Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

If somebody you (@Singuy) meet is of the “we must return to the cave” mentality, please point out that there are insufficient caves, rather than suggest suicide. Two lives wasted if they are swayed.

Oh we spent a good part of the day arguing how there are insufficient caves. I finally suggested suicide as a point. One can always argue that they can be more "green" via living a reductive lifestyle. My point is, can't be anymore green than suicide so...

 

[ZeApelido]

My one time boss when I was working for a German bank described me as "not entirely incompetent". I have treasured his review, after his Bavarian spouse told me he thought I was the best person he and ever seen at my then level. Given the job in question I think he was generous.

FWIW, he drives a Tesla SP100D now. It is the first non-German car he has ever had. FWIW he was Austrian.

Omg, Fact Checking is your fath---- former boss!

 

[Mobius484]

Shortsville Times:

Norway Tesla* sales plummet!






*S&X

 

[Mader Levap]

Or they could just issue this guidance:

"The future is uncertain, there's only one thing certain about it: us trying to predict anything will only result in lawsuits.

But we are confident in guiding the following about Tesla's performance this year:

1. Tesla is in the business of making more cars, and this year we'll probably make between zero and 1 billion cars.
2. We have several factories under construction and have more planned, which might or might not be built by the end of this millennium.
3. Not all of them will be on Earth.
   
4. There are a lot of idiots in politics who make our life harder, and their actions might or might not affect demand for our products and our expenses of making them.
5. As things change so will we - we are adaptable.
6. Don't buy our stock. Really.
7. If you did buy our stock, see point 6 and shut up.
   
8. So long and thanks for all the fish. Tesla out."

... and then they could just concentrate on execution, cash generation and reporting the results, quarter after quarter.

I think something like above would be excellent 1 April announcement from Musk. Hint, hint.

 

[M3Rider]

Oh we spent a good part of the day arguing how there are insufficient caves. I finally suggested suicide as a point. One can always argue that they can be more "green" via living a reductive lifestyle. My point is, can't be anymore green than suicide so...

Actually it can. There are people living near land fills re-using stuff for their needs and making surroundings better looking.

There's also stuff like this you can do:
#trashtag: Viral challenge sends internet on garbage hunt - CNN

I actually do this for my neighborhood because I despise seeing trash around where I live.

 

[Fact Checking]

Judge Nathan just ordered oral hearing for April 4:

#36 in United States Securities and Exchange Commission v. Musk (S.D.N.Y., 1:18-cv-08865) – CourtListener.com

ALISON J. NATHAN, District Judge:

Both parties have indicated that an evidentiary hearing is not required on Plaintiff’s
Motion for Order to Show Cause. Dkt. Nos. 34_35.

Accordingly, the Court Will decide Plaintiff's motion
Without an evidentiary hearing.

The Court Will, however, hold oral argument,

Which is hereby Seheduled for April 4, 2019 at 2:00 p.m.

SO ORDERED.​

This is (IMHO) good news: Judge Nathan didn't see the SEC's case such a slam-dunk to immediately hold Elon in contempt.

This IMHO almost necessarily means that if to a judge it isn't obvious, how could Elon be held in contempt for clearly and obviously violating the settlement?

She also ordered "oral argument", which I believe means Elon will not have to be there.

Note another detail: if she wanted to decide on a technicality, she could have done so without a hearing. Oral arguments, to me, suggest that she is considering the constitutional arguments - which were certainly presented powerfully by Elon's team.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

……………….…...563

 

[sparcs]

• "The problem is that Tesla is battery cell starved, and will be until they expand GF1."

Why is Tesla still battery starved? I thought Panasonic just expanded capacity with three more lines. Unless this was delayed?

I vaguely recall in this topic that people did calculations and 35GWh of capacity was enough in the near term. Might have even been excess capacity.

i guess we will find out in the next earnings report/conference call.

 

[Duffer]

This scares me a little because you and a few others I can name have greatly influenced my investments. In fact my best move was the Solar City arbitrage discussed here and my worst moves were my personal feelings like buy at 350 for the 420 sale.

However your comments on legal process are totally unrealistic despite being fully justified. There will be no class action suit against the SEC or its lawyers. There is no cause of action or potential for compensation for counsel that I have seen.
I have seen no argument that Congress has passed a law authorizing such a suit which is required. While I am certainly not the best informed I can think of no obvious cause of action and apparently EMs lawyers have not come up with it either or they would have claimed relief.
My concern is that I am seeing people on here predicting improbable results from the litigation that IMO are not going to happen. This creates an expectation that is unlikely to happen (like bankruptcy for the shorts). It seems better for those of us who support Tesla to temper our expectations of the legal proceedings. No one is going to recover damages from the SEC or its lawyers for simple and elementary reasons. Outside of a few exceptions like civil rights you cannot revive damages from the government or its agents particularly lawyers representing the agency. This is not a Supreme Court issue and will be answered by the trial court and probably there will be no appeal. Hopefully EM will be vindicated on his tweet.

I agree that we (investors) should exercise restraint so as not to be upset (or even worse, over leveraged) if things don't unfold as we think/know they should. Government agencies receive the benefit of the doubt, except in the most egregious situations. Off the record, the Judge might very well voice her displeasure with the SEC's handling of this matter. However, even IF she rules against the SEC I would expect that she will keep her ruling generic enough so as not to highlight any deficiencies within the SEC.

Yes, it appears to be common sense that the SEC is over-reaching and therefore Elon will be exonerated. However, I would like to point out that if everything was based on common sense there wouldn't be a need for lawyers. Or said another way, lawyers over the years have spent considerable time and resources to ensure that their tentacles touch everyt... err I mean their livelihoods are guaranteed**.

**Apologies to our resident barristers

 

[NannerAirCraft]

Over 4000 Model 3 for Norway now, more than Model S did all last year in one month! I can't wait to see the numbers for the rest of Europe especially in Germany.

 

[aubreymcfato]

……………….…...563

It bears repeating... 563 Tesla sold in Norway, today.
This is incredible.
Tesla Registration Stats

 

[Wnuk]

Damn! Can we import some politicians from Europe and export some Republicans before all of our Teslas go overseas?

Why not just pack up and head to Europe instead?

 

[mongo]

Why is Tesla still battery starved? I thought Panasonic just expanded capacity with three more lines. Unless this was delayed?

I vaguely recall in this topic that people did calculations and 35GWh of capacity was enough in the near term. Might have even been excess capacity.

i guess we will find out in the next earnings report/conference call.

They did expand, which allowed them to turn the converted TE lines back into TE lines...
Unclear if they hit the 35GWh end of 2018 target Tesla Gigafactory 1 Timeline & Results — CleanTechnica Deep Dive | CleanTechnica

 

[Krugerrand]

Thanks, and like I said, this was a summary translation from a German friend who is very suspicious of BEVs being practical, and very partial to vehicles manufactured in Germany. Including my bolded type variation on the headline, just something I came up with to capture the sense I got from him.

However, he did recently complete the Monte Carlo car rally in an ancient Mazda Miata, customized with some of his own DIY work. He said that the route over the mountains to France could not be done in an EV, and was flabbergasted when I sent him a screenshot of the Tesla superchargers along his route, actually a screenshot of a planned route using abetterrouteplanner that would require only moderate length stops. He is a smart guy, concerned about climate change, and currently in love with hydrogen fuel cell technology.

You too might want to be considering a new friend. So many here stating how smart their friends are...and yet...

Makes me appreciate my dumber friends who get it despite not knowing if it’s a 1 or 8 that comes after 3.14. In fact, I’m pretty sure some think 3.14 is the price per ounce of nutmeg.

 

[SO16]

Had an argument with one of these greenies on reddit. She was hoping for Tesla's demise because Elon is arrogant and EVs are not the answer. Living like a monk however is the answer. I asked if she ever considered suicide as a way to reduce pollution further since that's even more green than what her current lifestyle is for the earth.

You should ask her why she is writing on reddit. Using plastic devices, electricity, etc. she should only be using scrolls.

 

[Pras]

Exactly what was expected as the judge would act like an adult in the room and ask the kids to cool it. There is no way judge would publicly rule against SEC as they are the government. Now she can talk to the parties to find a long term solution. SEC gets to save its face and Elon can get this monkey off his back.

Another point is about Elon or Tesla. Judge can ask why was Tesla not questioned but Elon was, when he had followed Tesla policy.

 

[Singuy]

You sure Tesla is still battery cell limited? Elon during the Y reveal said this is the year of the powerpack/energy products. With the SR introduced and not yet delivering in any kind of volume, why would Tesla sell more battery packs when they hit a 7k/week production bottle neck due to a lack of cells? You can't have the "year of the power pack" and still have production limited car production due to a lack of cells.

 

[AndyH]

It bears repeating... 563 Tesla sold in Norway, today.
This is incredible.
Tesla Registration Stats

This is just embarrassing for everyone else, especially for us Swedes since much of our EV sales are actually bought by Norwegians and then directly exported to Norway.

At least I thought we were winning tonights football but of course the Norwegians made a last second goal.

 

[adiggs]

Why is Tesla still battery starved? I thought Panasonic just expanded capacity with three more lines. Unless this was delayed?

I vaguely recall in this topic that people did calculations and 35GWh of capacity was enough in the near term. Might have even been excess capacity.

i guess we will find out in the next earnings report/conference call.

Tesla is cell starved because, napkin math, 35-40 GWh of current capacity out of GF1 is good for 400-500k worth of cars per year.

To supply 1 million cars in a year, they will need something more like 70-80 GWh.

And that's all assuming that they don't ship any Tesla Semi's. Semi's will eat 1 GWh per 1000 trucks built - North America is a 300k/year market. If they want to provide 10%, then that is 30k trucks / year or 30 GWh/year for Tesla Semi (currently 0).


Tesla could have capacity of 400 GWh instead 40 GWh today, and still be cell starved (my read).


A quickie estimate by @jhm for worldwide consumption of cells is 10 TWh. Using that estimate, the world as total constructed capacity of around 2.5% and is using a little under 2% of the eventual need. The world is cell starved, and will continue to be cell started even with 100% year over year growth rates in cell production for years.

(More details in separate thread, Sizing the worldwide battery market, this forum)

 

[Fact Checking]

There is no way judge would publicly rule against SEC as they are the government.

Federal judges are ruling against the government all the time.

Now she can talk to the parties to find a long term solution.

That's not what contempt motions are about: the SEC has moved for Elon Musk to be held in contempt and face sanctions. The judge will decide whether to grant or deny the motion. This isn't going to be a settlement negotiation round but oral arguments.

The SEC (and Elon) will win or lose the motion.