Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[junas]

When the dust settles it's interesting to see whether Fremont produces US or EU variant. On the one hand, European FCA credits greatly improve automotive gross margin as seen in Q1 results. On the other hand, there is still plenty of inventory left in Europe. Order backlog must be stronger in US and China compared to EU.

Current M3 inventory situation in Europe according to tesla.com:

Belgium: inventory left
Denmark: inventory left
Spain: inventory left
France: inventory left
UK: inventory left
Ireland: inventory left
Luxembourg: inventory left
The Netherlands: inventory left
Austria: inventory left
Portugal: inventory left
Switzerland: inventory left
Sweden: inventory left
Finland: inventory left

Czech Republic: SOLD OUT
Germany: SOLD OUT
Iceland: SOLD OUT
Italy: SOLD OUT
Norway: SOLD OUT

Probably a couple of car carriers would be enough for this Q.

 

[Reductionist]

And more specifically, it confirms that Tesla is still working with them, and will be submitting an iterated plan yet today.

I think the major risks here are largely over at this point.

I believe the most likely scenario over the next week is that the county continues demanding that Tesla close again (but never actually enforces anything), with Tesla continuing to operate. Tesla then gets the official go ahead for production on May 18th (Alameda basically has already commited to this), and continues production legally.
This allows everybody to save face, and the lawyers can argue over the period from March 16th to May 11th ad infinitum, if Alameda so chooses, without it having too big of an impact.

 

[X Fan]

So much for county bending to an opening today.

FWIW: it’s unbelievable that this interim Health Officer, Dr Pan, doesn’t view the absolutely comprehensive plan that Tesla drew up as sufficient to restart.

 

[MC3OZ]

Call me old fashioned and out of touch, but I do think it is possible for people to cut their own nails, and grow their own flowers.

No one can build their own car...

Closing Fremont makes sense if everything else is closed and everyone stays locked in their houses, otherwise we need to look at a balance of risks.

ICE exhaust fumes damage the health of many people, climate change is going to impact on human health, and kill people.

Coal miners often catch bad diseases and die in mine accidents, the oil and gas industry is dangerous.

Workers often die on construction sites.

The effects on human health from a FF BAU are substantial.

With the "return to work plan", I can't see why working at Fremont is any more dangerous than any of the other permitted activities, some of which are not essential, and should not even be permitted.

Critics are ignoring the return to work plan, other permitted activities, and balance of risks, because it doesn't suit their argument..

All employers have a duty of care to minimise risk as far as possible, Tesla is doing that.

 

[RobStark]

That is pretty interesting. The Fremont mayor has voiced support for Tesla reopening so if it is up to her it seems like there will be no enforcement. The question is, does the county have authority to direct the Fremont police or is it the city of Fremont?

No.

The real question is how much authority does the Fremont mayor have over Police Dept Chief.

In some cities the mayor can fire the Police Chief at will and in others it is the city council.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

mods, how many dislikes does one need to get banned?

Nah. Arrogant and ignorant posts like the one that jeffro01 posted should stay up. Nothing defeats ones ego more than when exposed to be pure narrow-minded idiocy.

 

[Krugerrand]

You know what I've watched "dozens of times over the years"? An endless parade of people come here for affirmation of their leveraged positions and they often get wiped out by the volatility in this stock, doing crazy *sugar* like buying options with a HELOC.

Feel free to place me on ignore if you find my opinions tedious, you seem like one of the smart & disciplined ones here in terms of managing investment risk and probably don't care to see much about short term minutiae, that's fine. I'd like to see this place stay a forum for all investor discussion with real time reaction, both positive and occasionally skeptical, and not become a de-facto support group for gamblers and love-it-or-leave-it types. I don't see how your rude & dismissive response really contributes to anything other than the latter.

Nice change of subject so you don’t have to address your tantrum that led to a big fat zero change in anything TSLA related. But it’s okay, I can steer us back.

You over reacted. Don’t worry, you had lots of company. But even you should have realized by now (since you’re so concerned about others here) that over reacting isn’t actually conducive to short term gambling and leveraged positions and doing crazy sugar.

So my rude and dismissive response that was advice to basically check your emotions at the door (because they’re unhelpful, wasted energy) could be viewed as far more helpful than your tantrum about something that amounted to a hill of beans. Never mind that high emotion stirs other people up and feeds a viscous cycle.

Guess it all depends if you’re more focused on wanting to be offended versus learning how to be better at dealing with that which you have placed your bet on and in turn help all these other people you’re so concerned about.

Yeah, I am someone who’s smart and disciplined because I work at it. There’s a reason my blood pressure stays steady while others ride the crazy train of hand wringing and anger and panic.

It’s kind of too bad you didn’t feel compelled to speak up sooner as most of your 63 total posts on this forum have happened quite recently.

I don’t put anyone on ignore. You never know when someone might say something helpful. I don’t need to like a person to learn from them.

I look forward to reading your future posts filled with helpful real time reactions (fyi, negativity can in fact be distributed without handwaving and jumping up and down - we have a few posters here that already do that quite well) so that the more emotional gamblers and investors amongst us can learn how to be less emotional.

 

[Big Dog]

Love the optics? Just wow... I know this is an investors forum where money rules everything else out there but wow... I REALLY, and I mean REALLY, hope someone exposes COVID-19 to the workforce there and a cluster develops. The sheer amount of arrogance and ignorance shown by Elon needs to have consequences. Clearly few here are willing to provide any... I never knew money was so much more important than peoples health and safety. The investment community here has shown without a doubt, money rules.

Jeff

EDIT: What I was trying to say here is the decisions being made that ignore the restrictions in place put people at risk unnecessarily and that actions have consequences. I don't believe in going to back and deleting posts or altering posts but I felt like at least better explaining what i thought in slight deeper context than what I originally posted.

ONLY 55 disagrees? Jeff, you can do better than that!

 

[Prunesquallor]

When the dust settles it's interesting to see whether Fremont produces US or EU variant. On the one hand, European FCA credits greatly improve automotive gross margin as seen in Q1 results. On the other hand, there is still plenty of inventory left in Europe. Order backlog must be stronger in US and China compared to EU.

Current M3 inventory situation in Europe according to tesla.com:

Belgium: inventory left
Denmark: inventory left
Spain: inventory left
France: inventory left
UK: inventory left
Ireland: inventory left
Luxembourg: inventory left
The Netherlands: inventory left
Austria: inventory left
Portugal: inventory left
Switzerland: inventory left
Sweden: inventory left
Finland: inventory left

Czech Republic: SOLD OUT
Germany: SOLD OUT
Iceland: SOLD OUT
Italy: SOLD OUT
Norway: SOLD OUT

Probably a couple of car carriers would be enough for this Q.

This will be interesting. I guess the RORO-trackers will soon tell us if there is going to be a last ditch effort for fresh exports. I sure wouldn’t want to risk snafus resulting in missed deliveries though.

If we interpreted the credits in the Q1 financials correctly, Tesla may have used up their Supercredit status (2x value per EV) in Q1, so the FCA pool may be less valuable now.

If this tweet is accurate, my guess it’s balls-to-the-walls US deliveries.

Third Row Tesla Podcast on Twitter

 

[Big Dog]

The penalty for violating the order is $1000 fine per day or 90 day in jail. Given SpaceX contracts with intelligence agencies and military I highly doubt Musk will be locked up.

Maybe Elon hops a ride on the next SpaceX flight: he can thumb his nose as he orbits over Alameda County.

 

[Creekstalker]

mods, how many dislikes does one need to get banned?

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!

I like the certainty of knowing I'm not the dumbest MFer on this forum.

Ban this dude and doubt starts creeping in...

 

[mblakele]

No.

The real question is how much authority does the Fremont mayor have over Police Dept Chief.

In some cities the mayor can fire the Police Chief at will and in others it is the city council.

In this case it's the City Manager. Sounds like a relatively weak mayor with few powers.

Fremont, California - Wikipedia

An elected mayor heads Fremont city government for a four-year term. The mayor chairs the city council, which has four elected council members in addition to the mayor. Two new seats will be added to the council beginning in 2018, for a total of seven seats when district-based elections are phased in. The council adopts the city's budget, and decides major policies. The city council appoints a city manager and city attorney. The city manager hires city staff, and manages day-to-day business. Advisory bodies work with the city council on some issues, to facilitate the council's final decisions. The mayor appoints advisory body members, subject to the approval of a majority of the Council. Most members serve four-year terms of office without pay, with the exception of planning commissioners.​

http://local.nixle.com/alert/6578544/

“I am pleased to appoint Kimberly Petersen as Fremont’s next Police Chief,” said City Manager Fred Diaz.​

 

[rk20]

The statement is right move since they cannot admit that they were overreaching.
If the county is smart, they should stop playing Elon's game and let it go.

There are a lot of things media need to cover. In five days, people shift to the next things.

If they were smart they would place monitors to make sure Tesla's guidelines were being followed. I think everyone would agree with that.

 

[RobStark]

Yes Elon questioned the experts in Epidemiology when he stated that the United States would be at zero new infections two weeks ago.

He never F'ing said this.

He said there would be "essentially" no new infections in the US by end of April.

How many are "essentially no new infections" in a country of 331M?

Dr Fuaci, Dr Birx, IHME, and Imperial College London have been wrong in their initial projections.

Projections change as new data comes in.

 

[MP3Mike]

If they were smart they would place monitors to make sure Tesla's guidelines were being followed. I think everyone would agree with that.

Are they going to do that at every place in the county, or are they just supposed to single out Tesla for extra scrutiny?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This will be interesting. I guess the RORO-trackers will soon tell us if there is going to be a last ditch effort for fresh exports. I sure wouldn’t want to risk snafus resulting in missed deliveries though.

If we interpreted the credits in the Q1 financials correctly, Tesla may have used up their Supercredit status (2x value per EV) in Q1, so the FCA pool may be less valuable now.

If this tweet is accurate, my guess it’s balls-to-the-walls US deliveries.

View attachment 540825
Third Row Tesla Podcast on Twitter

Who knows if they're targeting US or exports...but I don't think thats right about the FCA credits. I'm not at able to look it up right now but we've all been expecting around 200-250 million every quarter in 2020 in fca credits based on normal amount exports quarterly and it would be increasing on a quarterly basis in 2021 because the penalty is higher. But if anyone else wants to chime in that'd be great.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Alameda County Public Health Department on Twitter

 

[azaz]

Sean O'Kane on Twitter

“Tesla is opening up & called back furloughed employees in violation of local order. Those uncomfortable w/ coming in must take unpaid leave, forcing them to choose between $$ and coronavirus risk. Many now can’t take paid leave because Tesla cashed it out Tesla has already started making cars again at its California factory

 

[willow_hiller]

Sean O'Kane on Twitter

“Tesla is opening up & called back furloughed employees in violation of local order. Those uncomfortable w/ coming in must take unpaid leave, forcing them to choose between $$ and coronavirus risk. Many now can’t take paid leave because Tesla cashed it out Tesla has already started making cars again at its California factory

Honest question, does the Verge have multiple sources confirming these allegations? Or just anonymous "employees." I would not put it past TSLAQ to bombard news outlets with partially true stories peppered with false allegations while pretending to be employees.

 

[MP3Mike]

Many now can’t take paid leave because Tesla cashed it out

They can't take paid leave, because they have already been paid for it. (Because the law said Tesla had to.) Is that supposed to be a surprise?