Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[buttershrimp]

One day, there will be a movie made about this forum and us .

”HODLing Pattern”

More like “Slumdog Millionaires”

 

[StealthP3D]

So we should probably temper expectations for any meaningful production this year IMO. Doesn't matter long term because they will figure it out but there is risk here for delays I am not seeing people recognize.

There is always risk. But I'm not sure how profitable it's been to bet against Elon Musk. In my experience, most of the time that there is no risk there is an equal lack of profit. It's all about picking the bets that have a good risk/reward ratio. You can bet against Elon and one of these days you might actually be right. But after how many losses?

Don't bet against Elon.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Watching some technicals diverge at the Open. MA(200) at 586.82 while the Lower-BB was 548.04

View attachment 663408

Knowing very little about charts.......the best I can come up with is the south-facing labile nature of these bands is telling me to sell puts at a high premium. Accurate?

 

[buttershrimp]

So I learned I don't actually "own" TSLA shares, at least in the sense that we consider owning something in everyday language (like, how "I own my car," or "I own my clothes"). Read the fine print on your margin account application (page 15, "Add Options Trading and Margin to your Account," for Schwab clients). By opening an account with your broker, you have agreed to loan your securities to your broker at their whim and calling, whenever they feel like, without notifying you. Also, while "your" shares are out on loan, even though you get proxy instructions to vote in corporate elections, those shares voting power goes to the party currently lending your shares. Also, when your shares are being lent, the broker of course receives interest payment for lending, and is incentivized to keep the loan going for as long as possible, while you receive nothing, hahaha, not even your dividends.

You can't make this stuff up, it's all in the fine print.

Here it is from Schwab:

8. Loan Consent. You agree that Securities and Other Property held
in your margin account, now or in the future, may be borrowed (either
separately or together with the property of others) by us (acting
as principal) or by others. You agree that Schwab may receive and
retain certain benefits (including, but not limited to, interest on
collateral posted for such loans) to which you will not be entitled. You
acknowledge that in certain circumstances, such borrowings could
limit your ability to exercise voting rights or receive dividends, in whole
or in part, with respect to the Securities and Other Property lent. You
understand that for Securities and Other Property that are lent by
Schwab, the dividends paid on such Securities and Other Property
will go to the borrower. No compensation or other reimbursements will
be due to you in connection with such borrowings. However, if you are
allocated a substitute payment in lieu of dividends, you understand that
such a payment may not be entitled to the same tax treatment as may
have been applied to the receipt of a dividend. You agree that Schwab
is not required to compensate you for any differential tax treatment
between dividends and payments in lieu of dividends. Schwab may
allocate payments in lieu of dividends by any mechanism permitted by
law, including by using a lottery allocation system.

But when I phone call Schwab instead of hold music, I get to listen to real time market updates read by someone who oozes old money elitism “the VIX rose in early morning trading”…. I can literally hear the cardigan tied neatly around his neck and shoulders.

Also, for what it’s worth I’m planning on red days until Wednesday when FED minutes are released.

 

[tschmidty]

There is always risk. But I'm not sure how profitable it's been to bet against Elon Musk. In my experience, most of the time that there is no risk there is an equal lack of profit. It's all about picking the bets that have a good risk/reward ratio. You can bet against Elon and one of these days you might actually be right. But after how many loses?

Don't bet against Elon.

Definitely not betting against Elon eventually getting there, but betting against Elon's timelines being optimistic is probably a money making play!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Knowing very little about charts.......the best I can come up with is the south-facing labile nature of these bands is telling me to sell puts at a high premium. Accurate?

Lol, ur barking up the wrong wookie. I no play option rulette.

Cheers!

 

[scaesare]

As what?

I say "swinging".

Determining what version thereof, is left as an exercise for the reader...

 

[StealthP3D]

Every new giga factory right now has a battery cell production plant. I suspect there will be a new model Y version announced with probably over 400 miles of range with a bigger price tag.

That seems likely but only as a transitory situation. The trend is for lower car prices with the same or more capability. In the longer-term, the 400 mile version will have the same or lower price as the LR today.

What the 4680 cell will likely enable is the mass production of huge volumes of Model Y with 300 plus miles of range at a very affordable price. With the structural pack (and the elimination of battery modules), I think the economics of different ranges will be advantageous to Tesla and the consumer. Tesla will likely have finer gradations between range/price with similar margins for Tesla regardless of which variant best fits the consumer. This will be hailed as a huge breakthrough in the auto industry and enable huge volumes of sales of the same model car at different price points, all with similar margins.

 

[thx1139]

There are no plans to move Model Y production to Austin. It has ALWAYS been the plan to deliver West Coast cars from Fremont, and Models Y for customers East of the Rockies from Austin.

As more products get added to Giga Texas production, they'll be distributed to minimize logistics cost, but not by vastly increasing CapEx requirements. ie: Cybertrucks sold on the West Coast will come from Austin.

Elon made this statement of intent YEARS ago, and nothing has changed.

That doesnt mean they dont switch to Austin while they retrofit the Fremont plant to build the newly designed Model Y and newly designed Model 3 that use castings for front and back and use structural battery pack.

Step 1: Austin begins to ramp up new Model Y production. Once it hits high enough level.
Step 2: Shut down Model Y line in Fremont. Retrofit line for new Model 3.
Step 3: Begin production of new Model 3 line. Once it hits high enough level.
Step 4: Shut down Model 3 line in Fremont. Retrofit line for new Model 3 or new Model Y.

Keep repeating until all lines use new design.

 

[asburgers]

I love you guys. We'll be fine. Less fighting. More sea shanties.

 

[dl003]

Lol, ur barking up the wrong wookie. I no play option rulette.

Cheers!

Are you suggesting that option traders are mostly throwing darts at the chain, driven by little more than blind faith and ego?

 

[Nocturnal]

Watch your eyes?! The in-car monitoring system needs to verify that the driver remains in their seat with their seat belt fastened until the vehicle comes to a full and complete stop at the destination/gate. Back-seat drivers are now literally a menace.

I think it should routinely check your temperature via rectal thermometer too. Can't be too safe.

Concept:

 

[StealthP3D]

So IF this was on AP (which is a big if because I don't understand how it can hit an object like this), the cause is undoubtedly texting. I know the FUD won't go away once Tesla starts using the in car camera to watch our eyes, but it will improve safety. No two ways about that. People need to treat AP with more respect.

A Tesla running on Autopilot smashed into a deputy's patrol vehicle in Washington state, police say, causing 'significant damage'

The Snohomish County Sheriff's Office described the crash as a reminder that Autopilot "cannot be relied upon to get you safely" to your destination.

www.businessinsider.com

People need to treat driving with more respect. I'm afraid you are falling for the FUD because cars have been running into parked patrol cars on the highway long before AP was even a thing.

I doubt the rate of this type of incident has even increased since AP was introduced - it's just that the media finds it more newsworthy than when a distracted driver does the same thing in another make of auto without AP. Have you ever heard the media question whether cruise control was a factor in such a crash?

No, I didn't think so. Don't fall for the FUD that is designed to harvest natural human tendencies to create a false narrative.

 

[jerry33]

Uh, we've been looking forward to Tesla showing a profit with $0 in emissions credits since early 2020. It always seems to be next quarter.

What missing in this calculation is the addition of the R&D. If you're (not you personally) going to subtract regulatory credits, then you have to add R&D back in.

 

[viridi]

Capping monsters out big time this a.m. Lots of capping, especially as TSLA dared to get within a few pennies of green.

 

[henchman24]

That doesnt mean they dont switch to Austin while they retrofit the Fremont plant to build the newly designed Model Y and newly designed Model 3 that use castings for front and back and use structural battery pack.

Step 1: Austin begins to ramp up new Model Y production. Once it hits high enough level.
Step 2: Shut down Model Y line in Fremont. Retrofit line for new Model 3.
Step 3: Begin production of new Model 3 line. Once it hits high enough level.
Step 4: Shut down Model 3 line in Fremont. Retrofit line for new Model 3 or new Model Y.

Keep repeating until all lines use new design.

This is how I think it will go. Not likely to start happening until Q2 2022 (after the full ramp in Austin), but I'm expecting Freemont Y lines to shutdown first for the re-tool and revamping the 3 makes sense.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That doesnt mean they dont switch to Austin while they retrofit the Fremont plant to build the newly designed Model Y and newly designed Model 3 that use castings for front and back and use structural battery pack.

Step 1: Austin begins to ramp up new Model Y production. Once it hits high enough level.
Step 2: Shut down Model Y line in Fremont. Retrofit line for new Model 3.
Step 3: Begin production of new Model 3 line. Once it hits high enough level.
Step 4: Shut down Model 3 line in Fremont. Retrofit line for new Model 3 or new Model Y.

Keep repeating until all lines use new design.

Haha, YES it does. You know what you're missing? Provisions for the 35+ GWh/yr supply of 2170 bty cells currently under contract from Panasonic America to Tesla in Fremont.

You know, the supply for which these two companies just renewed their contract for the next 3 years?

Think about it. If Tesla won't turn off their 10-yr running supply of Panasonic 18650 cells for the refreshed S/X why/how on earth would they turn off the bty cell printing machine at Giga Nevada.

Hint: they will not. It's all about the BATTERIES.

 

[Mike Smith]

There are a lot of people on twitter suggesting Tesla will be excluded from subsidies for not being unionized. That would be unconstitutional. Tesla has zero control over whether their employees want to be part of a union.

Biden is saying the bill will create union jobs simply because the vast majority of the companies where jobs will be created are unionized.

 

[wtlloyd]

People need to treat driving with more respect. I'm afraid you are falling for the FUD because cars have been running into parked patrol cars on the highway long before AP was even a thing.

I doubt the rate of this type of incident has even increased since AP was introduced - it's just that the media finds it more newsworthy than when a distracted driver does the same thing in another make of auto without AP. Have you ever heard the media question whether cruise control was a factor in such a crash?

No, I didn't think so. Don't fall for the FUD that is designed to harvest natural human tendencies to create a false narrative.

It should be noted, the patrol car was stopped to assist in an incident where the driver had...run into a power pole along side the roadway. The common denominator - vehicles, while moving, can on occasion hit things.

 

[viridi]

Capping monsters out big time this a.m. Lots of capping, especially as TSLA dared to get within a few pennies of green.

Nice to see our "friends" get steamrolled.