No. It’s vague. Probably deliberately, to reduce Osborne effect on MX sales. Soon enough they are going to have to play all their cards on global MY launch. Perhaps in a few weeks in the Q4 ER?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Cirrus MS100D
Member
This. After the presentation/celebration today, this now seems more like Elon and his philosophy is cultivating a revolution from the customer on up. “Join our team or get left behind” was what it felt like to me.
We just finished data collection for Europe in 2019 in our wiki (link see my footer):
Thanks to @mrdoubleb, @lklundin, @Big Blue 1011 for help with the data collection this month and especially to @Troy for creating the amazing google spreadsheet that powers the wiki!
- 35,672 Teslas were registered
- This is 17% more than in Q3 2019 which was the best quarter so far
- To put this in perspective, in both Q3 and Q4 alone (each quarter individually, not the sum) more Tesla cars were registered than in the whole year of 2018!
- Theses numbers are dominated by the sales to our Dutch friends - they bought 47% of the Teslas registed in Europe in Q4 2019
! Go Netherlands!
Your footer is not visible on the mobile site, so here it is: Tesla Europe Registration Stats
Exactly! Learning about TSLA also opened my eyes to the truth about "False News", which I largely became numb to when the orange guy threw the term around profusely. Then I saw the blatant misdirection (Tesla FUD) by MSNBC, Reuters, Consumer Reports, Major newspapers, other trusted sources... And, unbelievably, I still catch myself soaking up every word in these publications on other subjects as factual, I guess because they sprinkle in enough legitimate reporting to disarm our skepticism.The upward stock movement today thus far has been extremely impressive.
My guess is that it is a continuation of market optimism, China publicity bringing more investors on board, Wall St. funds re-evaluating short term prospects...
If true, it is just unfathomable that the much bigger news that truly increases Tesla’s future value, is going largely unrecognized...
Elon said:
“Model Y will also have some advanced manufacturing technology that we will reveal in the future. I think it will be exciting to show the kind of manufacturing technology associated with the Model Y and it will be exciting to learn about these technologies.”
Does anyone on Wall St., with any sense whatsoever, doubt that this WILL BE very impressive? Tesla showcasing yet more manufacturing prowess soon that will just increase their already large lead in COGS most likely on ALL FUTURE PRODUCTS.
There’s just such a disconnect (though admittedly less than last June), between Tesla’s more and more obvious competitive edge and Wall Street’s valuation.
Becoming an expert in Tesla (in large part thanks to this thread) is fully awakening me to how naive I was before to trust the “experts”. The talking heads on CNBC, news shows, columnists and Wall St. analysts all speak with such conviction, that the uninformed just assume they MUST know what they’re talking about!
I also used to believe that the big Wall St. funds driving the markets must really know what they’re doing, right? I mean aren’t those managers earning million dollar salaries indicating they must be brilliant, financially savvy...? Now even that image is crumbling. They’re not really that extraordinary, and very, very few know as much, or have as well thought out opinions as many on this thread.
I.e. Becoming extremely knowledgeable on Tesla has taught me that many times when someone speaks on Tesla with great confidence using an impressive voice and demeanor, they’re just flat out wrong! And that seems to indicate that same thing is probably true in most other areas as well!
Skepticism is a highly underrated quality. Although I admit it is a shame as it would be a far better world if people wouldn’t pretend they know things they don’t and so skepticism would be needed far less often. That’s just not the one we live in
EDIT- It's not really "fake news" It's basically paid lies, not news - and will spread itself faster if we don't manage to counter it somehow. Thanks, @SteveG3 .
Last edited:
My simple math says we're not stopping til $578. Why? I figure the shorts and weak longs pushed us down from $378 all the way to crazy low of $178. That was $200 drop. So adding $200 back to what they stole at $378 gives us $578 short term top. At least that's how I'm playing it. I was on margin all the way down to $178 and it was tough. I will get off margin at around $578.
it’s not very much “news,” it’s not very much “fake news,” it is, quite a lot, for-profit, pay-to-play, mass media programming
As an example, one can get two Sep. $540-$640 spreads for the price of one $540 call (just under $40x100), or two $640 calls (just under $20x100). So if one were to hold onto their spreads all the way to expiry (which nobody does), and the stock ended up at $640, then the two spreads would earn twice as much as the single call $540 call. But anything over $640 the spread owner wouldn't gain anything extra - they'd just get their "2*(100x * $640-$540)-the cost of the spreads" = e.g. a bit over $16k (400%) in profit; their max is set in stone. But you'd need a stock price of $740 or over for the single $540 call buyer or 2x $640 call buyers to come out ahead.
Basically, spreads say, "I want a more bullish position than stock, but I do have limits"
In practice with calls or spreads, you don't hold to expiry, of course; you roll when you feel the delta and theta are no longer in line with your targets as an investor. The optimal decision is thus based more around trajectories... e.g. are we on a trajectory which would make choice A better than choice B at expiry? And the trajectory requirements aren't linear, since theta burn increases exponentially the closer you get to expiry.
But in general, I like spreads because I can sell the unlikely upper ends to gamblers, take the "more sure thing", and resell the upper end if the stock falls or as theta devalues it.
Last edited:
ZachF
Active Member
Chickenlittle
Banned
What I can’t figure out is what lunatic would attempt to drive it back down at the open? Deep ockets with more pride than sense or desperate people?
They are dreaming of the days when a big sell off would turn the stock red and trigger stop losses. The pre-market gap up plus general joy joy feelings about TSLA have neutered that tactic.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
A 1% or 2% move does not constitute a true short squeeze and I definitely wouldn't consider mid-$400's to be "irrational levels".
It's tough to put a present value on a company that potentially has such a high medium-term future value (say two years). Most investors would love to earn 15%/year if they felt their principle was relatively secure. For 30%/year investors are willing to take substantial risks. If things don't go as well as expected it may just take longer for their investment to pay off. It's normal for a fast-growing company to have to "grow into" it's valuation. Tesla offers a good blend of projected strong growth while their technological lead offers a good amount of protection against them being just a "flash in the pan" that is quickly made irrelevant by the size and standing of their forward-thinking and nimble competitors (a little joke there).
In other words, if you thought Tesla was conservatively valued at $310, it's awfully tough to say it's not worth 3 times as much based upon reasonable projected growth discounted for risk of principle. $450 is not even half-way there. Another way to put this is to say with such uncertainty as to exactly how well Tesla will perform over the mid-term, it's present value could vary by many hundreds of dollars. I expect this to be recognized by the market with very large daily/weekly and monthly price swings. It's not unusual to see 20% (or even 40%) price moves in such situations. 20% of $450 is $90.
Enjoy the continuing ride!
China is making a meteorically smart move by partnering up with Tesla. It is trying to achieve 2 objectives:
1. Change the stereotype on made in China products, both in term of product (low quality, cheap) and processes (large construction projects that generate no profit)
2. Save itself from pollution
And here comes Tesla. What's better way to positively change your country's image than partnering up with the hottest, for better or worse, company in the world? Now that Germany is having to fill its shoes this is a massive PR victory for China. Expect China's support for Tesla to only accelerate.
Oh no Elon tweeted about PornHub. Someone cut him off.
I couldn't pass up buying another 10 after the morning dip. The shorts aren't smart but they are predictable.
Unfortunately the US has leaders who think windmill noise causes cancer and that coal is the future. Might not be a bad idea to learn Mandarin folks. We also spend a trillions every decade in the middle east.
China understands that green tech is the next internet.
Unfortunately the US has leaders who think windmill noise causes cancer and that coal is the future. Might not be a bad idea to learn Mandarin folks. We also spend a trillions every decade in the middle east.
I have never been this excited to get up in the mornings. Checking $TSLA within second of opening my eyes has taken priority over all things tech or biological. I keep thinking we're at the top of the rollercoaster ride... click click click, but it keeps going!
Still holding all shares. I want my certificates framed and not let anyone short mine ever!
Still holding all shares. I want my certificates framed and not let anyone short mine ever!
see post #8638 from July of 2015 : )
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
“I actually have a theory that a large chunk of the multi-year short position in Tesla is just a marketing expense of some massively wealthy oil nations, corporations, and individuals. In other words, being short 15% of Tesla since it was $30 until now would have cost about $5 billion. $5 billion over 3 years is a very small cost to these entities, and they may be betting that as part of a campaign (in addition to getting gibberish pumped out through the media) to dampen enthusiasm for Tesla and EVs for years it may have extraordinary gains in terms of incremental retained oil sales. This is all conjecture on circumstantial evidence, and could be totally wrong... but even with the surge in Tesla shares from ~$40 to $190 in the Spring and Summer of 2013, did the short position ever go below 20%?”
Krugerrand
Meow
Yes, I know you believe that. But you missed the point. By Tesla building in Germany, Germany just secured their industry regardless of the outcome for their original home brands. Look at the article that already came out about the other OEMs chatting up Brandenberg government, wondering why Tesla chose that area and not the standard OEM region. They want to know what they missed. Tesla hasn’t even put the first pile driver into the ground and the OEMs are in a panic.
The governments can’t make their citizens buy cars they don’t want. That’s a fact. You think those governments will start to incentivize the purchase of gas and diesel cars suddenly to prop up their OEMs? Of course not.
Sure, they can give bigger and bigger incentives to purchase locally made EVs, which aren’t Teslas therefore don’t have the range, the fast charging capabilities, OTA updates, arcade, EAP features etc... but the people, particularly outside of the home country, aren’t going to be buying. So that won’t work.
Don’t you see, people don’t want other EVs especially when given an opportunity to own a Tesla. People settle for other EVs because Tesla doesn’t make a micro version that’ll fit in their parking spot/whathaveyou. Tesla makes the best EVs, they just don’t come in enough variety to work for everyone on the planet - yet.
If Tesla China designs and makes a smaller EV, in a hatchback; you realize what happens, right? Or if you prefer, if Tesla Germany designs specifically for non-Scandinavian tastes in European vehicle size.
That leaves Japan. Who they going to sell their fuel cell cars to then? This isn’t simply about local purchasing, this is about international purchasing.
larmor
Active Member
The many articles in the past 5 plus years covering Tesla have a unique choice of words, or diction. For example, delivering M3 in China from a factory which was a field of mud a year ago and news of MY in China coming is met with numerous articles of Elon 'dancing'. If boeing opened a plant in one years time in Shanghai and produced planes, the choice of words in reporting would be vastly different.
While it may be a conspiracy theory that there is a dark hand(s) working against Tesla, it would not be surprising, because tesla has targeted the end users of oil-gas, which in of itself is a multi trillion dollar industry, but also involves the military/weapons manufacturers, another multi trillion dollar industry which survives on protection of the oil product. Another disappointment are the numerous lives wagered on the protection of this asset. Finally our own air and climate is eroding with the use of the oil product.
Let's get more solar GFs up as well, everyone needs electricity and unitizing it to the household or multi unit buildings will benefit everyone!
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
