Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Since we are keeping score…

Elon Musk takes shots at Joe Biden after SpaceX sends civilians to space

Elon Musk mocked President Joe Biden over the weekend after Saturday's successful splashdown of SpaceX's Inspiration4 flight carried four tourists on a three-day orbital mission.

www.cnn.com

From the CNN article:

Biden has been good for Musk

In a number of ways the Biden administration has been very good to Musk's companies. SpaceX has NASA contracts to deliver both supplies and US astronauts to the International Space Station. Many predate Biden taking office, but the company has gotten additional NASA contracts this yearL In April it was awarded a $2.9 billion NASA contract to build spacecraft that will land astronauts on the moon for the first time in five decades, despite protest from Blue Origin, the rocket company led by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, which had also sought the contract.

Until the most recent quarter, Tesla would never have turned a profit without the benefits from the sale of those credits, and back when it was still losing money the credits also helped fund its early operations.
Tesla also benefited in the past from a $7,500 tax credit to buyers of electric vehicles, a fact that allowed it to charge more for the cars.

Will Humans Be an Interplanetary Species?

BIANNA GOLODRYGA: Well, this milestone initiative offers a glimpse into the future of space exploration. And no one is more qualified to speak on this […]

www.pbs.org

From the Amanpour interview video:

At about the 2:50 mark, Bill Nelson, the Director of NASA states the the U.S. Air Force informed him that SpaceX had saved the Department of Defense 40 Billion dollars through the use reusable rockets.

Since we are keeping score. Musk has been far better to Biden.

Indeed, how is SpaceX being "treated well" by the Biden administration? Fact is that they provide both the best and cheapest service for getting to orbit, so any proper functioning e-Procurement process would award them the contracts, it's nothing to do with being "treated well", but everything to do with providing tax-payers value for money

FFS

 

[Featsbeyond50]

2021: Someone claims the U.S. is the greatest country in the world, debate ensues, and Maarten says stop.

2121: Someone claims the Earth is the greatest planet in the solar system, debate ensues, and Martian says stop.

Your humor appeals to the 6th grader in me. He thanks you.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Indeed, how is SpaceX being "treated well" by the Biden administration? Fact is that they provide both the best and cheapest service for getting to orbit, so any proper functioning e-Procurement process would award them the contracts, it's nothing to do with being "treated well", but everything to do with providing tax-payers value for money

FFS

And, NASA is an independent agency.

 

[Baumisch]

Wow, Boring Company was founded in December 17th, 2016. We're cropping up on the 5 year milestone for the company.

In terms of its relationship to Tesla, the Tesla Hawthorne test tunnel was completed 2 years later with the Model X going through it on December 18th, 2018.

5 months passed and Las Vegas purchased the contract for Boring Company to build a loop for the convention center there. It's amazing how much progress they've made in only, almost, 5 years...even though they haven't really crossed the chasm as a startup yet, IMO.

The loop in Las Vegas needs to be completed and shown working for an entire city before we see real scale, right? or am I thinking too simplistically?

I think Tesla is on the hook for boring to have autonomous cars operating end of the year 2021 correct?

 

[jerry33]

The other interesting factor is, FSD seems to work better in California, that may be a combination of more up to date maps, and better training data..

I am pretty sure they said they were prioritizing training California. Not surprising with the percentage of Teslas there. If that's the case then Texas should be number two. Until Dojo comes online, they have to allocate the human trainers where they can get the quickest results.

 

[lascavarian]

I am pretty sure they said they were prioritizing training California. Not surprising with the percentage of Teslas there. If that's the case then Texas should be number two. Until Dojo comes online, they have to allocate the human trainers where they can get the quickest results.

I wonder if states with active insurance operations will be toward the front of the line.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Yes, I'm sure what you say is true. The haters can't wait for that first accident and especially, that first fatality. The thing is, it is going to happen. Next week, next month, next year. There WILL be accidents and fatalities on FSD. Nobody has ever said there wouldn't be. The point is the statistical chance of that happening relative to human driving. The articles are going to come. It is inevitable. We just have to look past it and keep improving the system. Eventually statistics (and probably insurance companies) are going to prove that the technology is safer. Once that happens, people will come around.

There are going to be absolutely awful headlines and a sea of Fear Uncertainty and Doubt in the early days of this rollout. We know the truth. Hell, my EAP has saved me multiple times. Can't imagine what FSD Beta is going to be like. We just have to stay the course and turn a deaf ear and blind eye to all the BS that most certainly will fly.

Dan

The problem is how humans handle statistics with very low probability. The brain has not evolved to understand there is a 0.0001% probability of death over a lifetime of driving with FSD. Unless you were trained as a statistician or any other line of work requiring frequent usage of statistics. Kahneman had a whole chapter in his book talking fast and slow about a terrorist bus bombing that happened in Israel when he was an intern there for work. He wasn’t victim of the attack. Even if the probability of being killed by a terrorist bombing a bus was lower than the probability of dying of a car accident, statistically, he said he changed mode of transportation, used a car instead, and couldn’t stop beside a bus at red lights, because his lizard brain could only let him know there was a probability of a recurring fatal attack. His pulse was going up and he was getting tense every time he came near a bus for a while after that story.

MSM will use the first FSD fatality and the irrational brain of the uninformed to push the narrative of the company that pay them billions in marketing. People will talk about it and react negatively. It will delay adoption a little bit by then gradually the facts will push insurance companies to lower rates for FSD users and then the adoption will become widespread.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I am pretty sure they said they were prioritizing training California. Not surprising with the percentage of Teslas there. If that's the case then Texas should be number two. Until Dojo comes online, they have to allocate the human trainers where they can get the quickest results.

Yes, on Aug 25, 2021 Elon said:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@WholeMarsBlog @kimpaquette In general, we overfit to SF Bay Area" / Twitter​

I agree they'll need Dojo-level trg resources before they can perform the same level of training for all other locations. That's why I predicted the roll-out of the FSD beta will begin in Tesla's backyard around Fremont/Alameda and N. California.

This fitting means they need the data too, and that means having Tesla cars on local roads. India, for example, is doing themselves no favors by slowing imports with a 100% tariff on foreign cars. Telsa (FSD) can't build bricks without straw. India will get FSD last in spite of needing it most.

Cheers!

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Yesterday the QQQ bounced off support at the 360 level, which it’s done twice since mid-July, on Jul 27 and Aug 19.

On those two occasions, TSLA was trading between 620-680. Yesterday it was 720-740. It has been able to ratchet up nicely over the last two months, relative to the broader market.

There may be more downside to go, as the Qs have only pulled back about 5.7% and nothing is resolved in China. Yesterday was pretty ugly, so any recovery will be jittery.

 

[TheWalkingDad]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1440125891204452359

 

[elasalle]

I am pretty sure they said they were prioritizing training California. Not surprising with the percentage of Teslas there. If that's the case then Texas should be number two. Until Dojo comes online, they have to allocate the human trainers where they can get the quickest results.

As a human (meat AI) , I drive based on muscle memory, less focused on roads I know and need to be more careful on roads I don't.

But given that almost all US has same road rules, signs etc, if system is just AI based why would CA need to be any different from any of the other US states?

So even within US, are parts of the NN going to be localized?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why does this feel familiar?

Fate loves irony: Ford recalls Mach-E over concerns the glass roof (and windshield) may come off

Ford and their executives have not been ones to shy away from criticizing Tesla. Late last year before deliveries of the new Mustang Mach-E began, the leader of their EV business in North America Darren […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

As a human (meat AI) , I drive based on muscle memory, less focused on roads I know and need to be more careful on roads I don't.

Yes, its procedural memory vs. your declarative system:

Muscle Memory and Learning to Drive | PassMeFast Blog

Curious about the role muscle memory plays when it comes to driving? We examined the link between the two at the PassMeFast Blog.

blog.passmefast.co.uk

But given that almost all US has same road rules, signs etc, if system is just AI based why would CA need to be any different from any of the other US states?

Lane markings are critical to the path planning process, and are different in California, especially vs. more rural locations. Things like bike lanes are examples. For FSD, this is most equivalent to your declarative system, where you actively think about how to best apply the rules of the road in a specific situation. This is NOT muscle (procedural) memory, and its why you drive better in familiar areas (you retain previous mental models, or "learn" the location).

So even within US, are parts of the NN going to be localized?

General AI is a hard target; even being a good driver gets pretty generalized. Other examples that aren't location specific but require the NN to be adaptable are night driving, rain snow fog or smoke, wet or slippery roads, snowy roads with obscured / intermittent lane marking. It'll take time and experience, just as you'd expect for any new driver.

Cheers!

 

[BornToFly]

Since we have touch screens, Tesla could have all owners who click on the FSD Beta button sign a contract on the screen that clearly states in BOLD that the car is not fully self driving yet, and that they understand they have to monitor the car at all times and are personally responsible for any accidents. Maybe that would address some of the criticism from the NTSB and others who continue to make ridiculous claims about Tesla, Autopilot, and owners.

 

[22522]

All magazines with EE in the title are not the same. For example "EE Times" is not "IEEE Spectrum." I just discovered that here, in this forum, this morning.

As I read the EE Times article, it seems clear that some Brits (and Bureaucrats) don't know how to process an Integral sign. It looks like this:

From now to 10 years from now the number of people who will die on the roads will be way less, the sooner FSD works. The fastest way to make FSD work is to get it out of the lab.

If, to protect the general public, you have to put a windshield banner on every car that is using it, just do it.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Since we have touch screens, Tesla could have all owners who click on the FSD Beta button sign a contract on the screen that clearly states in BOLD that the car is not fully self driving yet, and that they understand they have to monitor the car at all times and are personally responsible for any accidents. Maybe that would address some of the criticism from the NTSB and others who continue to make ridiculous claims about Tesla, Autopilot, and owners.

Good idea, and I have to say I wonder why Tesla hasn’t already done this for current versions of driving assistance. Otoh, even though that will clearly establish liability, it is not going to stop clickbait headlines and media coverage of crashes and injuries, the “lead with blood” approach of most media.

 

[thx1139]

As Rob clarified on his podcast (hi Rob ), Q4 will look good because of the 7 day lag in enabling FSD for new subscribers and hence revenue recognition.

I would think they dont recognize revenue until FSD is general release.

 

[Krugerrand]

Since we have touch screens, Tesla could have all owners who click on the FSD Beta button sign a contract on the screen that clearly states in BOLD that the car is not fully self driving yet, and that they understand they have to monitor the car at all times and are personally responsible for any accidents. Maybe that would address some of the criticism from the NTSB and others who continue to make ridiculous claims about Tesla, Autopilot, and owners.

Probably not because I don’t actually believe they are criticizing something they’ve got intimate knowledge of. I believe most are just making off the cuff comments - that’s most everyone about anything.

It’s like someone complaining today about fit and finish in Teslas. Anyone doing that today is someone simply parroting what they heard somewhere.

Most of the people who’ve used AP extensively are not the people criticizing its name. It’s not actually important what the system is called if you’ve used it. You don’t even think about the name while you’re using it.

This applies to a lot of things in life. Often the ones complaining the loudest are the ones who have the least experience, have the least knowledge, and generally just like to hear themselves talk/be the center of attention.

 

[Knightshade]

Good idea, and I have to say I wonder why Tesla hasn’t already done this for current versions of driving assistance. Otoh, even though that will clearly establish liability, it is not going to stop clickbait headlines and media coverage of crashes and injuries, the “lead with blood” approach of most media.

IIRC they do.

When you enable AP the first time it throws up a message that it's not autonomous and you have to monitor it and click to acknowledge you understand and want to turn it on.

Like most EULAs almost nobody reads it though.

(and every time you activate it after that it has a much briefer reminder of course but that one doesn't require user acknowledgement)

 

[thx1139]

Since we have touch screens, Tesla could have all owners who click on the FSD Beta button sign a contract on the screen that clearly states in BOLD that the car is not fully self driving yet, and that they understand they have to monitor the car at all times and are personally responsible for any accidents. Maybe that would address some of the criticism from the NTSB and others who continue to make ridiculous claims about Tesla, Autopilot, and owners.

Honestly I dont believe FSD or AP should enable until drivers have sat in the cars and watched safety videos through the car. Car should make sure butt in seat and full video played before allowing to be enabled. I also agree with the signing terms of agreement. If someone of different weight attempts to drive they should have to go through process as well.