory(90 days plus) car is on the lot by definition the price the dealer puts on the car is above the market price.
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
8,629
63,228
Maple Falls, WA
Every automaker sells 100% of the cars they build.

The big manufacturer's have more production capacity than they can use. That means they can't sell all they can make. If they build as many as they can, they run out of buyers. Even with production throttling they often end up with huge lots filled with new cars (in addition to full dealership lots). Yes, they eventually get sold but only because they stop making them, often for weeks at a time. They also offer incentives to help move them that are often $5K-$7k below the normal selling price. But they try to slow production before that is necessary.

Tesla is constantly increasing production capacity and, other than the delay in getting the cars matched up and delivered to buyers, sell them as soon as they can make them.
 

wipster

Gold Member
Nov 10, 2013
3,129
14,345
Kennewick, WA
TSLA +1.0%

An all-time closing high for my 75th birthday present :)

Curt, Happy Birthday my friend! I really appreciate the information you provide for all of us and especially your musical celebration of the many all time highs the SP has had lately. Just for you I guess it's time to start posting again... my fingers have been burning lately!

Enjoy your 75th and I can't wait for your 80th, where we celebrate an SP of 1,000... after a 10 for 1 split that is...
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
8,266
101,030
Canada
After-action Report: Fri, Dec 04, 2020: (Full Day's Trading)

Headline: "Low Volume Day w. Closing Rally to ATH"

Traded: $17,522,128,299.24 ($17.52B)
Volume: 29,517,668
VWAP: $593.61

Close: $599.04 / VWAP: 100.96%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $570

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $567.831B / $193.733B = 295.32%
Note: Yahoo Finance updated TSLA Mkt Cap for shares issued Sep 9th (per 10-Q)
CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 30-day Moving Avg Market Cap: $470.02B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $347.42B

Mkt Cap req'd for 6th tranche ($350B) tracking for Mon, Dec 07, 2020
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for next tranche.
'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 52.3% (52nd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 55.7% (54th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume ratio was 0.29% of Short Volume (45th Percentile Rank)​

TSLA - SUMMARY TABLE - 2020-12-04.png


QOTD: @Singuy "For those who believe in TA, this is the signal..." :D

Comment: "One bitch of a morning has turned into a hell of a day

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!
 

RobStark

Well-Known Member
Jul 2, 2013
10,228
52,299
City of Champions, USA
The big manufacturer's have more production capacity than they can use. That means they can't sell all they can make. If they build as many as they can, they run out of buyers. Even with production throttling they often end up with huge lots filled with new cars (in addition to full dealership lots). Yes, they eventually get sold but only because they stop making them, often for weeks at a time. They also offer incentives to help move them that are often $5K-$7k below the normal selling price. But they try to slow production before that is necessary.

Tesla is constantly increasing production capacity and, other than the delay in getting the cars matched up and delivered to buyers, sell them as soon as they can make them.


Tesla doesn't make every Model S they can make. Probably doesn't make every Model X they can make. A year ago they reduced capacity from 100k to 90k per year. Even as Tesla increases footprint globally.

Every so often Tesla also reduces prices, adds equipment without raising prices or has promotions when production runs ahead of demand. Even for Model 3.

Huge parking lots full of cars is the business model for large OEMs. Have large selection available to purchase on the spot. Not having to order and wait weeks/months.

The Detroit business model is also to pad the MSRP and then discount. Buyers of Detroit brands expect a sizeable discount from MSRP. It doesn't mean the Detroit companies are receiving less money than they expected for their vehicles.

Ford/GM/FCA doesn't have to idle pickup truck production. Even during the pandemic.

The Europeans also don't have to idle production on their money makers.

Some companies like Nissan are in trouble and have to idle many plants over the world.

Then there are companies like Subaru. That are trying to make every car they can make and sell them quickly once they do.

Yes, operations are different when you have .1%,1%,or 10% market share.
 

TSLA Pilot

Active Member
Mar 12, 2013
1,644
2,272
United States
A reason alluded to, but not directly stated or explored, is that car insurance is a low margin / high competition business. That 1% underwriting profit is a good indicator of that - actual profits come from investment of the float (and understanding this concept in more detail is a good reason to be reading Buffet's Annual Letter to Shareholders - I've been reading them for a couple of decades now, and they're all available on the Berkshire investors site).

The problem with a 1% underwriting profit of course is that is an aggregate value over the industry, over the years. Some years are better, some are worse.


That thin margin is also our protection as car owners. An insurance company that is badly misplacing Tesla car insurance to the high side will earn some incremental underwriting profit, and will lose business to other companies that aren't.

One of Geico's strategies, talked about 1 year by Buffett, was to make their premiums easy to see, and to keep them low (which puts heavy emphasis on their ability to price correctly). The way they see it, it's a win either way. Showing lower premiums will bring in customers. Accurate pricing of those contracts at low prices, where the customer goes elsewhere even cheaper, will be losing contracts for their competition.


That doesn't mean that Tesla can't develop a lower priced insurance using superior information at the individual consumer level and their individual driving habits. Only that I don't see it as a no-brainer (mostly because the loss of privacy will be an impediment for many potential consumers).

Then again, I think I'm personally closer to $1200/year on our Model X insurance with State Farm, partially due to having our entire collection of insurance coverage with State Farm. So maybe I'm just happy with the rates we're getting, and don't feel a need to go looking for something better.

You're missing a key component: MARKETING COSTS.

One reason for the supposedly thin margins in the insurance business is because we've seen about 9,582 Geico commercials, 7,922 Liberty Mutual commercials, and 2,689 "other" car insurance commercials in the past month or so . . .

The cost for all those impressions boggles the mind--GEICO even pays to have banners flown in the sky by small aircraft. It's never ending, and a massive cost.

Tesla Insurance will have ZERO advertising expense.

That should provide for massive cost reductions/margin enhancement.
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
8,629
63,228
Maple Falls, WA
Tesla doesn't make every Model S they can make. Probably doesn't make every Model X they can make. A year ago they reduced capacity from 100k to 90k per year. Even as Tesla increases footprint globally.

Every so often Tesla also reduces prices, adds equipment without raising prices or has promotions when production runs ahead of demand. Even for Model 3.

Huge parking lots full of cars is the business model for large OEMs. Have large selection available to purchase on the spot. Not having to order and wait weeks/months.

The Detroit business model is also to pad the MSRP and then discount. Buyers of Detroit brands expect a sizeable discount from MSRP. It doesn't mean the Detroit companies are receiving less money than they expected for their vehicles.

Ford/GM/FCA doesn't have to idle pickup truck production. Even during the pandemic.

The Europeans also don't have to idle production on their money makers.

Some companies like Nissan are in trouble and have to idle many plants over the world.

Then there are companies like Subaru. That are trying to make every car they can make and sell them quickly once they do.

True, luxury cars have a limited market.

Yes, operations are different when you have .1%,1%,or 10% market share.

Yes, and especially when you have a superior product in high demand.
 
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dgodfrey

Supporting Member
Nov 27, 2016
394
3,439
Niskayuna, NY
Selling for retirement is unnecessary. Just get a line of credit with the shares as collateral: 1) you don’t sell your shares so you don’t pay taxes 2) your shares continue to appreciate while you take from the line of credit, very likely they will appreciate much more than the low interest (I pay 2.2% at E*Trade) you pay over the principal balance.
I’ve often wondered about this because that’s how Elon generates income but maybe I’m missing the obvious. How do you pay off the loan if you never sell the shares?
 

FS_FRA

Member
Sep 4, 2018
354
2,383
Frankfurt, Germany
I think it would be nice if from here on out we went up in roughly $100/share on a weekly basis. It makes it so easy to figure out the worth of TSLA stock in my portfolio. Don't you agree.

I did say I was looking for 3% / day - and then 30% afer 12/17..... not looking too bad so far at average of 3.1%:


(apologies for non-US date and comma/period format :D)
 

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MikeAtkinson

Supporting Member
Sep 9, 2019
290
4,527
UK

Prunesquallor

His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
Dec 19, 2018
2,786
28,218
Houston/Galveston
Selling for retirement is unnecessary. Just get a line of credit with the shares as collateral: 1) you don’t sell your shares so you don’t pay taxes 2) your shares continue to appreciate while you take from the line of credit, very likely they will appreciate much more than the low interest (I pay 2.2% at E*Trade) you pay over the principal balance.
Eventually, I assume you need to sell shares to pay down the credit debt? Or are you saying your borrowing limit just keeps increasing (as TSLA investment value increases) faster than you draw it down? So you just keep borrowing?

What does that do to your credit rating?
 

UkNorthampton

TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Jun 15, 2019
528
4,579
Northampton, England
Tesla doesn't make every Model S they can make. Probably doesn't make every Model X they can make. A year ago they reduced capacity from 100k to 90k per year. Even as Tesla increases footprint globally.

Every so often Tesla also reduces prices, adds equipment without raising prices or has promotions when production runs ahead of demand. Even for Model 3.

Huge parking lots full of cars is the business model for large OEMs. Have large selection available to purchase on the spot. Not having to order and wait weeks/months.

The Detroit business model is also to pad the MSRP and then discount. Buyers of Detroit brands expect a sizeable discount from MSRP. It doesn't mean the Detroit companies are receiving less money than they expected for their vehicles.

Ford/GM/FCA doesn't have to idle pickup truck production. Even during the pandemic.

The Europeans also don't have to idle production on their money makers.

Some companies like Nissan are in trouble and have to idle many plants over the world.

Then there are companies like Subaru. That are trying to make every car they can make and sell them quickly once they do.

Yes, operations are different when you have .1%,1%,or 10% market share.

Another post (@jbcarioca ?) mentioned that in some countries, EV adoption is top end prestige & maybe bottom end cheap. This probably matches wealth (rather than income) distribution.

If Tesla sold Model S/X in such countries, then probably huge demand/sales, creates basic infrastructure and a halo effect for later. I'm not sure how profitable S/X are though. making Model 3/Y might be better use of space, labour, money. Might be best after refresh/4680 etc.

Thailand (not best example as huge import taxes on USA cars, Chinese built have lower tax), Brazil, those kind of countries (depends very much on import taxes).

Even in Thailand (Bjorn Nyland videos), Teslas are imported from Right Hand Drive countries/locations like UK/Hong Kong. In-country enthusiast/maintainers/importers do servicing. Major fixes require shipping to UK/HK & back to Thailand. Prices paid are huge but are being paid.

Large images/video links/Supercharger map/link in spoiler
TchLs_ujMw?t=149 Thai police will use 7 Model 3 Performance (video at import tax, best summary)

Tesla gray market ownership in Thailand
Why Tesla should come to Thailand

supercharge.info - shows why new China Supercharger factory is useful
upload_2020-12-5_12-28-45.png

Also, I don't have a link, so treat with a large pinch of salt... I seem to remember some OEMs crushing/recycling unsold new cars. I can't remember the details.

Q is - how profitable are S&X compared to 3/Y?
 
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