Unless Cruise and GM are completely delusional,I no longer believe Tesla Robotaxi will be as lucrative.
The Origin would definitely be a preferable ride to a Model 3. Much easier entry/exit, tons of legroom, sitting up high…. In fact if they converted the interior to 4 separate compartments with nice touchscreen, workstation, recliner…, it would make a great commuter vehicle.
The stunning part is their claim of half the cost of a current EV SUV, when they hit scale. Maybe $35k? With 1M mile life that’s less than $0.05 / passenger mile! That does not leave a lot of room, for Tesla to beat them.
If they have enough miles, then even the cost of mapping and map maintenance may amortize down to a low cost per mile.
I guess removing airbags, wheel, pedals… saves enough money to pay for the 40 sensors?
Tesla needs a dedicated purpose built Robotaxi. I am sure Tesla can win on efficiency eking out another few cents / mile advantage.
On the good side from a Tesla investor perspective, they’re only claiming a few thousand San Francisco miles between accidents (or human interventions where it might have wrecked?), so they have a long way to go to get to the safety needed. We really don’t know how close Tesla is at this point.
Also they’re projecting a price only $5k annually below Uber in San Fran.
Main questions:
1. Is GM delusional at hitting a cost of $35k, and how long to hit scale?
2. How long for them to hit safety/nuisance intervention targets compared to Tesla?
3. Will Tesla provide a very nice pure Robotaxi soon. Of course I do not believe scale would be the problem for Tesla.
4. Maybe it’s OK to have competition, as if they hit cheap enough, there will be a very large demand.
5. Does their price assume you have to share the vehicle. In which case, it’s a pretty high price.