Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

I still predict Dec 2023 will be last month that a new ICE vehicle will be it’s own collateral for any new buyer who has to finance the purchase.

I hadn't even thought about that angle, otherwise, down payments will need to be bigger and bigger or you will need to buy gap insurance on loans for new car purchases.

Plunging resale values is going to be a huge problem for people selling ICE vehicles. This will in turn impact the sales prices of new ICE vehicles.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569450579633766402

 

[henchman24]

I continue to see signs of growth/risk stocks holding up and/or outperforming again today. Decent chance I'll be wrong, but it is definitely feeling like the market is continuing with the reallocation back into growth/risk and that yesterday (and today) has been a chance to dump "value" in favor of growth/risk. So the macro market could see some chop around this area while growth stocks continue to outperform.

I continue to be dumbfound by those predicting another massive leg down in the market, ala 2008-2009. There has to be something on the level of another Lehman's brother/financial crisis that comes out of nowhere to cause that next leg down. The Fed, inflation, etc....are already known items, more than priced into the valuation of the market at this point.

And I think those thinking Taiwan/China will be that "event" are being rather foolish considering the aftermath of Ukraine/Russia.

There are some potential black swans out there (Chinese property bubble, US housing price collapse, inflation can't get under control even with 4-5-6% rates, etc), but it is hard to say they will happen. Given the data now, a moderate recession is the most likely impactful thing on the market and if there is a strong earnings drops and a continuing multiple compression. We could see some drops. Overall though I agree, I don't see the bottom dropping out. I could see some continual re-tests rejections, and breakdowns of support/resistance. I think June was likely the low, but I wouldn't be shocked if there was a time where there was a drop beyond by 5-10%.

Speaking of support... very nice rejection of breaking below 11,600 in the last 30 minutes.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Same, it was honestly so hard to listen to after working with amazing people at Tesla and knowing how they are the true heroes of electric mobility.

somewhere these 'American' auto makers have completely lost all sense of humility.
Even if you 'think' you are better than others treat the others with respect and give credit where it is due.

@ the Freemont opening party in 2011, meeting all sorts of Tesla folks at the factory was humbling imo. All super nice people just wanting a positive change. Franz asking about what we thought of design, materials, feelings. George Blankenship was in tears & everyone seemed super honest,
Tesla will simply dominate. the game is kinda over before any opponent began playing or even really knowing what game they were playing. maybe Audi was gonna play...in 2012 with that R8 Etron?

 

[Big Time]

OK? but after hours it is still going up?
Explain it to an ant.

Gotta think longer term! but….Yes!
Once we get over the 50 day by a few percentage points it will cross, signaling many good things for the company, spuring investors to buy more.

 

[insaneoctane]

I little more info on Ford's dealership ultimatum:

...But ultimately, it's the dealer's decision what the set pricing will be for the vehicles, and there will likely be price variation from dealer to dealer.

65% Of Ford Dealers Agree To Ford's Tough EV Selling Terms

At its 2022 annual dealership meetings, Ford revealed to its dealer network the new Model e rules they are instilling for dealers that want to sell Ford's EVs.

insideevs.com

Gee, I wonder how much personal contact information you'll be required to put in before you ever see the price....

 

[insaneoctane]

I don't own or have ever owned Amazon, but Amazon is valued well IMHO as they own the cloud, as well as Google who owns the internet, like Microsoft owns enterprise, Apple owns phones, Facebook owns social and Tesla is on the cusp of owning transportation, energy and eventually autonomous AI. Tesla will be worth more than all combined eventually as Tesla has the vision, guiding principles and innovation prowess.

At least that is how I explain valuation to folks as a 101 class.

Fantastic! A concise statement with parallels that many will understand. I will use your analogy in future conversations!

 

[Drumheller]

While driving earlier, I encountered a situation where I needed a tight grip on the steering wheel with both hands. I didn't have autopilot engaged at the time, but I wanted to maintain control in case it decided to activate and attempt to run over the stationary child.

 

[GOVA]

There are some potential black swans out there (Chinese property bubble, US housing price collapse, inflation can't get under control even with 4-5-6% rates, etc), but it is hard to say they will happen. Given the data now, a moderate recession is the most likely impactful thing on the market and if there is a strong earnings drops and a continuing multiple compression. We could see some drops. Overall though I agree, I don't see the bottom dropping out. I could see some continual re-tests rejections, and breakdowns of support/resistance. I think June was likely the low, but I wouldn't be shocked if there was a time where there was a drop beyond by 5-10%.

Speaking of support... very nice rejection of breaking below 11,600 in the last 30 minutes.

I think you did forget the meteor impact and/or Vlad's nukes.

 

[elasalle]

somewhere these 'American' auto makers have completely lost all sense of humility.
Even if you 'think' you are better than others treat the others with respect and give credit where it is due.

@ the Freemont opening party in 2011, meeting all sorts of Tesla folks at the factory was humbling imo. All super nice people just wanting a positive change. Franz asking about what we thought of design, materials, feelings. George Blankenship was in tears & everyone seemed super honest,
Tesla will simply dominate. the game is kinda over before any opponent began playing or even really knowing what game they were playing. maybe Audi was gonna play...in 2012 with that R8 Etron?

Reminds me of an Elon quote i saw on twitter ... "If your customers want you to succeed, you probably will".

 

[M|S|M MYP]

After the president's hyper-UAW speech this afternoon at the Detroit Auto Show, I wrote the following comment to the White House website. Others may want to do the same:

If you believe that the crooked UAW is vital to fight the past and potential injustices of the Detroit automakers, then publicly applaud the newer American automakers such as Tesla, who treat their workers so well that those workers choose not to become part of a union.

White House - Contact Form

Done

 

[jkirkwood001]

TSLA's +3.59% was the best gainer today of 33 largest cap global stocks (higher was Airbnb [+4.33%] in 34th place but worth 10 times less than TSLA):

Largest tech companies by market cap

List of the largest tech companies by market capitalization, all rankings are updated daily.

companiesmarketcap.com

 

[Nocturnal]

somewhere these 'American' auto makers have completely lost all sense of humility.
Even if you 'think' you are better than others treat the others with respect and give credit where it is due.

Same vibe.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And right on cue.......CNBC out with a (rather weak) attempt at a hit piece. Pretty damn funny they consider " Tesla struggles with Elon Musk’s strict return-to-office policy" to be breaking news

If you actually bother to read the article, it borders on the famous Fred article about toilet paper.......it shouldn't be a surprise at who the author of the article is

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla won't quit trying to expand in Germany, but I really wouldn't mind if they put it on the shelf and went elsewhere.

Absolutely not. Just be patient. This locale was a brilliant choice despite the bureaucracy and shenanigans. Tesla didn’t get to this point by giving up on the tough stuff. The Germans will come around and as the German ICE OEMs implode, Tesla will single-handedly save the whole country. Wait for it. The German government is going to be able to let the others die instead of propping them up because Tesla is there. Additionally, the product that that factory is putting out is already getting rave reviews for quality. It’ll be worth it in the end and work out.

 

[Prunesquallor]

View attachment 852270

Somewhat serious follow-up from the cartoonist:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570080649985560582

 

[Discoducky]

somewhere these 'American' auto makers have completely lost all sense of humility.
Even if you 'think' you are better than others treat the others with respect and give credit where it is due.

@ the Freemont opening party in 2011, meeting all sorts of Tesla folks at the factory was humbling imo. All super nice people just wanting a positive change. Franz asking about what we thought of design, materials, feelings. George Blankenship was in tears & everyone seemed super honest,
Tesla will simply dominate. the game is kinda over before any opponent began playing or even really knowing what game they were playing. maybe Audi was gonna play...in 2012 with that R8 Etron?

That was a great event! And I remember how Steve Jobs died just before. Lots of folks talking about how Elon could be the next tech visionary and when I heard him talk I was really intrigued. Took the tour, ride in my future car and I knew, without a shadow of a doubt, this was the future and I was going to be a part of it no matter what.

 

[OrthoSurg]

So yesterday was a bear trap, indeed.

 

[Ogre]

Somewhat serious follow-up from the cartoonist:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570080649985560582

Why do I suspect Scott Adams drives a Tesla.

 

[Ogre]

Gotta think longer term! but….Yes!
Once we get over the 50 day by a few percentage points it will cross, signaling many good things for the company, spuring investors to buy more.

I nit-pick. A hair split. A pedantism if you will.

"Signaling good things for shareholders"

The company will be largely unaffected save how much happier employees will be due to the above.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Red Alert!!! Tesla going down the tubes! This is literally the top business story today on the CNBC app. ILol

I wonder how much it costs to get this "written" and pasted up there. Not clicking, but I bet Lolora "wrote" it.