Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I assume they are going to roll it out to X number of people a week. Probably either a minimum safety threshold (say it's 90+) + the length of the ownership of FSD, or just taking the top safest people each round (if they have enough miles to make it useful).

I mostly agree, although I expect Tesla will add new users per each iteration of the software, not "per week". With pauses, when Tesla decides it needs a rewrite.

I also expect regional rollouts, so that the first beneficiaries of the "beta button" come from the SF Bay area. That all comes down to having the spare CPU capacity to conduct the required NN training.

Cheers!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I BTC my rolled calls from last week for 30k in losses. Still great to see the stock going up though. Yeah HODL shares!

It seems that we are on the cusp of a big move and I don't want to lose any shares. If Shanghai is really outputting at a 800k annualized rate I'll be the first to say I didn't see that coming...

The casual conversation in the other thread about writing covered calls going into P&D was giving me hives.

I applaud the business-as-usual attitude of wheel writers, but at some point we need to adjust based on our deep AF TSLA knowledge! Maybe take a few weeks(or months) off from writing the usual CCs and stick to puts. Just until we cross $1k.

 

[jerry33]

I wonder how many button clicks they really got? In our little echo chamber it seems like most everybody, but for a "normal owner" it wasn't at all obvious that the button was added. It's not like you visit the Autopilot settings screen routinely, and on top of that the three-checkbox confirmation screen would be pretty sobering (compared to any of the other settings where you just throw a toggle switch and that's that).

They didn't get me because the upgrade failed. Grrrr.

 

[Knightshade]

The casual conversation in the other thread about writing covered calls going into P&D was giving me hives.

I applaud the business-as-usual attitude of wheel writers, but at some point we need to adjust based on our deep AF TSLA knowledge! Maybe take a few weeks(or months) off from writing the usual CCs and stick to puts. Just until we cross $1k.

Personally I switched to bull put spreads a while ago now, which lately were paying a lot more premium than selling CCs anyway.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We are at the upper BB, so I'm guessing we trade fairly flat the next couple days, before climbing end of week (when BB has had more time to move up).

I'm inclined to agree, BUT thinking about the state of our tight float and the FOMO of missing both the 3Q madness AND THEN the even crazier 4Q madness....who in their right mind is gonna wait another week to buy in?

Not talking retail. I'm talking folks who need to benchmark against the S&P and their competition. How do we think TSLA will look vs SP500 at year-end? Can large fund managers afford to be on the outside looking in on this next leg up?

I'm hanging on to 50% of my 10/8 $800 calls til I see the P&D report.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Personally I switched to bull put spreads a while ago now, which lately were paying a lot more premium than selling CCs anyway.

That's my next goal. Increase my level of personal maturity to a place where I sell BPS when SP is clearly depressed rather than buying YOLO calls. TSLA adulthood is calling me, quite frankly I need the rest.

 

[Nocturnal]

The casual conversation in the other thread about writing covered calls going into P&D was giving me hives.

I applaud the business-as-usual attitude of wheel writers, but at some point we need to adjust based on our deep AF TSLA knowledge! Maybe take a few weeks(or months) off from writing the usual CCs and stick to puts. Just until we cross $1k.

I dabble in the wheel but but have the same thoughts. This has been a long/flat base with a big Q3 surprise coming, plus the always teased EV credit. I have only sold a couple puts lately, and otherwise relying on my LEAPs and shares.

 

[Scuttlebutt]

Are we going to see $800 today??

 

[Chunky Jr.]

seems like a bunch of things are moving on the same trajectory - NASDAQ, ARKK, ARKG, AMZN, MSFT, APPL, GOOG, DIS, to name a few. Probably some progress on infrastructure

now TSLA is continuing to move up while the others are flat or turning down. So at first it looked like high tide was rising all boats, but now Tesla is breaking from the pack.

 

[Stone_Watcher]

Are we going to see $800 today??

Shhh. You’re going to spook the share price.

 

[Artful Dodger]

11:50 a.m. TSLA Check-In:

Spoiler: Higher and Higher, baby

Cheers!

 

[Scuttlebutt]

Shhh. You’re going to spook the share price.

It never listens to me anyway

 

[scaesare]

Just a heads up everyone…..that guy saying he was an Autopilot engineer that was posting information about V10.1 and other FSD info……yeah he’s a 15 yr old kid.

 

[Todd Burch]

One positive side effect of the safety scores is that you now have a large swatch of Tesla drivers trying to drive extra safe. So that will make Tesla's safety statistics (both on and off autopilot) compared to everyone else even more impressive, making any NHTSA directive (should there ever be one) look even more disconnected with reality.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Looks at my options today.........up drastically more than the stock...like 10-20% moves across the board, even for LEAPS

Looks at options volume today.......big volume

Looks at volume of shares traded today.......big volume.

Conclusion........pretty much exactly what I thought was going to happen. Wall St de-values options for as long as they can and then buys heavily into Calls/LEAPS right before big volume floods back into the stock

It's almost laughable how blatant and orchestrated the collapse in value of LEAPS were over the past month.

Edit: Now some of my LEAPS are up over 30% so far, even though the stock is only up 2.5%.......

 

[Drezil]

Note: 793.53 was the closing of 1/29/2021. At the end of Jan we went from ~900 to 793 & then back to ~900. So this was a big support in January & maybe big resistance today.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I wonder how many button clicks they really got? In our little echo chamber it seems like most everybody, but for a "normal owner" it wasn't at all obvious that the button was added. It's not like you visit the Autopilot settings screen routinely, and on top of that the three-checkbox confirmation screen would be pretty sobering (compared to any of the other settings where you just throw a toggle switch and that's that).

I can't imagine anyone that paid money for it as much as 3 years ago would not push the button. That's just me though.

Dan

 

[BornToFly]

We are at the upper BB, so I'm guessing we trade fairly flat the next couple days, before climbing end of week (when BB has had more time to move up).

Not aging very well so far, but when the SP gets above the BB too far, it always comes back below it (with a new higher, BB of course).

 

[jhm]

Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory production sprint, with a daily production of 1,600 Model Y | Google Translate

021/9/26 16:44:21 Source: House of IT Author: Q Zhou Editor: Q boat

"IT Home News on September 26 According to the previous export rules, Tesla will export a large number of exports at the beginning of each quarter. For example, this situation was similar in April and July this year, and it is expected to be the same in October.

"The current production capacity of Tesla's Shanghai plant is mainly responsible for export business. Cars in Europe can only be exported by sea at the beginning of the season. This is the case in April, July, and it is estimated that it will be the same in October.

"According to Sina, with the end of the third quarter, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory began to enter the final production sprint stage.

"As can be seen from the pictures taken by them, there are already a large number of Tesla Model Y and Model 3 cars ready to go, which also shows that the demand in the third quarter is strong.

"According to sources, Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory now produces 1,600 Model Ys per day, a significant increase from the previous month. In contrast, Tesla's Shanghai plant produced 1,000 Model Y a day in August, which is far more than the average daily Model 3 number of 800.

"IT Home learned that in August, Tesla China exported 31,379 vehicles from the Shanghai plant. In August, the domestic sales volume was 12,885 vehicles, and the wholesale sales volume reached 44,264 vehicles.

"As of August, Tesla China has exported 97,496 vehicles to more than 10 countries and regions including Europe, America, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore in 2021. According to a related person from Tesla, from the perspective of the development of the industrial chain, Tesla's Shanghai Super Factory continues to accelerate the localization process. As of the end of 2020, the localization rate of parts for Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory has reached 86%."

Does this mean Shanghai may have an annual capacity in excess of 800k units, 1600 Model Y and 800 Model 3 per day? Or does the high volume of Model Y decrease capacity for Model 3 somehow?

I'm just looking for a little confirmation that I'm not reading too much into this report.

 

[Electroman]

I suspect one week of driving data is not good enough. People can game it very easily and you can already see the chatter in twitter about that. I would look at driving pattern atleast for a month.