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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Sneaking in my thoughts on JPOW before earnings. The market is overestimating how quickly rates can go up. There was a HUGE fiscal stimulus which has abruptly stopped, from unemployment, childcare payments, and other covid relief support.

All of that pretty much stopped on a dime in the last few weeks. This has historically resulted in several labor market metrics to look very tight. JPOW is basing his policy on this, but I am a bit disgusted that none on the Q&A panel brought this up. This is the biggest risk to the forecast IMO.

Really the elephant in the room, and no one touched it.
 
Sneaking in my thoughts on JPOW before earnings. The market is overestimating how quickly rates can go up. There was a HUGE fiscal stimulus which has abruptly stopped, from unemployment, childcare payments, and other covid relief support.

All of that pretty much stopped on a dime in the last few weeks. This has historically resulted in several labor market metrics to look very tight. JPOW is basing his policy on this, but I am a bit disgusted that none on the Q&A panel brought this up. This is the biggest risk to the forecast IMO.

Really the elephant in the room, and no one touched it.

Agreed on the overestimation, but I think I know why: investors are deathly afraid of being the ones left holding the bag before a correction because of faster-than-expected tightening.