Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Or they have to price the product right. How come they sell it for $75k to preorders while on ebay you pay $135k to get the same product. Why give all that value away for free? Not saying supply+demand curve will intersect at $135k but clearly $75k is too cheap, especially if cost to produce is too high.

Well there's also the marketing aspect of the initial rollout price. If Rivian announced their trucks to be over 6 figures, 99% of the people will write them off and never look at them ever again. Just because a brand new Model 3 SR+ is being sold 10k above msrp doesn't mean Tesla should just priced them as such or else you can lose the plot kind of thing (and we see that Tesla is being criticized a lot by rising prices to levels beyond affordable. .

This is why every company (except Lucid) tries to generate eye balls by announcing fairytale prices.

 

[wipster]

<snip> On the other side I am clueless when I type Nio stock and I see +16.39% while TSLA is 2.45%. I thought smart money would flow back into profitable market leading companies.<snip>

A lot of the difference in the percentage rise has to do with the stock price. Nio for instance started around $16.xx today and rose $2.86 to around $18.xx. Tesla started around $654 and gained $16.xx to a current price of $664.xx. So if you were just day trading today, you would have made a lot more with Tesla than Nio. On the other hand if you were a HODLer and owned say $1M of each, you would have made a lot more with Nio.

That's one of the reasons I was excited about the rumored 20:1 split with Tesla. If Tesla stock were say $40 post split, HODLer's would benefit substantially from gains less than $5, which would equate to 12.5%! I would be doing cartwheels if my portfolio grew that much in a month, let alone a day.

I guess my point is, with the cheaper stocks, don't sweat the difference in % raises in comparison with more expensive stocks. I think one of the reasons Tesla didn't go with a 20 or even 10 for 1 split is the visibility to investors who don't follow the stock as closely as we do. They could perceive the drop in the SP as a sign that Tesla is in trouble when we know the opposite is true.

 

[pdwitt]

Really? Throwing Martha in with the likes of Bernie? Is there more to the Martha Stewart story than I'm aware of?

What I remember is she got a call from her adviser and made an in the moment decision to sell. Many, maybe most of the people would have done the same. When she was convicted, she could have appealed but she didn't, she reported to jail. More honorable than most, in my opinion.

 

[henchman24]

Nasdaq went under 200 week MA and SP 500 went under 150 week MA. For SP 500, it hasn't touched the 200 week MA outside of the Covid drop... since 2011. When the SP500 hits the 200 week, Nasdaq usually has to touch the 250 week. Those are 5% and 7% drops away right now.

 

[Ogre]

Or they have to price the product right. How come they sell it for $75k to preorders while on ebay you pay $135k to get the same product. Why give all that value away for free? Not saying supply+demand curve will intersect at $135k but clearly $75k is too cheap, especially if cost to produce is too high.

Just because a few people pay $130k on eBay for a truck which takes 2 years to get otherwise, doesn't mean they will sell 70,000 for $135k.

Rivian is trying to build a business around selling trucks. If they only sold $135,000 trucks, it would be a very small business. In 2-3 years when electric trucks are more common it will be much more difficult to sell $100k trucks in volume.

 

[mongo]

A lot of the difference in the percentage rise has to do with the stock price. Nio for instance started around $16.xx today and rose $2.86 to around $18.xx. Tesla started around $654 and gained $16.xx to a current price of $664.xx. So if you were just day trading today, you would have made a lot more with Tesla than Nio. On the other hand if you were a HODLer and owned say $1M of each, you would have made a lot more with Nio.

Even a day trader is limited by cash or margin available. They can only buy 1/4 as many shares of TSLA as NIO so percentage is still in play.

 

[wipster]

Even a day trader is limited by cash or margin available. They can only buy 1/4 as many shares of TSLA as NIO so percentage is still in play.

Understood mate, just providing an example of the difference between the two.

 

[CorneliusXX]

It was a general moaning about dumbassery in general. IQ keeps dropping with each generation it seems.

“Children; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. They no longer rise when elders enter the room, they contradict their parents and tyrannize their teachers. Children are now tyrants.” — Socrates, 470BC

The kids are ok. The people who ask me the most about my Tesla tend to be under 12.

There's been c.100 generations between Socrates and us. Are we getting exponentially stupider or linearly? I'm curious to know if our intelligence asymptotes or goes to naught.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

One leg has been kicked out from under the inflation trade today.

Explain to me again why we export LNG?

Natural gas plummets as Freeport delays facility restart following explosion

U.S. natural gas prices fell about 16% Tuesday amid oversupply concerns.

www.cnbc.com

Forgot to mention this will dramatically impact WTI crude pricing as well. It's my understanding there's quite a bit of overlap between the crude and natural gas products. So not only is there more gas stuck in the US for electricity production, the excess will offset an equal amount of crude demand within the refining world.

And prior to this we had already seen 3 weeks in a row of decent builds in US crude & refined products supply. A little more pressure from the WH to increase production and this trade should be broken.

Sounds like Biden is also considering a 21% windfall tax on oil & gas similar to what was thrown down in the UK. Dangle that over their heads a couple weeks and see what happens.

We're getting close.

 

[BornToFly]

I'm trying to plan my day around my trading tomorrow. We will learn what interest rates hikes are planned at 2pm EDT tomorrow?

 

[henchman24]

Only a 10x beta today!

Nasdaq and Sp500 both his key levels that could have support for a bottom, but there isn't nearly enough evidence to think they will yet. If the Fed doesn't go against guidance, we should rally and give some credence to those being short-term bottoms. If the Fed does 75 bps, well... the next weekly MAs down are 5% and 7% down, IMO that would be the strongest support level.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I'm trying to plan my day around my trading tomorrow. We will learn what interest rates hikes are planned at 2pm EDT tomorrow?

Yes. Interest rate announcement happens at 2PM. Press conference is at 2:30 PM EDT I believe.

 

[traxila]

A 45 basis point rise in the ten year over two days.

I don't think bond markets were built for this kind of faster than light speed trading. A 15% move in the ten year debt of the reserve currency in the world in 48 hours is flat out destabilizing. Very hard for any PMs to be coherent with this kind of action. Pension fund managers must be going nuts.

And all this over the idea that we may get a 75 basis point hike tomorrow instead of a 50? Seen media hawking an 100. Why not just do a one and done 400 basis point hike and watch the economy fall into a black hole over a couple of weeks? I guarantee you will break the back of inflation.

Loopy market.

I am betting on a stupid rally tomorrow. 75 hike small rally. 50 hike big rally. And the ten year to come in a bit.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm trying to plan my day around my trading tomorrow. We will learn what interest rates hikes are planned at 2pm EDT tomorrow?

Yes.

U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch

2 pm	FOMC statement			--	0.75%-1.00%
2 pm	FOMC projections
2:30 pm	Fed Chair Jerome Powell news conference

 

[TheTalkingMule]

30yr mortgage rates are up from 5.5 to 6.28 in one week. Lol!

Pretty sure that'll put a damper on things.

 

[henchman24]

30yr mortgage rates are up from 5.5 to 6.28 in one week. Lol!

Pretty sure that'll put a damper on things.

And that is why 100 certainly isn't happening and 75 is very unlikely. The housing market will crash within 6 weeks if they do 100 bps, and we all know each time that happens it always ends well.

 

[Skipdd]

Ford issues stop-sale of electric Mustang Mach-E crossovers due to potential safety defect

Ford says the issue with the Mustang Mach-E crossovers could cause the vehicles to become immobile.

www.cnbc.com

At least it is getting some press. Still the irony abounds. This will likely require "dealer service", and F stock is up. If Tesla had a similar issue, it would already be fixed with an OTA upgrade, but their stock would be "down on a recall".

Yep, game is rigged. Rigged by big oil.

Read all the notes posted on this. So, when NHTSA issues the recalls, will they send a courtesy copy to Pete, you know the Secretary of DoT, since that’s what he drives - sorry but I couldn’t resist.

 

[JustMe]

Yesterday during a conference I was talking to a sports med guy in his early sixties who was talking about TSLA stock dropping but being one of the greatest company out there. I was silent while he was speaking. He was answering to the pharmaceutical rep who said their stock was down hard. Then the sports med guy starts talking about all the good aspects of the Tesla car. He said his son is always talking about it but he never talked to someone who had actually owned one. Then I started talking of my Model 3 I have been driving since 2019, then about my 2021 Model Y. He said he hesitated between the Polestar and the Tesla, after we spoke he said he was going for the Tesla no doubt.

Always feels good when someone was in between and you push them just a little bit and they fall on the right side.

About TSLA, I have mixed feelings when the SP is going down. I feel like it’s an opportunity to be buying more if it goes in the 600s and I am super happy to grab shares like I did at the 650 mark but I am equally happy when the stock goes to a more reasonable value. On the other side I am clueless when I type Nio stock and I see +16.39% while TSLA is 2.45%. I thought smart money would flow back into profitable market leading companies.

Good work, OrthoSurg

As for Nio up 16% while TSLA is up by 2.5% - I see these kinds of comments here all the time. I think a lot of these imbalances are due to things like short covering and the influence of the options market magnifying and distorting price action on daily-weekly timescales. In this case, NIO crashed even harder than TSLA this week - the equivalent for TSLA would have been a drop to $570. So a stronger recovery might have been expected.

Optimistically, it could mean TSLA has some catch-up recovery due. Certainly, that’s where smart money will gravitate to.

 

[AZRI11]

NHTSA report coming soon. Data likely shows Teslas on Autopilot crash more than rivals obviously Tesla gathers data immediately, while other automakers wait for field reports. Tesla is penalized for being a smartphone on wheels.

 

[thx1139]

NHTSA report coming soon. Data likely shows Teslas on Autopilot crash more than rivals obviously Tesla gathers data immediately, while other automakers wait for field reports. Tesla is penalized for being a smartphone on wheels.

If the report doesnt utilize miles driven in the calculations then this information will be worthless.