Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/f01527b1-a7c9-40b1-ac4a-4bf628129143

Lots of dumpingz. Why doesn’t he exercise the options and hold?

 

[BioSehnsucht]

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/f01527b1-a7c9-40b1-ac4a-4bf628129143

Lots of dumpingz. Why doesn’t he exercise the options and hold?

If you add up the Acquired and Disposed rows, they equal out to the same number acquired and disposed. So basically sold 38540 shares around $227~$230 and bought just as many around ~$30, or basically gained ~$200/share x 38540 shares or ~$7.5mil (minus whatever trade fees and so on, taxes, etc...)

Seems like a smart play to me as it's basically free money, if you wanted money now (perhaps he's buying a new home and wants to pay cash, or ... )

Considering how volatile the stock can be a guaranteed payday may be worthwhile. Sure there's potential for higher profits if you hold forever, but if you have things to buy now, that doesn't do you any good.

 

[Pras]

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/f01527b1-a7c9-40b1-ac4a-4bf628129143

Lots of dumpingz. Why doesn’t he exercise the options and hold?

Is he standing for re-election ? Brad buss?

 

[SPadival]

CFO and CEO signing off on purchase orders is the real problem. That's only done in extreme near-BK crisis situations, or by extreme micro-managers who can't hire competent people and delegate. Neither is a good look for a growth stock with sky-high valuation metrics.

In the interest of transparency and full disclosure, are you the same Doggy that Hannah Montana skeptic aka Larry the Fossil guy found to be formidable?

At this rate, you will run out of pencils while making “structurally bankrupt” predictions

doggydogworld's Comments | Seeking Alpha

Edit: link to seeking alpacas article screen shot above

The Montana Skeptic 23-Point Short Thesis (Plus Caveats) - Montana Skeptic | Seeking Alpha

 

[Papafox]

@Papafox thanks for your helpful post.

I might just add that there probably is a large chunk of TSLA investors, like myself, that are not quite able to adjust ourportfolio in a efficient manner (accounting for taxes and whatnot).
Psychologically, "buy and hold" is nice because it's a very simple strategy. I just buy few shares when I can, when the price is low enough and I have spare money. No margin, of course.

I'd love to be a more rational and efficient investor, but with Tesla it's very difficult to sell high: FOMO is powerful and you always think it will skyrocket... I suffer that feeling much more than I suffer these dips (I'm down 11%, so not very much). Also, "groupthink" in our beloved forum just amplify these feelings, in both directions.

@aubreymcfato , you bring up an important point. Because of tax consequences, many investors are not inclined to do some trimming at the top of the trading range. I trade from an IRA and so the tax consequences are zero with this approach, but there's nothing wrong with buy and hold when the potential of a stock like TSLA is immense and you have time to let the growth story play out. In both scenarios, though, one needs to keep a careful eye on the company's progress.

 

[bdy0627]

There were supposed to be several support levels between 250 and here. We went through them as if they didn't exist. We broke out of a 'bowl formation' a few months ago, which would have meant much higher prices. The breakout floundered. TA-proponents only remind us of their successesful predictions, they never talk about those misses.

Stocks do tend to move level to level, but certainly not entirely predictably. Basically, "if this then that." It's based upon human psychology, which can be seen in the stock market via stock movements. Some of it can be predictable to an extent, not certainties, but probabilities. The stock market isn't random, as we all know following TSLA. I'm not sure why, but there seems to be an art to it as much as science, but there is some usefulness to TA if you are following the stock's daily movements.

 

[BornToFly]

So then we know that your delivery specialist has no idea what they're talking about because some people have already received theirs......

Not a single Performance that I can find on this forum or the Tesla forum. There is ONE guy with a Blue Long Range that received his Model S....

 

[Doggydogworld]

I'm really surprised there are not more posts about demand right now on this forum .

Don't utter the D word or you will be banned

The last 4 pages of the Near-future quarterly financial projections thread has a lot of posts about sustained demand..

 

[EVNow]

Most people don’t realize Tesla needs to procure an entire local supply chain (excluding suppliers they already have in China). This is extremely complex and takes time.

Hopefully they've been doing that already. They should be able to validate the parts in Fremont.

What if I tell you that he still reviews and approve every single hiring decision at least the software side of the company?

Weren't Google founders famously doing this (atleast for a long time) ?

 

[BornToFly]

It wasn't hard to sell high last December, was it? Merely half a year ago? Compare these opportunities to a 2% CD for example. Now, I'm not saying my stock investing skills have earned me greater than 2% over my investing career, but I'm just saying the opportunity WAS there for any of us if we were smart enough.

Why would we sell last December when we were told Q1 might be profitable and Tesla would be profitable every quarter after that?

If we were told they were going to have a major delivery problems and a big loss in Q1, and probably a loss in Q2, you would have a point.... Now I know there might be a loss in Q2, but I'm trapped with margin calls and more than a 7 figure paper loss because I believed Elon, so I'm completely screwed and have to hope for a recovery to at least 320 the next few months.

 

[AcesDealt]

Tesla Carriers

12 boats on the list for this Q thus far. My guess looking at the time it takes to get to China and Europe, that these are probably the only boats that will have carried across cars to be delivered this Q. So I wonder what it would mean if boats stop showing up now to theoretically pick up cars that won't be delivered. Back to wave? A cautionary signal?

 

[EVNow]

In the interest of transparency and full disclosure, are you the same Doggy that Hannah Montana skeptic aka Larry the Fossil guy found to be formidable?

He sure is - and he is open about it. His comments you linked there are about the same as his comments here.

 

[Cobbler]

ARK fund bought $TSLA again

 

[Maitri982]

Is it? The major advantage the Shanghai factory has is that they're mostly copying an existing line. I'm sure they're planning a few improvements in layout (no packing things too close together),... but they've probably already ordered essentially all the equipment and know where it's going. We know they've ordered the Model *Y* machines already, so I think we can assume the Shanghai machines have also been ordered. If it's essentially the same as the Fremont line, it's a pretty cut-and-dried installation job. They should have cars coming out in September.

...which is not to say that they'll have a lot of cars coming out in September. Remember how long it took to ramp up from the first Model 3 to 3000/week?

Would really love to be wrong about this, but I am in the "I will eat my hat if they are producing cars in September" club right now.

I will be happy if they are producing in the thousands/wk by EOY and think that may be doable.

 

[DocZ]

Why would we sell last December when we were told Q1 might be profitable and Tesla would be profitable every quarter after that?

If we were told they were going to have a major delivery problems and a big loss in Q1, and probably a loss in Q2, you would have a point.... Now I know there might be a loss in Q2, but I'm trapped with margin calls and more than a 7 figure paper loss because I believed Elon, so I'm completely screwed and have to hope for a recovery to at least 320 the next few months.

This post resonated with me as I am in a similar position. Unfortunately we all believed Elon. I love the guy, he’s incredible, but he just oversaw nearly a 50% drop in market cap. That is disastrous. I hope he learned his lesson. Nobody gives a *sugar* about robotaxis, people want TANGIBLE goals and actual execution.

 

[Doggydogworld]

In the interest of transparency and full disclosure, are you the same Doggy that Hannah Montana skeptic aka Larry the Fossil guy found to be formidable?

What are the odds that two different investors following TSLA chose the same goofy nickname?

If you read my comments on the "structurally bankrupt" article you'll see I argued against the $20k++ SG&A per car premise. Bears felt SG&A per car would stay high as Model 3 ramped because Tesla was misclassifying COGS as SG&A, I countered that SG&A was temporarily inflated by the SCTY acquisition, and SG&A per car would fall as Model 3 ramped and as Tesla quietly wound SCTY down. The latter took a lot longer than I predicted, but SG&A per car did fall to ~7k/car in late 2018 before bouncing back above 10k in Q1.

SG&A per car is a pretty important metric for Tesla, and easy to misread.

 

[powertoold]

Unfortunately we all believed Elon. I love the guy, he’s incredible, but he just oversaw nearly a 50% drop in market cap. That is disastrous. I hope he learned his lesson.

It seems to me Elon has this habit of finding hills to die on, and it's tough for him to let go once he finds a hill. There was no need for him to die on the FSD hill, but from what he's said so far, he can't really back down.

There's a lot of this type of behavior. Some times it works out and some people notice, but when it doesn't, then it's a big blow to his credibility. The media tends to focus more on things that don't work out.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Tesla Carriers

12 boats on the list for this Q thus far. My guess looking at the time it takes to get to China and Europe, that these are probably the only boats that will have carried across cars to be delivered this Q. So I wonder what it would mean if boats stop showing up now to theoretically pick up cars that won't be delivered. Back to wave? A cautionary signal?

Last boat to China arrived at Pier 80 on March 7th in Q1, so they might squeeze one more in this quarter. Either way, scheduling 12 (or possibly 13) boats in the same time frame as 16 last quarter is a strong sign they are unwinding the wave. The boats haven't spent more time loading this quarter, which implies the same number of cars per boat. Which further implies they are making both domestic and overseas cars currently, unlike last quarter when they made overseas only through early March. That supports the unwinding theory.

Confirmation will come if/when we see boats scheduled to dock after June 8th.

 

[Pras]

Tesla Carriers

12 boats on the list for this Q thus far. My guess looking at the time it takes to get to China and Europe, that these are probably the only boats that will have carried across cars to be delivered this Q. So I wonder what it would mean if boats stop showing up now to theoretically pick up cars that won't be delivered. Back to wave? A cautionary signal?

Technically these ships have 6-7k capacity. I remember Zach emphasizing that we are sending full ships. With Canada being a big draw and SR+ being the big US draw, we would not expect EU and China to be more than 40k cars (assuming Troy Teslike’s 74k forecast). Anything more will be upside.

In retrospect I am guessing (hope someone clarifies it) last quarter many ships were sent half filled. This quarter because the orders are standardized (less option variants), the ships can be filled to max, and less number of ship trips should be needed.

I am looking for someone here to opine on this.

 

[JohnDinger]

Technically these ships have 6-7k capacity.

Source? Googling "capacity of ship number of cars" says that the highest capacity ship holds 8500 cars, second highest capacity is 6200, and below that are under 4500 or lower.

A quick search and it doesn't look like Tesla is using the 8500 or 6200 type ships.