Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheWalkingDad]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427526441172971540

Looks like the 3 line is back up and running but priority is going to the S / Y.

 

[juanmedina]

GM has to replace battery modules on most of the Bolts they sold and their stock goes down 1% .... hilarious

 

[Driver Dave]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/business/tesla-autopilot-accident.html

Pretty much the worst piece of ”journalism” I’ve ever seen in the Times.

This Neal Boudette, I hope he gets paid well by the oil, auto and dealer lobbyists.

 

[kanweg]

I welcome the NTSHA investigation. I once had a client who had made a safety device. The governmental safety organization kept giving him flak over it because of shortcomings. The client resolved them all, ended up with a superior product that he sold all over the world and made a boat load of money.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/business/tesla-autopilot-accident.html

Pretty much the worst piece of ”journalism” I’ve ever seen in the Times.

This Neal Boudette, I hope he gets paid well by the oil, auto and dealer lobbyists.

Well then by all means link to it!

 

[ammulder]

I welcome the NTSHA investigation. I once had a client who had made a safety device. The governmental safety organization kept giving him flak over it because of shortcomings. The client resolved them all, ended up with a superior product that he sold all over the world and made a boat load of money.

Yeah, ultimately, if NHTSA makes Tesla show that autopilot will no longer hit vehicles parked partially in the lane, that seems like it will be a good thing. ‘Autopilot proven safer!’ But my impression is that a lot of these preliminary investigations are closed with no further action, so it’s not a given it will even get that far.

 

[elasalle]

From archives:
4/19/21 Tesla faces another NHTSA investigation after fatal driverless crash in Spring, Texas


(
You can't hide your lying eyes, and the smiles in disguise ...
cause by now we realize, there ain't no way to hide your lying eyes
) ..

FUD (history) repeats itself ..

 

[ammulder]

With modern deep learning, 80-90% of engineering efforts goes to collecting/labeling/managing datasets.

Rewriting network architecture is not as big an adventure as it might sound, most likely training data would stay the same set.

This is different than say switching from Lidar to vision, in that case almost all data would become useless.

Even if FSD completely accurately interprets the real world via the camera views, it doesn’t seem totally straightforward for a car to make a left turn across three lanes of traffic into yet another lane of traffic. So I thing there’s a problem of choosing the correct action for the car to take even after the deep learning bits are completed successfully.

Unless they’re also applying deep learning to what human drivers do at those intersections in order to select the correct action. Hmm.

 

[saniflash]

Unless they’re also applying deep learning to what human drivers do at those intersections in order to select the correct action. Hmm.

this is pretty much what they're planning since a while if I understood correctly: merging the perception + control layer

 

[ammulder]

this is pretty much what they're planning since a while if I understood correctly: merging the perception + control layer

Do you think that would fly? If a car on FSD causes an accident and NHTSA or NTSB or whoever asks “why did it move that way?“ and Tesla can only shrug and say “because the neural net told it to” I think that could be a problem. Without some ‘reasoning’ behind its actions it seems much harder to create trust.

But… they know better than me. I guess we’ll see.

 

[winfield100]

Sorry, I don't trade short-term. It's not worth my time when the same money can be compounding long-term with great companies. It's two completely different things. When investing short-term you are working the odds. You win some and you lose some. I have a proven ability to make it pay but I only have one life to live and it takes a lot of time. Not only does it take a lot out of you but it's also about as fundamentally unproductive as it gets. I mentioned the short-term thing simply to point out that not all excellent investments go up immediately (and they don't have to for them to be excellent investments).

In other words, TSLA is valued highly enough that it's not a given the market will recognize additional value until the market becomes more educated about the many advantages Tesla has going forward. And that can take a long time and be difficult to predict when it will happen. People have a very poor understanding about who Tesla is and what makes them tick. It's pretty obvious the attacks are piling up right now and I do expect some sustained efforts to harm Tesla as their two factories ramp. I doubt it will be all that effective at harming Tesla (the company) but it could change public perception enough to keep the pressure on the stock for some time. Or the market could wake up tomorrow. It's one of those things where you won't know how it will play out until it's already happening. I don't need to worry about it as a long holder. I still have a plan to buy more if it goes down enough on more silliness because that changes the risk profile for me and allows me to hold more shares without concern.

@StealthP3D
I have a slightly differing view about the time line and suspect it will happen a lot sooner than you expect, for a few reasons
right now, you cannot invest in SpaceX, but you can invest in Tesla and within 1 month 2 spectacular events will occur
more folks will go "..who is this Elon Musk?..." some negative, more positive

1) the SpaceX flight of Inspiration 4, September 15th, less than 1 month is a civilian trip
"...low earth orbit on a multi-day journey that will continually eclipse more than 90% of the earth’s population. Named in recognition of the four-person crew.."

Falcon 9 Block 5 | Inspiration4

A Falcon 9 Block 5 rocket launched with Inspiration4 from LC-39A, Kennedy Space Center, Florida, USA on Thursday Sep 16, 2021 at 00:02 UTC.

nextspaceflight.com

2) Starship Super-Heavy also in September (if successful)
"...Starship will perform a test flight to demonstrate orbital launch capability. After stage separation, Super Heavy Booster 4 will perform a boostback burn and splashdown 20 miles (32 km) off the Texas coast. Starship Ship 20 will reenter the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean and splashdown 62 miles (100 km) northwest of Kauai...."

Starship-Super Heavy (Prototype) | Starship Flight Test 1

A Starship-Super Heavy (Prototype) rocket launched with Starship Flight Test 1 from Orbital Launch Pad A, Starbase, Texas, USA on Thursday Apr 20, 2023 at 13:33 UTC.

nextspaceflight.com

 

[scaesare]

Yeah, but not roughing it.

"Glamping"

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427526441172971540

Looks like the 3 line is back up and running but priority is going to the S / Y.

I think everyone would agree with me when I say it’s probably best to not post Sawyer tweets about production. His “sources” have been demonstrably false/wrong multiple times……and not just “slightly” off.

 

[lascavarian]

Without some ‘reasoning’ behind its actions it seems much harder to create trust.

Agreed. I think the deliverable that builds trust is the historical record or safety history Vs the reasoning.

I think it could be that the NN finds a method of delivering results that has never been recognized by human drivers oblivious to probabilities.

 

[JusRelax]

As a follow up to this, when Chuck tweeted that, he was talking specifically about a special case of his unprotected left turns, where the computer gets confused and ends up turning right instead of left. More FSD Beta 9.2 videos have come out from others that do have some successful unprotected left hand turns. Overall, there are some mistakes here and there, but I believe that Beta 9.2 is overall a good improvement over 9.1. Here are some FSD Beta videos from today:

Plenty of unprotected left hand turns in AIDRVR's video. All of them were handled without any significant issue:

 

[scaesare]

LG is not going to pay for labor.

I saw a note that the Bolt battery replacement also comes with a reset back to the full 8yr/100K miles warrantee,

If true, I wonder who eats that expense?

 

[Tslynk67]

I totally disagree. Public agencies should only do investigations when there is enough evidence to warrant the opening of a formal investigation. Not every complaint or "report" will automatically meet that threshold. This is a witch hunt.

You can bet your butt that the $TSLAQ psychopaths have been blanket reporting, emailing, texting, Twittering and calling these people - same as they were filing bogus safety reports for years

 

[Mengy]

Interesting technical analysis

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427368635383881729

Yep, no matter what the day to day TSLA activity currently is, the long term trend is indisputably UPWARD. Especially now with the PE Ratio dropping every quarter. It's only a matter of a quarter or two before TSLA blasts off to new highs again, not much can stop that now.

 

[EVWatcher]

You can bet your butt that the $TSLAQ psychopaths have been blanket reporting, emailing, texting, Twittering and calling these people - same as they were filing bogus safety reports for years

This is my assumption as well. Until there are penalties for such behavior they have to intermittently acquiesce to the insanity and do an investigation.

 

[dm28997]

Wildfires are being started with CATALYTIC converters. This is deadly serious. Why isn't the NHTSA going after these ICE catalytic converters that are deadly fire bombs? I gotta wonder who sets the priorities of these agencies. More is covered in the Off TOPIC GALORE but here is evidence of this; I believe Fire Chiefs know this. ICE companies seem to get away with this while fires and smoke are consuming parts of the world. Thanks to Elon for the BioHazard Defense mode.