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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Absurd? Tesla has a market cap nearly that of GM and they sell less than 4% of what GM does annually in units.

Yes, the technology is amazing but they seem to continue to struggle with execution.

You are annoyed the stock is depressed and yo-yo'ing but you have to look at the yo-yo coming out of the Tesla boardroom with yo-yo of model pricing, feature pricing, store closings, etc.

Whats GM's growth rate and projected growth rate over the next 5 years? 10 years? Yeah you can go ahead and stop listing GM as a comparison as to how Tesla should be valued.
 
Tony Sacconaghi of Bernstein maintains $325 TSLA price target, while explaining that the market is reacting to concerns about current demand.

He would prefer to see more emphasis by Tesla on long-term growth rather than near-term profitability. Meaning he would like to see the company raising funds to accelerate growth.

CNBC - this morning: Market nervous over Tesla Model 3 demand, says expert
 
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Massive investment always seems to accelerate delivery. My proof? Apollo program.

On a 5-10 year time horizon i definitely agree. Speed of technological progress isn't actually a function of time, it is a function of human effort, which is generally highly correlated to amount of investment.
However on a shorter timescale you meet non monetary bottlenecks and lead times from third parties which are out of your control no matter how much cash you have.
 
So what should Tesla's market cap be? $100B? $300B? Future growth potential only matters if the company has demonstrated they can reliably execute.

Ummmmmmm doubling your revenue year after year for many years in a row is the very definition of executing. Lets throw in margin expansion as well. Executed pretty damn well
 
Putting aside I really dislike the design. I have to ask “y”?

The mission is to electrify the worldwide fleet. Why not pick the most popular CUV/SUV style/shape to sell to the masses that already has proven curb appeal?

Guess you didn't see the memos that 75% of M3 are parts used by M3. Nor the one about low drag coefficients being important for EV range.
 
You are seriously still trying to claim you are right and still failing to read past the single arbitrarily highlighted sentence in the text?

It's not ~arbitrary~... It's what that sentence actually says... I'm not just making it up...
We can agree on that, right?

But believe whatever you want... You win.. I give... Not worth it..
 
On a 5-10 year time horizon i definitely agree. Speed of technological progress isn't actually a function of time, it is a function of human effort, which is generally highly correlated to amount of investment.
However on a shorter timescale you meet non monetary bottlenecks and lead times from third parties which are out of your control no matter how much cash you have.

My recollection could be wrong but I remember BMW bringing an unprecedented % of parts assembly in house in order to both improve margins and speed of execution.

Today they have the highest profit margins in the business even though they were seen as taking unnecessary risks 10-15 years ago.
 
Looks cooler than I expected, will eat a decent chunk of the Subaru crowd and all the Prius folks(obviously). This thing will cannibalize some M3 demand, but will be wildly popular enough to cover that by 10x. They're made on the same skateboard, so who cares? The folks who talked Elon into using the unmodified M3 frame made investors a lot of money.
I think we should avoid using the word "cannibalize" here. It would be silly, for example, to say that the LR version cannibalizes the SR version. The Model Y is simply an upsell from a comparable Model 3. Tesla will capture an additional $4k or so of revenue whenever a customer chooses a Y over the 3.
 
General question: why does Tesla/Elon deem it necessary to unveil the car 1,5 years before start of production? It seems to me there are way more disadvantages than advantages.

BMW 3 series sales started to slide after the announcement of the Model 3. Enough to annoy BMW into producing these fine pieces of art:


Remember? I do think Tesla wants to do something similar with the Model Y now. And by completing the order process people are more committed than the $1000 reservation the Model 3 had. Also, say you are torn between a Model 3 or a Model Y, or Model Y and Model X - now you can decide. All options are on the table. I think this move will a) destroy ICE demand and b) convince a few fence-sitters...
 
In the winter up north 375-400 miles would be a real boon because there would never be less than 200 miles. Also in the prairie states where there is very inadequate North-South SC coverage (and probably won't be for a very long time because there is no indication of any coming on the find-us page.

Surprised you completely missed the point. If 375-400 miles of range were in any way practical to achieve at this point in time Tesla would do it. Anyone paying any attention to the state of battery technologies knows that is not currently possible, so it's a completely unrealistic expectation.
 
If they were to begin production of any vehicle without an 'announcement' then Shorts and SEC would pile on once again, screaming 'unfair'.

Nah, public corporations are allowed to under-promise and over-deliver - under Jobs Apple was doing that every single year. :D

It's the over-promise and under-deliver that gets them into trouble - but most of that is allowed if it's just standard puffery.

(With the exception of Tesla, of course, who have a separate enforcement division allocated to them, and a separate set of rules. :D)